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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6ATL
CLE

CLE

8-6

5
11
ATL

ATL

9-5

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
40,363 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATL no-vig %

55.9%

open 55.9%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL59.9%51.9%ATL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 9 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

CLE 5 · ATL 11 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0001100305
ATL0010062211

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

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↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+117

Close price

+117

Open no-vig

44.1%

Close no-vig

44.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -141

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Cleveland Guardians, 11–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Kyle Manzardo

Kyle Manzardo

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Michael Harris II

Michael Harris II

CF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE8-6
5
11
ATL9-5
CLE8-6·ATL9-5
CLE

CLE

8-6

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
2-44020011
SPRINT26.530
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
1-44110010
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
0-44000011
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-44111102
SPRINT25.411
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-44111001
SPRINT24.96
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
1-44110000
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33000000
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
2-44122000
SPRINT27.765
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000010
Team8-3434584155
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. CecconiS. Cecconi★SP
5.1754132
M. FestaM. FestaRP
0.2322001
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
1.0222210
K. AllardK. AllardRP
1.0322010
Team8.0151110353
ATL

ATL

9-5

11
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-55122100
SPRINT26.838
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
2-55221001
SPRINT26.632
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
1-44212110
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
2-44121010
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
0-44100012
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
1-44011001
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
3-44232000
SPRINT25.716
M. Harris IIM. Harris II★CF
2-44122101
SPRINT27.148
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
2-44120000
Team15-3838111511335
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ElderB. Elder★SP
4.2422331
A. BummerA. BummerRP
0.1000000
T. KinleyT. KinleyRP
1.0000000
D. LeeD. LeeRP
1.0000010
J. SuarezJ. SuarezRP
0.2433110
J. PayampsJ. PayampsRP
0.1000000
O. BidoO. BidoRP
1.0000100
Team9.0855551

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • S. Cecconi
    85 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      35%·93.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CU
      24%·73.4 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      24%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      12%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·79.2 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Pallette
    37 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      51%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      32%·82.0 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Allard
    18 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      50%·89.6 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      28%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·89.7 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      6%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      6%·72.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Festa
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • ST
      59%·81.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·90.5 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • B. Elder
    76 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      38%·83.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Suarez
    31 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      39%·84.3 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      39%·94.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      16%·83.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
  • O. Bido
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      64%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·89.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Kinley
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      70%·86.9 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      30%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lee
    7 pitches·71% CSW
    • FF
      71%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·84.7 mph·50% whiff
  • A. Bummer
    6 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      33%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      17%·80.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Payamps
    3 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      67%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·84.8 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

15

5

Runs

11

1

Errors

1

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 10CLECLE5@ATLATL11today
Apr 11CLECLE6@ATLATL0
Apr 12CLECLE1@ATLATL13

Season series

ATL leads series 1-0

Apr 10CLECLE5@ATLATL11today
Apr 11CLECLE6@ATLATL0
Apr 12CLECLE1@ATLATL13

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+11746%
ATLATL-14159%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 20pp · Bottom 6th Inning

CLECLE
K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

S. Cecconi

S. Cecconi

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
M. Harris II

M. Harris II

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

B. Elder

B. Elder

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATL beat CLE 11-5. Acu's play in the bottom 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Win probability

ATL vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 80% WP

Acu · ña Jr. singled to center, Smith scored, Harris II to third.

CLETop 5th Inning · 2-1
+18pp→ 66% WP

Kwan · singled to left, Martínez scored on fielding error by left fielder Yastrzemski, Kwan to second, Rocchio safe at third.

ATLBottom 6th Inning · 2-2
+20pp→ 66% WP

Acu · ña Jr. homered to left (411 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0001100305
ATL00100622—11

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · ATL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Acu 1

1
0

Inn 4

Manzardo 1

1
0

Inn 5

Kwan 1

0
6

Inn 6

Olson 2

0
2

Inn 7

Albies 1

3
2

Inn 8

Mart 2

Baldwin 1

0

Inn 9

CLE
ATL

Play-by-play · 593 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  2. T9

    Ramírez flied out to center.

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  9. T9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  10. T9

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  11. T9

    DeLauter grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Kwan out at second.

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

    +0.5pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  16. T9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Chase DeLauter

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  17. T9

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  18. T9

    Kwan walked.

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 4

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  23. T9

    Osvaldo Bido pitches to Steven Kwan

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  24. T9

    Bido relieved Payamps

    ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  27. B8

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  28. B8

    Yastrzemski struck out swinging.

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 5·ATL 11

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

5

Runs

11

8

Hits

15

1

Errors

1

12

TB

26

1

HR

3

5

BB

3

5

K

5

13

LOB

15

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 8.5·CLE +117/ATL -141

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    50.3%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.6%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.6%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.35 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 12, 26sim 98
    51
    15(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    812
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 93
    1610
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 92
    58
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 92
    168
    4(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 92
    88
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs