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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYM
NYY

NYY

28-18

3
6
NYM

NYM

19-26

Citi Field · Queens, New York
41,067 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

NYM no-vig %

44.9%

open 45.8% · -0.9

+2.0+1.0NYM SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL49.8%40.9%NYM NO-VIG %May 16, 12 AMMay 16, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

NYY 3 · NYM 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYY +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0100101003
NYM002120106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.2pp

best edge · NYM · DraftKings

NYY

no live price

NYM

★ best
+156DraftKings

edge +2.2pp · implied 36.4%

BookNYYNYMBest edge
DraftKings-216+156★+2.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 98
    105
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 98
    303
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 96
    301
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 96
    108
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    104
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    150
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYY -126

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off New York Yankees, 6–3.

NYM +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Aaron Judge

Aaron Judge

RF

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY28-18
3
6
NYM19-26
NYY28-18·NYM19-26
NYY

NYY

28-18

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
0-44100000
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
2-44120011
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-55000002
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
2-44021001
SPRINT24.74
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
2-55120002
SPRINT28.175
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
1-44010002
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
1-44011003
SPRINT26.735
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-22000020
A. WellsA. Wells★C
1-44010003
Team9-36363920314
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. RodonC. Rodon★SP
3.2332360
J. BirdJ. BirdRP
0.2111010
B. HeadrickB. HeadrickRP
1.2111130
T. HillT. HillRP
0.1211000
C. DovalC. DovalRP
0.2000000
P. BlackburnP. BlackburnRP
1.0100110
Team8.08655110
NYM

NYM

19-26

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
3-44230000
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-33200010
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
2-22120020
SPRINT25.513
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
1-44013001
SPRINT25.513
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
0-44000002
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
1-44010001
A. SlaterA. Slater★RF
0-22100011
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-44011003
SPRINT26.735
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-44000003
Team8-31316840511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
H. BrazobanH. Brazoban★RP
1.1000020
D. PetersonD. PetersonSP
4.0622380
B. RaleyB. RaleyRP
0.2210010
L. WeaverL. WeaverRP
2.0100020
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
1.0000010
Team9.09323140

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Rodon
    88 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      43%·94.9 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      26%·87.3 mph·27% whiff
    • SI
      22%·93.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.1 mph·50% whiff
  • B. Headrick
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      42%·83.8 mph·67% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      4%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
  • P. Blackburn
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bird
    15 pitches·40% CSW
    • ST
      67%·84.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      20%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·94.1 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Hill
    12 pitches·8% CSW
    • SI
      100%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Doval
    8 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      100%·99.1 mph·33% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    82 pitches·34% CSW
    • SL
      35%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      28%·93.4 mph·11% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      12%·82.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    24 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      67%·95.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      33%·90.1 mph·60% whiff
  • L. Weaver
    19 pitches·42% CSW
    • FF
      53%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      42%·88.8 mph·38% whiff
    • FC
      5%·92.2 mph·100% whiff
  • B. Raley
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • ST
      50%·80.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      28%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      22%·90.2 mph·50% whiff
  • D. Williams
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      67%·93.5 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      33%·84.1 mph·33% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

8

3

Runs

6

1

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

May 15NYYNYY5@NYMNYM2
May 16NYYNYY3@NYMNYM6today
May 17NYYNYY6@NYMNYM7

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 15NYYNYY5@NYMNYM2
May 16NYYNYY3@NYMNYM6today
May 17NYYNYY6@NYMNYM7
Sep 11NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 12NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 13NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-12656%
NYMNYM+10549%

↗4· 1.7h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

NYYNYY
A. Judge

A. Judge

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

C. Rodon

C. Rodon

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 8 K · 2 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

How it ended

NYM beat NYY 6-3. Vientos's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Win probability

NYM vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 1-2
+22pp→ 66% WP

Vientos · grounded out to third.

NYMBottom 5th Inning · 2-5
+15pp→ 90% WP

Vientos · doubled to left, Soto scored and Benge scored.

NYMBottom 7th Inning · 3-5
+13pp→ 91% WP

Benge · reached on infield single to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0100101003
NYM00212010—6

Period scoring

NYY won 1 · NYM won 3

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

Grisham 1

0
2

Inn 3

Vientos 2

0
1

Inn 4

Baty 1

1
2

Inn 5

Goldschmidt 1

Vientos 2

0
0

Inn 6

1
1

Inn 7

Judge 1

Vientos 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

NYY
NYM

Play-by-play · 612 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  2. T9

    Chisholm Jr. grounded out to first.

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  6. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to Jazz Chisholm Jr.

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  7. T9

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  8. T9

    Goldschmidt flied out to left.

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

    +1pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  12. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to Paul Goldschmidt

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  13. T9

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  14. T9

    Bellinger struck out swinging.

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

    +2pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  16. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  21. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to Cody Bellinger

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  22. T9

    Williams relieved Weaver

    ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  23. T9

    Melendez as designated hitter.

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  24. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  25. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  26. B8

    · ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  27. B8

    Torrens flied out to center.

    · ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  29. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    NYY 3·NYM 6

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

3

Runs

6

9

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

12

TB

11

0

HR

0

3

BB

5

14

K

11

25

LOB

11

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYY -126/NYM +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.54

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-131

Close price

-123

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

52.7%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYM vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    40.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    41.7%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    37.9%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.56 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.