MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TUE, 8:10 PM EDTModelLAD61%

LAD

22-13

HOU

14-22

Place your bet

-227Bet LAD ML↗-227Bet LAD ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+ · we may earn a referral fee.

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.12

S. Ohtani

2-1 · 0.60 ERA

P. Lambert

1-2 · 3.52 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Shohei Ohtani

SP · #17

2-1

W-L

0.60

ERA

0.87

WHIP

30.0

Last 3 starts

vsMIAL(2-1)6.0 IP1 ER9 K

@SF-6.0 IP0 ER7 K

vsNYMW(2-0)6.0 IP1 ER10 K

Home starter

Peter Lambert

SP · #38

1-2

W-L

3.52

ERA

1.24

WHIP

15.1

Last 3 starts

@BALL(1-2)4.1 IP2 ER3 K

@CLEW(1-1)6.0 IP0 ER8 K

vsSTLL(0-1)5.0 IP4 ER8 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8.5

Money-227 / +184

Model edge

Win prob61% / 39%

LeanAway · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesLAD lead series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Take LAD on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-227Bet LAD ML↗-227Bet LAD ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8.5Bet the total↗O/U 8.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

LAD

1.D. RushingDH
2.F. Freeman1B
3.W. SmithC
4.K. TuckerRF
5.T. HernandezLF
6.M. Muncy3B
7.A. PagesCF
8.A. Freeland2B
9.M. RojasSS

HOU

1.J. Altuve2B
2.Y. AlvarezLF
3.I. Paredes1B
4.C. WalkerDH
5.C. SmithRF
6.Z. ColeCF
7.C. VazquezC
8.N. AllenSS
9.B. Shewmake3B

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

32.5%

open 35.5% · -3.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketEdge

DraftKings · snapped just now

+5.5ppon

HOU

LADWin prob axisHOU HOU

Market 34%

Model 39%

0%50%100%

ModelHOU 39%Pre-game prob

MarketHOU 34%No-vig · 4.6% hold

Edge+5.5ppModel finds value

LAD -227/

HOU +184

+184Bet HOU ML↗+184Bet HOU ML↗

Scouting report · pre-game

HOU vs LAD.

HOU is 5-5 recently; LAD is 5-5.

39.1%

model · HOU win prob

Recent form

HOU5–5-0.7
LAD5–5+1.3

Situational

HOU2d rest
LAD2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; LAD has 4.

Model angle

+5.5ppon HOU

HOU's edge is mostly travel burden plus model confidence. Line steam is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp
▼Line steam-1.2pp
▲Travel burden+1.1pp

Players to watch

Christian WalkerHOU
2.4total bases · ±2.4
Christian Walker · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 2.
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.0total bases · ±1.8
Yordan Alvarez · 2 TB · last-10 1.6 vs season 2.5.
Carlos CorreaHOU
1.8total bases · ±2.6
Carlos Correa · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

HOU is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-04LAD @ HOU8–3

Line move

open +169→+194toward LAD

The market has moved 3.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
39.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.6%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like HOU.

HOU's edge is mostly travel burden plus model confidence. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+5.5

pp edge · HOU

-3.00

CLV pp · steam

Pass

40.2%

±5.2pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

+6.5pp

+1.1pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.84

+5.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.5pp · HOU over LAD

▼
Line steam77% conf
The market moved 3pp away from HOU since open.
-1.2pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
LAD is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
HOU grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▼
Venue split70% conf
LAD's venue form trims HOU's edge by 15.5pp.
-0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
HOU has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

+169

Close price

+194

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Market faded the model hard

Player projections

HOU vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

118

projections · 48 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tyler GlasnowLAD
7.8± 1.8low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
6.8± 4.2low
Peter LambertHOU
6.3± 3.9low

Hits

Christian WalkerHOU
1.4± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 0.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Christian WalkerHOU
2.4± 2.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.0± 1.8high
Carlos CorreaHOU
1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
0.8± 1.3high
Dalton RushingLAD
0.8± 1.1medium
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Lance McCullers Jr.HOU
3.7± 2.4low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.0low
Roki SasakiLAD
3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelEdge

Tue, May 5

LAD★

Dodgers

22-13

vs61%LAD

HOU

Astros

14-22

LAD 61%win prob39% HOU

LAD 1573 · HOU 1472Box score→

The receipts

Why we like HOU.

HOU's edge is mostly travel burden plus model confidence. Line steam is the main caution flag.

+5.5

pp edge · HOU

-3.00

CLV pp · steam

Pass

40.2%

±5.2pp band

Pass — model probability is at or below the coin flip line.

Edge

+6.5pp

+1.1pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

2.84

+5.0pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 5.5pp · HOU over LAD

▼
Line steam77% conf
The market moved 3pp away from HOU since open.
-1.2pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
LAD is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.1pp
▲
Model confidence82% conf
HOU grades as a real model edge, not just noise.
+0.9pp
▼
Venue split70% conf
LAD's venue form trims HOU's edge by 15.5pp.
-0.8pp
▲
Head to head48% conf
HOU has taken 2 of the last 3 meetings.
+0.2pp

Open price

+169

Close price

+194

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Market faded the model hard

Player projections

HOU vs LAD.

