
STL
25-18

ATH
22-21
Line movement
200 snapshots
ATH spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 9.5
open O/U 10.0 · -0.5
ATH no-vig %
51.5%
open 52.2% · -0.7
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
STL wins
STL 5 · ATH 4 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked STL +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| ATH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Line shopping · 1 book
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+18.7pp
best edge · ATH · DraftKings
STL
no live price
ATH
★ bestedge +18.7pp · implied 20.1%
| Book | STL | ATH | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -567 | +367★ | +18.7 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
The receipts
+1.19
CLV pp
Open price
+100
Close price
-105
Open no-vig
47.8%
Close no-vig
49.0%
Market came to the model · Graded: hit
Recap · MLB
t. Louis Cardinals went into Athletics and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.
ATH +1.5 cashed (STL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 1.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
STL · top performer

Victor Scott II
CF
3-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
ATH · top performer

Nick Kurtz
1B
3-2
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


STL
25-18
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.891 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT29.798 | ||||||||
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9-35 | 35 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
ATH
22-21
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 3-5 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.148 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT28.891 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 10-36 | 36 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantSTL
ATH
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
9
Hits
10
5
Runs
4
0
Errors
2
Current series
STL wins series 2-1
Season series
STL wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
STL -1.5
1.5pt· 6.5h
Total
10.0
High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg
0.5pt· 6.5h
Moneyline
3· 6.5h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
10.0
-0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 9th Inning
V. Scott II
CFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS
M. McGreevy
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB
N. Kurtz
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS
J. Lopez
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB
How it ended
STL beat ATH 5-4. Walker's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
ATH vs STL
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactLangeliers · singled to center, McNeil scored and Thomas scored, Kurtz to second.
Walker · doubled to right, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.
Kurtz · hit by pitch.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 |
| ATH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Period scoring
STL won 3 · ATH won 2
Inn 1
Kurtz 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
II 1
Inn 6
Walker 1
Inn 7
Langeliers 2
Inn 8
Inn 9
Herrera 1
Play-by-play · 590 plays
End of the 9th inning
STL 5·ATH 4
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Rooker struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
−12pp
Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Riley O'Brien pitches to Brent Rooker
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Soderstrom flied out to center.BIG MOMENT
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
−15pp
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Riley O'Brien pitches to Tyler Soderstrom
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Iván Herrera challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Shea Langeliers called out on strikes.BIG MOMENT
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
−14pp
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
Riley O'Brien pitches to Shea Langeliers
· ·
STL 5·ATH 4
·
STL 5·ATH 4
Kurtz hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT
·
STL 5·ATH 4
+16pp
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 4 : Ball 2
·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 3 : Ball 1
·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
STL 5·ATH 4
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
STL 5·ATH 4
Riley O'Brien pitches to Nick Kurtz
·
STL 5·ATH 4
O'Brien relieved Svanson
·
STL 5·ATH 4
Team stats
STL
Away
Stat
ATH
Home
5
Runs
4
9
Hits
10
0
Errors
2
17
TB
17
2
HR
2
3
BB
3
4
K
8
17
LOB
21
Betting line
STL -1.5·O/U 10·STL +101/ATH -122
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
4 of 13 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
122
projections · 82 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.8%
ensemble · STL favored
Elo Static
47.8%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.5%
P(ATH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.3%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.68 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
89% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.