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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2STL
STL

STL

12-8

7
5
HOU

HOU

8-14

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
33,319 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

HOU no-vig %

57.3%

open 57.3%

-1.0-2.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL61.3%53.3%HOU NO-VIG %May 2, 9 AMMay 28, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

STL 7 · HOU 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL2020011107
HOU1000000135

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 20, 26sim 99
    17
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 97
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 97
    18
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 97
    15
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    249
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 95
    183
    1(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

HOU vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Cam SmithHOU
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    51.8%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    52.4%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.67 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Sat, Apr 18·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 3-0/VegasHOU -149

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals went into Houston Astros and beat them, 7–5.

STL +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Jose Fermin

Jose Fermin

LF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL12-8
7
5
HOU8-14
STL12-8·HOU8-14
STL

STL

12-8

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-33110011
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44110002
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-55121100
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44010012
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
2-55122000
SPRINT257
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-55112103
SPRINT2872
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
0-33100010
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
1-44010002
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
1-33111111
SPRINT27.148
Team10-363671063411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PallanteA. Pallante★SP
5.0311351
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
2.0000010
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.0011310
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
0.1133211
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
0.2000010
Team9.0455892
HOU

HOU

8-14

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44100012
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-44121111
SPRINT24.64
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-22000021
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000001
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-44000001
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
1-44010001
SPRINT2744
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-22100020
SPRINT29.395
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-22100020
S. WhitcombS. Whitcomb★3B
1-44113102
Team4-3030544289
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. McCullers Jr.L. McCullers Jr.★SP
5.0544341
CC. GordonSP
2.2433152
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.1100020
Team9.010774113

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • A. Pallante
    87 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      34%·95.1 mph·18% whiff
    • SL
      28%·87.3 mph·22% whiff
    • KC
      20%·77.1 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      15%·94.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      3%·88.1 mph·— whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    26 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      54%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·89.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      15%·83.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      4%·94.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Svanson
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      58%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      29%·93.0 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      13%·87.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Soriano
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      41%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      18%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·85.8 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      12%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      12%·84.2 mph·— whiff
  • R. O'Brien
    7 pitches·57% CSW
    • SI
      57%·99.7 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      29%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      14%·90.6 mph·100% whiff

HOU

  • L. McCullers Jr.
    91 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      24%·82.4 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      23%·90.8 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      22%·88.8 mph·10% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.7 mph·22% whiff
    • KC
      12%·81.7 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      1%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Gordon
    64 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      33%·81.6 mph·10% whiff
    • FF
      28%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·83.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      2%·75.6 mph·— whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.7 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      19%·84.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      6%·78.4 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      6%·88.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

4

7

Runs

5

0

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 3-0

Apr 18STLSTL9@HOUHOU4
Apr 18STLSTL7@HOUHOU5today
Apr 19STLSTL7@HOUHOU5

Season series

STL leads series 2-0

Apr 18STLSTL9@HOUHOU4
Apr 18STLSTL7@HOUHOU5today
Apr 19STLSTL7@HOUHOU5

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+12445%
HOUHOU-14960%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 19pp · Top 3rd Inning

STLSTL
J. Fermin

J. Fermin

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

L. McCullers Jr.

L. McCullers Jr.

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

STL beat HOU 7-5. Winn's play in the top 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 69% WP

Gorman · singled to right, Herrera scored on error and Wetherholt scored, Gorman safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Smith, Walker safe at third on error.

HOUBottom 1st Inning · 2-1
+10pp→ 48% WP

Alvarez · homered to center (421 feet).

STLTop 3rd Inning · 4-1
+19pp→ 75% WP

Winn · homered to left (373 feet), Gorman scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL2020011107
HOU1000000135

Period scoring

STL won 4 · HOU won 1

2
1

Inn 1

Gorman 2

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 2

2
0

Inn 3

Winn 2

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Ferm 1

1
0

Inn 7

Burleson 1

1
1

Inn 8

Wetherholt 1

Walker 1

0
3

Inn 9

Whitcomb 3

STL
HOU

Play-by-play · 626 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    STL 7·HOU 5

  2. B9

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  3. B9

    Alvarez struck out swinging.

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

    −2pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  8. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  9. B9

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  10. B9

    Altuve grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

    −4pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  14. B9

    Riley O'Brien pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  15. B9

    O'Brien relieved Soriano

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  16. B9

    ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  17. B9

    Whitcomb homered to center (407 feet), Smith scored and Vázquez scored.

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

    +4pp

  18. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  22. B9

    George Soriano pitches to Shay Whitcomb

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 5

  23. B9

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  24. B9

    Vázquez walked, Smith to second.

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

    +1pp

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 7·HOU 2

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

7

Runs

5

10

Hits

4

0

Errors

1

21

TB

11

3

HR

2

4

BB

8

11

K

9

20

LOB

12

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 9·STL +124/HOU -149

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872