Matchup orbital
4
NYY
NYY
18-10
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
7
HOU
HOU
11-18
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
HOU wins
NYY 4 · HOU 7 (by 3)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked NYY +10pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| HOU | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
NYY18-10
NYY
11-18HOU
HOU
Recap · MLB
ouston Astros held off New York Yankees, 7–4.
HOU +1.5 cashed (NYY lost outright). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
NYY win series 2-1
NYY12@HOU4NYY8@HOU3NYY4@HOU7todaySeason series
NYY lead series 2-1
NYY12@HOU4NYY8@HOU3NYY4@HOU7todayHOU@NYYupcomingHOU@NYYupcomingHOU@NYYupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYY -1.5
Total
9.5
High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
NYY-13658%HOU+11347%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 3 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
9.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 18pp · Bottom 1st Inning
NYY
A. Judge
RFBatter of the game
1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS
P. Blackburn
RPTop reliever
3.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H
HOU
C. Walker
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS
S. Arrighetti
SPStarting pitcherQuality start
7.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB
How it ended
HOU beat NYY 7-4. Walker's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).
Win probability
HOU vs NYY
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactWalker · homered to center (432 feet), Paredes scored.
Paredes · homered to left (364 feet), Alvarez scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| HOU | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 7 |
Period scoring
NYY won 1 · HOU won 3
Inn 1
Walker 2
Inn 2
Inn 3
Paredes 2
Inn 4
Inn 5
Walker 2
Inn 6
Judge 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Goldschmidt 1
Game flow · key plays
- B3
Paredes homered to left (364 feet), Alvarez scored.
NYY 0·HOU 4
+13pp
- T3
Judge flied out to left.
NYY 0·HOU 2
+5pp
- B1
Walker homered to center (432 feet), Paredes scored.
NYY 0·HOU 2
+18pp
- B1
Paredes grounded into fielder's choice to third, Correa out at second.
NYY 0·HOU 0
−4pp
- B1
Alvarez flied out to left.
NYY 0·HOU 0
−4pp
- B1
Correa walked.
NYY 0·HOU 0
+4pp
Team stats
NYY
Away
Stat
HOU
Home
7
Hits
7
1
Errors
0
4
Runs
7
Player box score
NYY
18-10
T. Grisham★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Rice★
1B
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Judge★
RF
OPS
1.250
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
1
C. Bellinger★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Chisholm Jr.★
2B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
P. Goldschmidt★
1B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
J.C. Escarra★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
R. McMahon★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
J. Caballero★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
7-34
R
4
RBI
4
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T. Grisham★CF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
B. Rice★1B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
A. Judge★RF | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.250 |
C. Bellinger★LF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B | 2-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
P. Goldschmidt★1B | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
J.C. Escarra★C | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
R. McMahon★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
J. Caballero★SS | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 7-34 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — |
L. Gil★
SP
IP
4.0
H
5
ER
6
K
0
P. Blackburn
RP
IP
3.0
H
2
ER
1
K
2
R. Yarbrough
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
2
IP
8.0
H
7
ER
7
K
4
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
L. Gil★SP | 4.0 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
P. BlackburnRP | 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
R. YarbroughRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| Team | 8.0 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
HOU
11-18
C. Correa★
SS
OPS
0.500
H-AB
0-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
Y. Alvarez★
LF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0
I. Paredes★
3B
OPS
1.750
H-AB
2-4
R
3
RBI
3
HR
1
C. Walker★
1B
OPS
2.250
H-AB
3-4
R
1
RBI
4
HR
1
C. Smith★
RF
OPS
0.333
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Harris★
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
C. Vazquez★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Johnson★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Shewmake★
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
B. Matthews
LF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
7-30
R
7
RBI
7
HR
2
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C. Correa★SS | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
Y. Alvarez★LF | 2-4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
I. Paredes★3B | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1.750 |
C. Walker★1B | 3-4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2.250 |
C. Smith★RF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 |
D. Harris★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
C. Vazquez★C | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
D. Johnson★CF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
B. Shewmake★2B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
B. MatthewsLF | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 7-30 | 7 | 7 | 2 | — |
S. Arrighetti★
SP
IP
7.0
H
3
ER
1
K
8
B. King
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
1
E. De Los Santos
RP
IP
1.0
H
4
ER
3
K
0
IP
9.0
H
7
ER
4
K
9
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S. Arrighetti★SP | 7.0 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
B. KingRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
E. De Los SantosRP | 1.0 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Team | 9.0 | 7 | 4 | 9 |
Betting line
NYY -1.5·O/U 9.5·NYY -136/HOU +113