Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at TB?

The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 22, 2026

FINAL+5TB

CIN

16-9

13-11

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

15,546 attended

Line movement

40 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TB no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
47.7%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.7%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.5%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CIN at TB?: The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TB vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.0± 2.4medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium
Shane McClanahanTB
5.0± 2.3low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.2± 0.9high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.1± 0.8high
Blake DunnCIN
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Elly De La CruzCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Noelvi MarteCIN
1.8± 1.7high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
1.6± 2.7high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 2.1high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.7± 1.9high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.6± 3.3low
Brady SingerCIN
2.5± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

.700

OPS

.718

▶

.715

.309

OBP

.319

▶

.333

4.23

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.37

4.53

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.88

1.45

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.22

8.0

K / 9

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

CIN 1 · TB 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
TB	0	3	1	0	1	0	1	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.161	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.211	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Stewart1B	.297	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
E. SuarezDH	.231	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.233	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. SteerLF	.221	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. BensonRF	.176	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
P.J. HigginsC	.200	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
Team		31	1	5	1	0	1	7

Player

.161

.211

.265

.297

.231

.233

.221

.176

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WilliamsonSP	4.1	7	5	5	3	3	87
C. PhillipsRP	2.0	2	1	1	0	1	29
T. SantillanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
B. BurkeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	8.0	9	6	6	3	4	131

Player

4.1

2.0

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.340	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
J. Aranda1B	.224	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. Caminero3B	.260	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.286	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
J. DeLucaRF	.280	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
B. Williamson2B	.242	4	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.323	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
N. FortesC	.290	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. WallsSS	.208	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.263	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	6	9	6	1	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	8.0	5	1	1	1	6	95
K. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	7	108

Team

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TB vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

TB vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.