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FINAL+6MIN
BOS

BOS

6-11

0
6
MIN

MIN

11-7

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota
16,220 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

43.7%

open 43.7%

+2.0+1.0MIN SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL47.7%39.7%MIN NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

BOS 0 · MIN 6 (by 6)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000000000
MIN101301006

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    22
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    166
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    123
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    144
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 96
    145
    3(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    281
    6(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesMIN wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -143

Recap · MLB

Minnesota Twins held off Boston Red Sox, 6–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

MIN +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Roman Anthony

Roman Anthony

LF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MIN · top performer

MIN
Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton

CF

2.800OPS

5-4

AB-H

4

R

2

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS6-11
0
6
MIN11-7
BOS6-11·MIN11-7
BOS

BOS

6-11

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
2-44020001
SPRINT27.457
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
0-33000010
SPRINT28.175
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
2-44020000
SPRINT26.123
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
0-11000001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000001
T. StoryT. Story★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT27.969
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44000001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-44000004
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT27.560
A. MonasterioA. MonasterioSS
0-22000002
Team6-33330600112
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
4.0955112
JJ. AndersonRP
3.0111141
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000030
Team8.01066283
MIN

MIN

11-7

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
4-55442201
SPRINT29.597
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-33012011
SPRINT26.632
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
2-44021000
SPRINT28.688
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
0-44000000
M. WallnerM. Wallner★RF
0-33000011
V. CaratiniV. Caratini★C
0-33000001
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
1-33010001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
1-44111101
SPRINT26.428
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
1-44110002
SPRINT26.428
Team10-33336106328
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. AbelM. Abel★SP
7.04000100
T. RogersT. RogersRP
1.0100110
C. SandsC. SandsRP
1.0100010
Team9.06001120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • S. Gray
    93 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      23%·79.8 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      19%·91.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      17%·87.9 mph·27% whiff
    • ST
      14%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.5 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Anderson
    52 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      40%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      29%·82.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      15%·77.7 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      10%·82.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·79.0 mph·100% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      45%·98.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      32%·98.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      5%·92.5 mph·— whiff

MIN

  • M. Abel
    90 pitches·38% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.9 mph·32% whiff
    • SL
      19%·88.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      17%·87.8 mph·29% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.7 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.9 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      7%·93.3 mph·25% whiff
  • T. Rogers
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • SI
      36%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      32%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      32%·79.4 mph·17% whiff
  • C. Sands
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      73%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      7%·88.8 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

0

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

MIN wins series 2-1

Apr 13BOSBOS6@MINMIN13
Apr 14BOSBOS0@MINMIN6today
Apr 15BOSBOS9@MINMIN5

Season series

MIN leads series 2-0

Apr 13BOSBOS6@MINMIN13
Apr 14BOSBOS0@MINMIN6today
Apr 15BOSBOS9@MINMIN5
May 22MINMIN8@BOSBOS6
May 23MINMIN4@BOSBOS2
May 24MINMIN6@BOSBOS5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-14359%
MINMIN+11946%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ MIN

Biggest swing: 13pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

BOSBOS
R. Anthony

R. Anthony

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

J. Anderson

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

MINMIN
B. Buxton

B. Buxton

CF

Batter of the game2-HR game

4-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.800 OPS

M. Abel

M. Abel

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.0 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 4 H

How it ended

MIN beat BOS 6-0.

Win probability

MIN vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
MINBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+8pp→ 62% WP

Keaschall · singled to center, Buxton scored.

MINBottom 3rd Inning · 0-2
+13pp→ 75% WP

Buxton · homered to left (401 feet).

MINBottom 4th Inning · 0-3
+12pp→ 86% WP

Lee · homered to right (371 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000000000
MIN10130100—6

Period scoring

BOS won 0 · MIN won 4

0
1

Inn 1

Keaschall 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Buxton 1

0
3

Inn 4

Larnach 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Buxton 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

BOS
MIN

Play-by-play · 556 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  2. T9

    Narváez struck out looking.

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  7. T9

    Story to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  8. T9

    Story to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  9. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  10. T9

    Cole Sands pitches to Carlos Narvaez

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  11. T9

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  12. T9

    Duran lined out to center.

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  15. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  16. T9

    Cole Sands pitches to Jarren Duran

    · ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  17. T9

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  18. T9

    Story reached on infield single to shortstop.

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  23. T9

    Cole Sands pitches to Trevor Story

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  24. T9

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  25. T9

    Abreu grounded out to first.

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  29. T9

    Cole Sands pitches to Wilyer Abreu

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

  30. T9

    Sands relieved Rogers

    ·

    BOS 0·MIN 6

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

0

Runs

6

6

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

7

TB

19

0

HR

3

1

BB

2

12

K

8

13

LOB

13

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8·BOS -143/MIN +119

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

MIN vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.5± 2.7high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Connor PrielippMIN
    2.7± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    47.6%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    46.7%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    47.2%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872