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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8COL
HOU

HOU

6-7

1
9
COL

COL

6-6

Coors Field · Denver, Colorado
15,189 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

COL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 11.0

open O/U 11.0

COL no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0COL SPREADO/U 11.5O/U 10.5TOTAL48.9%40.9%COL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = COL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

HOU 1 · COL 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0100000001
COL150101019

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 93
    181
    27(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 92
    299
    27(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 89
    292
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 89
    135
    27(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 88
    187
    27(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 87
    1310
    27(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesCOL wins series 3-0/VegasHOU -136

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies held off Houston Astros, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

COL +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 11.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU6-7
1
9
COL6-6
HOU6-7·COL6-6
HOU

HOU

6-7

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PenaJ. Pena★SS
1-55010001
SPRINT28.483
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT24.64
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.867
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-33100010
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
2-44020000
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000002
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
1-44010002
J. MeyersJ. Meyers★CF
0-00000000
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
1-44010000
B. MatthewsB. MatthewsCF
1-33011011
SPRINT28.278
Team8-3535181026
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. JavierC. Javier★SP
1.0311010
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0455300
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
2.0211121
C. RoaC. RoaRP
1.2011310
K. TengK. TengRP
1.1000010
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.0111220
Team8.01099971
COL

COL

6-6

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
2-44222010
SPRINT26.225
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
1-33111001
SPRINT27.148
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-33011010
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
1-22311120
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-22001011
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
2-55021002
SPRINT27.867
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
2-44121010
SPRINT26.326
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
1-55110003
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-22100020
Team10-30309108197
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
5.2711240
Z. AgnosZ. AgnosRP
3.1100020
Team9.0811260

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • E. De Los Santos
    42 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      40%·93.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      36%·85.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      24%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    39 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      26%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Roa
    34 pitches·12% CSW
    • SL
      38%·86.3 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      35%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • B. Abreu
    22 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      55%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      45%·85.8 mph·20% whiff
  • C. Javier
    20 pitches·15% CSW
    • FF
      75%·92.6 mph·18% whiff
    • ST
      25%·78.7 mph·0% whiff
  • K. Teng
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      33%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      33%·85.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·84.3 mph·0% whiff

COL

  • M. Lorenzen
    100 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      23%·89.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      20%·83.9 mph·30% whiff
    • CU
      14%·82.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.9 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      12%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
  • Z. Agnos
    44 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      25%·95.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      14%·84.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      9%·87.0 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

10

1

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

COL wins series 3-0

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9today

Season series

COL leads series 3-0

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9today
Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

11.0

High-scoring · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU-13658%
COLCOL+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

11.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ COL

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 2nd Inning

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

E. De Los Santos

E. De Los Santos

RP

Top reliever

2.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

M. Lorenzen

M. Lorenzen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

COL beat HOU 9-1.

Win probability

COL vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 62% WP

Freeman · singled to left, Julien scored.

HOUTop 2nd Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 56% WP

Matthews · singled to left, Paredes scored, Walker to second.

COLBottom 2nd Inning · 1-3
+10pp→ 77% WP

Julien · singled to left, Doyle scored, Johnston scored and Johnston scored, Karros to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0100000001
COL15010101—9

Period scoring

HOU won 0 · COL won 5

0
1

Inn 1

Freeman 1

1
5

Inn 2

Matthews 1

Julien 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Goodman 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Rumfield 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Johnston 1

0

Inn 9

HOU
COL

Play-by-play · 621 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  2. T9

    Peña grounded out to third.

    · ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  6. T9

    Vázquez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  7. T9

    Vázquez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  9. T9

    Zach Agnos pitches to Jeremy Pena

    · ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  10. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  11. T9

    Vázquez singled to center.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  13. T9

    Zach Agnos pitches to Christian Vazquez

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  14. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  15. T9

    Matthews struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  21. T9

    Zach Agnos pitches to Brice Matthews

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  22. T9

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  23. T9

    Loperfido struck out swinging.

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  24. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  25. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

  30. T9

    Zach Agnos pitches to Joey Loperfido

    ·

    HOU 1·COL 9

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

COL

Home

1

Runs

9

8

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

8

TB

16

0

HR

1

2

BB

9

6

K

7

14

LOB

20

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 11·HOU -136/COL +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

COL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 73 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    4.8± 2.8low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Troy JohnstonCOL
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.6± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Willi CastroCOL
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.3± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.1%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    39.3%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.8%

    P(COL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    38.3%

    P(COL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · LF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Jeremy PenaHOU · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872