Matchup orbital
1
CIN
CIN
16-9
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
6
TB
TB
13-11
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TB wins
CIN 1 · TB 6 (by 5)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked CIN +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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CIN16-9
CIN
13-11TB
TB
Recap · MLB
ampa Bay Rays held off Cincinnati Reds, 6–1.
TB -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
CIN wins series 2-1
CIN6@TB1CIN12@TB6CIN1@TB6todaySeason series
CIN wins series 2-1
CIN6@TB1CIN12@TB6CIN1@TB6todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
CIN+11946%TB-14359%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 3 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 10pp · Bottom 2nd Inning
CIN
S. Steer
LFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS
B. Williamson
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 7 H · 3 BB
TB
R. Vilade
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS
N. Martinez
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
8.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB
How it ended
TB beat CIN 6-1.
Win probability
TB vs CIN
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWilliamson · singled to center, Vilade scored, DeLuca to third.
Steer · doubled to center, Lowe to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | — | 6 |
Period scoring
CIN won 0 · TB won 3
Inn 1
Inn 2
Williamson 1
Inn 3
Caminero 1
Inn 4
Inn 5
Higgins 1
Vilade 1
Inn 6
Inn 7
Caminero 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
- T5
Friedl grounded into fielder's choice to first, Benson to second, Steer out at home.
CIN 1·TB 4
+6pp
- T5
Steer doubled to center, Lowe to third.
CIN 0·TB 4
−7pp
- T4
McLain singled to left.
CIN 0·TB 4
−4pp
- B3
Caminero homered to right center (404 feet).
CIN 0·TB 4
+4pp
- B2
Díaz singled to center, Williamson scored, Walls to third.
CIN 0·TB 3
+6pp
- B2
Williamson singled to center, Vilade scored, DeLuca to third.
CIN 0·TB 1
+10pp
Team stats
CIN
Away
Stat
TB
Home
5
Hits
9
1
Errors
0
1
Runs
6
Player box score
CIN
16-9
T. Friedl★
CF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
M. McLain★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
E. De La Cruz★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Stewart★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
E. Suarez★
3B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Lowe★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Steer★
LF
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
W. Benson★
RF
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
P.J. Higgins★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
H-AB
5-31
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T. Friedl★CF | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
M. McLain★2B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
E. De La Cruz★SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
S. Stewart★1B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
E. Suarez★3B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
N. Lowe★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
S. Steer★LF | 1-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
W. Benson★RF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
P.J. Higgins★C | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 5-31 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
B. Williamson★
SP
IP
4.1
H
7
ER
5
K
3
C. Phillips
RP
IP
2.0
H
2
ER
1
K
1
T. Santillan
RP
IP
0.2
H
0
ER
0
K
0
B. Burke
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0
IP
8.0
H
9
ER
6
K
4
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
B. Williamson★SP | 4.1 | 7 | 5 | 3 |
C. PhillipsRP | 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
T. SantillanRP | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
B. BurkeRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 8.0 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
TB
13-11
Y. Diaz★
1B
OPS
1.500
H-AB
3-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
J. Aranda★
1B
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Caminero★
3B
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
R. Vilade★
RF
OPS
2.000
H-AB
2-2
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
J. DeLuca★
RF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Williamson★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
C. Simpson★
LF
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
N. Fortes★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Walls★
SS
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Palacios
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
9-29
R
6
RBI
6
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Y. Diaz★1B | 3-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.500 |
J. Aranda★1B | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
J. Caminero★3B | 1-4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.250 |
R. Vilade★RF | 2-2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.000 |
J. DeLuca★RF | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
B. Williamson★2B | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
C. Simpson★LF | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
N. Fortes★C | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
T. Walls★SS | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
R. Palacios2B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 9-29 | 6 | 6 | 1 | — |
N. Martinez★
SP
IP
8.0
H
5
ER
1
K
6
K. Kelly
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
IP
9.0
H
5
ER
1
K
7
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
N. Martinez★SP | 8.0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
K. KellyRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 8.5·CIN +119/TB -143