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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
STL

STL

25-18

5
4
ATH

ATH

22-21

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
8,975 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 10.0 · -0.5

ATH no-vig %

51.5%

open 52.2% · -0.7

+2.0-2.0ATH SPREADO/U 10.5O/U 9.0TOTAL56.2%47.5%ATH NO-VIG %May 13, 5 PMMay 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 5 · ATH 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000120025
ATH1000003004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.7pp

best edge · ATH · DraftKings

STL

no live price

ATH

★ best
+367DraftKings

edge +18.7pp · implied 20.1%

BookSTLATHBest edge
DraftKings-567+367★+18.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.19

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

49.0%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, May 14·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasATH -122

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Athletics and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ATH +1.5 cashed (STL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 10.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Victor Scott II

Victor Scott II

CF

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

ATH · top performer

ATH
Nick Kurtz

Nick Kurtz

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Athletics · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL25-18
5
4
ATH22-21
STL25-18·ATH22-21
STL

STL

25-18

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-33100012
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-55011000
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-55122100
SPRINT28.891
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-33110010
SPRINT2872
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-44011010
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-33000001
Y. PozoY. Pozo★C
3-44030000
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-44000000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
1-33111101
SPRINT29.798
A. BurlesonA. Burleson1B
0-11000000
Team9-3535595234
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. McGreevyM. McGreevy★SP
6.0511131
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.1122111
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
0.2311100
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.0100020
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0000020
Team9.01044382
ATH

ATH

22-21

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
2-33121111
SPRINT26.632
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
3-55032002
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
0-55000000
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
1-44010011
SPRINT27.148
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
0-33000001
H. BolteH. Bolte★CF
1-44010001
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
2-44121100
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
0-33100011
D. HernaizD. Hernaiz★SS
0-22000000
M. StefanicM. Stefanic2B
0-11000000
C. ThomasC. ThomasRF
1-22110001
Team10-36364104238
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LopezJ. Lopez★SP
5.0432322
J. SternerJ. SternerRP
1.0100000
M. Leiter Jr.M. Leiter Jr.RP
1.0000020
S. BarlowS. BarlowRP
1.0100000
J. PerkinsJ. PerkinsRP
0.2322000
J. KuhnelJ. KuhnelRP
0.1000000
Team9.0954342

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • M. McGreevy
    74 pitches·22% CSW
    • ST
      23%·80.4 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      19%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·76.5 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      9%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·82.2 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Romero
    17 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      53%·93.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      24%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      50%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      19%·88.1 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    16 pitches·44% CSW
    • ST
      56%·84.4 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      38%·98.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      38%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      31%·91.8 mph·67% whiff
    • ST
      31%·85.9 mph·50% whiff

ATH

  • J. Lopez
    86 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      41%·77.4 mph·5% whiff
    • FF
      35%·90.0 mph·15% whiff
    • FC
      13%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      9%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      2%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Perkins
    23 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      43%·84.9 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      13%·88.9 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Leiter Jr.
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • FS
      33%·84.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      27%·74.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      20%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·90.5 mph·— whiff
  • S. Barlow
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • CU
      50%·76.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      33%·79.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      17%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Sterner
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FC
      45%·89.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      36%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      18%·81.1 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Kuhnel
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      63%·93.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      25%·88.6 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.3 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

May 13STLSTL6@ATHATH4
May 14STLSTL2@ATHATH6
May 14STLSTL5@ATHATH4today

Season series

STL wins series 2-1

May 13STLSTL6@ATHATH4
May 14STLSTL2@ATHATH6
May 14STLSTL5@ATHATH4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.5h

Total

10.0

High-scoring · +1.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

STLSTL+10150%
ATHATH-12255%

↗3· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

10.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ ATH

Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 9th Inning

STLSTL
V. Scott II

V. Scott II

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

M. McGreevy

M. McGreevy

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

ATHATH
N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

J. Lopez

J. Lopez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

STL beat ATH 5-4. Walker's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

ATH vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 7th Inning · 3-4
+24pp→ 82% WP

Langeliers · singled to center, McNeil scored and Thomas scored, Kurtz to second.

STLTop 9th Inning · 5-4
+34pp→ 80% WP

Walker · doubled to right, Wetherholt scored, Herrera to third.

ATHBottom 9th Inning · 5-4
+16pp→ 41% WP

Kurtz · hit by pitch.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000120025
ATH1000003004

Period scoring

STL won 3 · ATH won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Kurtz 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

II 1

2
0

Inn 6

Walker 1

0
3

Inn 7

Langeliers 2

0
0

Inn 8

2
0

Inn 9

Herrera 1

STL
ATH

Play-by-play · 590 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 5·ATH 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  3. B9

    Rooker struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

    −12pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  7. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Brent Rooker

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  8. B9

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  9. B9

    Soderstrom flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

    −15pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  13. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Tyler Soderstrom

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  14. B9

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  15. B9

    Iván Herrera challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Shea Langeliers called out on strikes.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

    −14pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  20. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Shea Langeliers

    · ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  21. B9

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  22. B9

    Kurtz hit by pitch.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

    +16pp

  23. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  29. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Nick Kurtz

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

  30. B9

    O'Brien relieved Svanson

    ·

    STL 5·ATH 4

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

5

Runs

4

9

Hits

10

0

Errors

2

17

TB

17

2

HR

2

3

BB

3

4

K

8

17

LOB

21

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 10·STL +101/ATH -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 3, 26sim 96
    227
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    296
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 17, 26sim 96
    226
    23(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 95
    242
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 95
    257
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    25
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 13 players in cohort
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Zack GelofATH · 3B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

ATH vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Luis SeverinoATH
    6.0± 3.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    4.8± 2.0low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.9± 2.2high
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Luis SeverinoATH
    2.7± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    47.8%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    44.5%

    P(ATH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.3%

    P(ATH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.68 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.