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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
TEX

TEX

21-23

0
2
HOU

HOU

18-28

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
32,555 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

PK

open PK

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

+0.5-0.5HOU SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL54.0%46.0%HOU NO-VIG %May 14, 4 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

TEX 0 · HOU 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
TEX0000000000
HOU001000012

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.3pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best
-114DraftKings

edge +10.3pp · implied 51.0%

HOU

no live price

BookTEXHOUBest edge
DraftKings-114★-105+10.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 96
    131
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    123
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 11, 26sim 92
    123
    18(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 92
    53
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 92
    143
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 91
    23
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasTEX -114

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Texas Rangers, 2–0.

HOU +1.5 cashed (TEX lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 6.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TEX · top performer

TEX
Justin Foscue

Justin Foscue

2B

0.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Isaac Paredes

Isaac Paredes

3B

1.667OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Texas Rangers at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
TEX21-23
0
2
HOU18-28
TEX21-23·HOU18-28
TEX

TEX

21-23

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-22000012
SPRINT25.716
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-44000003
SPRINT28.891
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-33000010
SPRINT28.278
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
0-44000000
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
0-33000000
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
0-22000011
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
0-22000010
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
0-33000000
J. FoscueJ. Foscue★2B
1-33010000
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
0-11000000
SPRINT27.662
Team1-2727010046
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
7.0311361
C. WinnC. WinnRP
1.0211030
Team8.0522391
HOU

HOU

18-28

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT28.278
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
1-33111100
SPRINT25.18
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-33010010
SPRINT24.64
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33000012
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
1-44011000
Z. DezenzoZ. Dezenzo★LF
0-33000012
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-33000001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-33000002
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
0-33000001
Team5-2929252139
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. ArrighettiS. Arrighetti★SP
7.1100450
B. KingB. KingRP
1.2000010
Team9.0100460

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

TEX

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

HOU

  • B. King
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      58%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·79.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·89.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

5

0

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

May 16TEXTEX0@HOUHOU2today
May 16TEXTEX1@HOUHOU4
May 17TEXTEX8@HOUHOU0

Season series

HOU leads series 1-0

May 16TEXTEX0@HOUHOU2today
May 16TEXTEX1@HOUHOU4
May 17TEXTEX8@HOUHOU0
May 25HOUHOU9@TEXTEX0
May 27HOUHOU7@TEXTEX10
May 28HOUHOU4@TEXTEX3
May 29HOUHOU5@TEXTEX1
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 11HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Jul 12HOUHOU@TEXTEXupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 1TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 2TEXTEX@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TEXTEX-11453%
HOUHOU-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowTEX ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

TEXTEX
J. Foscue

J. Foscue

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.667 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

7.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

HOUHOU
I. Paredes

I. Paredes

3B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.667 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcherGem

7.1 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 4 BB

How it ended

HOU beat TEX 2-0.

Win probability

HOU vs TEX

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 68% WP

Paredes · homered to left (355 feet).

HOUBottom 6th Inning · 0-1
+11pp→ 78% WP

Alvarez · walked.

HOUTop 8th Inning · 0-1
+10pp→ 76% WP

McCutchen · flied out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
TEX0000000000
HOU00100001—2

Period scoring

TEX won 0 · HOU won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Paredes 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Shewmake 1

0

Inn 9

TEX
HOU

Play-by-play · 479 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  2. T9

    Jung grounded out to third.

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  7. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  8. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  9. T9

    Nimmo grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

    +3pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  11. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  15. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  16. T9

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  17. T9

    Duran struck out looking.

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

    +4pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  22. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Ezequiel Duran

    ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  23. T9

    Shewmake at third base.

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  24. T9

    Allen at shortstop.

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  27. B8

    · ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  28. B8

    Dezenzo struck out swinging.

    · ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

    −1pp

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    TEX 0·HOU 2

Team stats

TEX

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

0

Runs

2

1

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

1

TB

8

0

HR

1

4

BB

3

6

K

9

10

LOB

13

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 8.5·TEX -114/HOU -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-110

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

50.0%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 players in cohort
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Evan CarterTEX · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

HOU vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low

Hits

  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.2± 0.8low
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    44.5%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.6%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    45.1%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.