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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+3NYY
NYY

NYY

28-17

5
2
NYM

NYM

18-26

Citi Field · Queens, New York
40,004 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

NYM no-vig %

41.7%

open 42.8% · -1.1

+2.0-0.5NYM SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL46.8%37.7%NYM NO-VIG %MODEL 38.6%May 14, 4 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 5 · NYM 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0030100015
NYM0000001012

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Player projections

NYM vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    2.2± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.6%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    40.1%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    39.0%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    37.9%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.90 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.9pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best
-132DraftKings

edge +7.9pp · implied 53.5%

NYM

no live price

BookNYYNYMBest edge
DraftKings-132★+102+7.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 26, 26sim 98
    301
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 98
    103
    21(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 98
    303
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 97
    100
    1(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 95
    150
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 94
    104
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.26

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYY -149

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into New York Mets and beat them, 5–2.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total pushed exactly on 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Ben Rice

Ben Rice

1B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY28-17
5
2
NYM18-26
NYY28-17·NYM18-26
NYY

NYY

28-17

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. GrishamT. Grisham★CF
0-55000002
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
3-55231101
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
1-55111001
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.J. Chisholm Jr.★2B
3-44132010
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
0-44000002
S. JonesS. Jones★RF
2-44021001
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-11000031
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-44000002
Team10-363651051411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SchlittlerC. Schlittler★SP
6.2211291
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.1100010
D. BednarD. BednarRP
1.0211100
Team9.05223101
NYM

NYM

18-26

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.586
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
0-44000001
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
1-33111112
SPRINT25.513
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-44000000
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
1-44110003
SPRINT26.941
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-33021011
SPRINT26.735
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
1-33010011
SPRINT28.175
A.J. EwingA.J. Ewing★CF
0-33000001
L. TorrensL. Torrens★C
0-33000000
Team5-31312521310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. HolmesC. Holmes★SP
4.1744280
A. WarrenA. WarrenRP
1.2100120
T. MyersT. MyersRP
2.0000110
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
1.0211001
Team9.010554111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • C. Schlittler
    106 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      51%·97.1 mph·48% whiff
    • FC
      26%·93.8 mph·21% whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·85.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      2%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Bednar
    21 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      52%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      29%·91.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      19%·77.5 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      47%·92.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FS
      33%·79.5 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      13%·82.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·91.9 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • C. Holmes
    95 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      49%·93.9 mph·15% whiff
    • ST
      28%·81.6 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.3 mph·40% whiff
    • CU
      5%·81.6 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      3%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Warren
    33 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      36%·92.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      33%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      15%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      9%·84.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • T. Myers
    25 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      60%·93.6 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      24%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.1 mph·— whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      65%·94.0 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      24%·86.3 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      12%·85.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

5

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

May 15NYYNYY5@NYMNYM2today
May 16NYYNYY3@NYMNYM6
May 17NYYNYY6@NYMNYM7

Season series

NYY lead series 1-0

May 15NYYNYY5@NYMNYM2today
May 16NYYNYY3@NYMNYM6
May 17NYYNYY6@NYMNYM7
Sep 11NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 12NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming
Sep 13NYMNYM@NYYNYYupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-14960%
NYMNYM+12345%

↗6· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 14pp · Top 3rd Inning

NYYNYY
B. Rice

B. Rice

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

C. Schlittler

C. Schlittler

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Holmes

C. Holmes

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 8 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

NYY beat NYM 5-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 3rd Inning · 3-0
+14pp→ 85% WP

Chisholm Jr. · doubled to right, Bellinger scored and Judge scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0030100015
NYM0000001012

Period scoring

NYY won 2 · NYM won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Jr. 2

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Jones 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Soto 1

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Rice 1

Baty 1

NYY
NYM

Play-by-play · 588 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 5·NYM 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

  3. B9

    Semien lined out to third.

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

  5. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Marcus Semien

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

  6. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

  7. B9

    Baty singled to right, Melendez scored.

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

    +0.8pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

  9. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  12. B9

    Brett Baty challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: MJ Melendez advances to 2nd on defensive indifference.

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  13. B9

    Melendez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  16. B9

    David Bednar pitches to Brett Baty

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 2

  17. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  18. B9

    Melendez singled to right.

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  25. B9

    David Bednar pitches to MJ Melendez

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  26. B9

    ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  27. B9

    Vientos grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Soto out at second.

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

    −4pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    NYY 5·NYM 1

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

5

Runs

2

10

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

15

TB

8

1

HR

1

4

BB

3

11

K

10

17

LOB

6

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 7·NYY -149/NYM +123

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 13 players in cohort
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY · 2B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175