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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SF
LAD

LAD

16-7

1
3
SF

SF

10-13

Oracle Park · San Francisco, California
40,066 attended

Line movement

27 snapshots

SF spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

SF no-vig %

39.2%

open 39.2%

+2.0+1.0SF SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL43.2%35.2%SF NO-VIG %MODEL 38.5%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SF favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

LAD 1 · SF 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
LAD0001000001
SF300000003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, Apr 21·Final/SeriesSF wins series 2-1/VegasLAD -175

Recap · MLB

San Francisco Giants held off Los Angeles Dodgers, 3–1.

SF +1.5 cashed (LAD lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAD · top performer

LAD
Hyeseong Kim

Hyeseong Kim

SS

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

SF · top performer

SF
Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee

RF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
LAD16-7
1
3
SF10-13
LAD16-7·SF10-13
LAD

LAD

16-7

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
1-44010002
SPRINT2744
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44000003
SPRINT26.123
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
0-22000020
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
1-33110010
SPRINT28.381
M. MuncyM. Muncy★3B
0-33000012
D. RushingD. Rushing★C
0-22000010
H. KimH. Kim★SS
1-11011010
SPRINT28.381
A. CallA. Call★LF
0-44000000
A. FreelandA. Freeland★2B
0-33000013
W. SmithW. SmithC
0-11000001
M. RojasM. RojasSS
0-11000000
A. PagesA. PagesCF
0-11000001
Team3-29291310712
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Y. YamamotoY. Yamamoto★SP
7.0633270
T. ScottT. ScottRP
1.0000110
Team8.0633380
SF

SF

10-13

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-44110002
SPRINT27.457
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT26.632
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-22100021
SPRINT28.175
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-44011002
SPRINT25.716
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
0-33001000
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-33021000
SPRINT27.148
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-33010000
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
0-33000002
P. BaileyP. Bailey★C
0-22000011
Team6-2828363038
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. RouppL. Roupp★SP
5.0111570
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
1.0100010
M. GageM. GageRP
0.2000100
E. MillerE. MillerRP
1.0100110
K. WinnK. WinnRP
0.1000010
R. WalkerR. WalkerRP
1.0000020
Team9.03117120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

LAD

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

SF

  • R. Walker
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • SI
      88%·95.2 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      13%·83.2 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

6

1

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

SF wins series 2-1

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3today
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0

Season series

SF leads series 1-0

Apr 22LADLAD1@SFSF3today
Apr 23LADLAD0@SFSF3
Apr 23LADLAD3@SFSF0
May 12SFSF9@LADLAD3
May 13SFSF6@LADLAD2
May 14SFSF0@LADLAD4
May 15SFSF2@LADLAD5
Sep 19SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 20SFSF@LADLADupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 26LADLAD@SFSFupcoming
Sep 27LADLAD@SFSFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LADLAD-17564%
SFSF+14441%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAD ↔ SF

Biggest swing: 17pp · Bottom 4th Inning

LADLAD
H. Kim

H. Kim

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Y. Yamamoto

Y. Yamamoto

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 7 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

SFSF
J. Lee

J. Lee

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1.333 OPS

L. Roupp

L. Roupp

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 1 H · 5 BB

How it ended

SF beat LAD 3-1.

Win probability

SF vs LAD

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 46% WP

Adames · reached on infield single to shortstop, Adames safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Kim.

SFBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 66% WP

Devers · singled to right, Adames scored, Chapman to second, Arraez to third.

SFBottom 4th Inning · 1-3
+17pp→ 71% WP

Lee · lined out to center.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
LAD0001000001
SF30000000—3

Period scoring

LAD won 1 · SF won 1

0
3

Inn 1

Devers 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Kim 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

LAD
SF

Play-by-play · 542 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  2. T9

    Freeland struck out swinging.

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

    +0.9pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  7. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  8. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  11. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Alex Freeland

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  12. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  13. T9

    Call flied out to left.

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

    +2pp

  14. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  15. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  17. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Alex Call

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  18. T9

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  19. T9

    Pages struck out looking.

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

    +3pp

  20. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  24. T9

    Ryan Walker pitches to Andy Pages

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  25. T9

    Walker relieved Winn

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  26. T9

    Pages hit for Rojas

    ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  27. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    LAD 1·SF 3

  28. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    LAD 1·SF 3

  29. B8

    · ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

  30. B8

    Schmitt flied out to center.

    · ·

    LAD 1·SF 3

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

SF

Home

1

Runs

3

3

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

4

TB

6

0

HR

0

7

BB

3

12

K

8

12

LOB

9

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 7.5·LAD -175/SF +144

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381
  • Hyeseong KimLAD · SS
    SPRINT28.381
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 97
    83
    9(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 96
    190
    26(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 96
    82
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 93
    191
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 93
    193
    26(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 91
    159
    28(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

SF vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    38.2%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    37.9%

    P(SF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    39.2%

    P(SF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.