118

projections · 48 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tyler GlasnowLAD
7.8± 1.8low
Shohei OhtaniLAD
6.8± 4.2low
Peter LambertHOU
6.3± 3.9low

Hits

Christian WalkerHOU
1.4± 1.1high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.2± 0.9high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Christian WalkerHOU
2.4± 2.4high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.0± 1.8high
Carlos CorreaHOU
1.8± 2.6high

RBIs

Christian WalkerHOU
0.8± 1.3high
Dalton RushingLAD
0.8± 1.1medium
Andy PagesLAD
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Lance McCullers Jr.HOU
3.7± 2.4low
Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.0low
Roki SasakiLAD
3.2± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

37.9%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
39.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
35.6%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
38.9%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

1.61 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

MLBTue, May 55/5 - 8:10 PM EDTSeriesLAD lead series 1-0VegasLAD -227

Preview · MLB

os Angeles Dodgers visit Houston Astros Tuesday at 5/5 - 8:10 PM EDT.

Vegas opened LAD as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.5. HOU's moneyline implies a 35% break-even, LAD the inverse.

For bettors: the LAD side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.5 total reads near the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

LAD · HOU

LAD

22-13

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
D. Rushing★C	17-50	17	7	1.100
F. Freeman★1B	37-134	18	3	0.619
W. Smith★C	28-100	16	3	0.650
K. Tucker★RF	32-132	18	4	0.576
T. Hernández★LF	28-113	17	4	0.602
M. Muncy★3B	33-113	13	9	0.823
A. Pages★CF	40-128	27	5	0.742
A. Freeland★2B	22-86	7	2	0.581
M. Rojas★SS	15-50	5	1	0.660
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
S. Ohtani★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

HOU

14-22

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Altuve★2B	32-129	9	3	0.566
Y. Alvarez★LF	45-135	27	12	0.933
I. Paredes★3B	30-113	15	3	0.611
C. Walker★1B	40-130	26	8	0.800
C. Smith★RF	28-122	17	4	0.557
Z. Cole★CF	1-4	1	1	1.250
C. Vazquez★C	18-57	11	2	0.737
N. Allen★SS	5-20	0	0	0.500
B. Shewmake★2B	2-10	1	1	0.700
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
P. Lambert★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Current series

LAD lead series 1-0

May 5

LAD8@

HOU3

May 6

LAD@

HOUtoday

May 6

LAD@

HOUupcoming

Season series

LAD lead series 1-0

May 5

LAD8@

HOU3

May 6

LAD@

HOUtoday

May 6

LAD@

HOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

LAD-22769%

HOU+18435%

15· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

LADSP

S. Ohtani

#17 · 2-1

ERA

0.60

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vs

MIA6.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 KL(2-1)

4/23@

SF6.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 K-

4/16vs

NYM6.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 KW(2-0)

HOUSP

P. Lambert

#38 · 1-2

ERA

3.52

—

Last 3 starts

4/30@

BAL4.1 IP · 2 ER · 3 KL(1-2)

4/22@

CLE6.0 IP · 0 ER · 8 KW(1-1)

4/18vs

STL5.0 IP · 4 ER · 8 KL(0-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

LAD4L · 4R · 1S

1
D. Rushing
DH
L
2
F. Freeman
1B
L
3
W. Smith
C
R
4
K. Tucker
RF
L
5
T. Hernandez
LF
R
6
M. Muncy
3B
L
7
A. Pages
CF
R
8
A. Freeland
2B
B
9
M. Rojas
SS
R

HOU3L · 6R

1
J. Altuve
2B
R
2
Y. Alvarez
LF
L
3
I. Paredes
1B
R
4
C. Walker
DH
R
5
C. Smith
RF
R
6
Z. Cole
CF
L
7
C. Vazquez
C
R
8
N. Allen
SS
R
9
B. Shewmake
3B
L

Scouting report

LAD @ HOU

5/5 - 8:10 PM EDT

Rest going in

LADStandard

1 day

last game May 4

HOUStandard

1 day

last game May 4

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

LAD -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

LAD -227

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

LADmetricHOU

22-13

Record

14-22

Conf rank

#14

+1.9

Pt diff

-0.8

Streak

5-5

Last 10

4-6

Bullpen used yesterday

LAD

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

K. Hurt1.0 IP17 P
B. Treinen1.0 IP17 P
J. Dreyer1.0 IP15 P

W 8-3 · May 4

HOU

8.3 bullpen IP · heavy

R. Weiss4.1 IP95 P
K. Teng2.0 IP31 P
B. Abreu1.0 IP18 P
B. Sousa1.0 IP8 P

L 8-3 · May 4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

LAD

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

324

Hits

331

Errors

183

Runs

181

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·LAD -227/HOU +184

DraftKings · via ESPN

Scouting report · pre-game

HOU vs LAD.

HOU is 5-5 recently; LAD is 5-5.

39.1%

model · HOU win prob

Recent form

HOU5–5-0.7
LAD5–5+1.3

Situational

HOU2d rest
LAD2d rest
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; LAD has 4.

Model angle

+5.5ppon HOU

HOU's edge is mostly travel burden plus model confidence. Line steam is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▼Weather + park-0.1pp
▼Line steam-1.2pp
▲Travel burden+1.1pp

Players to watch

Christian WalkerHOU
2.4total bases · ±2.4
Christian Walker · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.7 vs season 2.
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.0total bases · ±1.8
Yordan Alvarez · 2 TB · last-10 1.6 vs season 2.5.
Carlos CorreaHOU
1.8total bases · ±2.6
Carlos Correa · 1.8 TB · last-10 1.9 vs season 1.6.

Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1

HOU is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-05-04LAD @ HOU8–3

Line move

open +169→+194toward LAD

The market has moved 3.2pp toward the away side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes