Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at HOU?

The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — May 5, 2026

FINAL+1HOU

LAD

22-14

HOU

15-22

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

37,008 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

32.5%

open 35.5% · -3.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.1%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
39.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
37.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
39.6%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.12 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-3.00

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+169

Close price

+194

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAD at HOU?: The model favors HOU, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

HOU vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
8.0± 1.4low
Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.4± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.7± 3.9low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Tommy EdmanLAD
1.3± 2.0low
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.3± 2.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.9high
Kyle TuckerLAD
0.7± 1.1high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.2± 2.5medium
Eric LauerLAD
3.0± 2.7low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

HOU

.778

OPS

◀

.719

.730

.343

OBP

◀

.319

.317

5.19

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.51

3.46

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.84

1.10

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

9.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

LAD 1 · HOU 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked LAD +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
HOU	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RushingC	.321	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Freeman1B	.275	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. SmithC	.269	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.244	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
T. HernándezLF	.239	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Muncy3B	.284	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. PagesCF	.326	4	0	3	0	0	0	0
A. Freeland2B	.253	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
M. RojasSS	.278	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CallLF	.344	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.192	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	1	6	1	0	4	6

Player

.321

.275

.269

.244

.239

.284

.326

.253

.278

.344

.192

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	7.0	4	2	2	0	8	89
A. VesiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
Team	8.0	4	2	2	0	9	100

Player

S. OhtaniDH

7.0

A. VesiaRP

1.0

Team

8.0

100

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
Y. AlvarezDH	.324	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.261	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Walker1B	.308	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. SmithRF	.224	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. ColeLF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. VazquezC	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.261	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. ShewmakeSS	.308	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.211	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	4	2	2	0	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. LambertSP	7.0	3	0	0	4	4	104
B. KingRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	2	37
Team	9.0	6	1	1	4	6	141

Team

LAD

HOU

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

HOU vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

HOU vs LAD.

3 sub-models, blended.