Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at HOU?

The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

New York Yankees vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 25, 2026

FINAL+5NYY

NYY

18-9

HOU

10-18

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas

38,399 attended

Line movement

56 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

HOU no-vig %

41.7%

open 41.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.7%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
40.2%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
38.2%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.2%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.93 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-156

Close price

-156

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYY at HOU?: The model favors NYY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

HOU vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
7.0± 2.9low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.8± 3.2medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.2± 3.6low

Hits

Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 0.9high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.3± 2.0high
Ben RiceNYY
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.9high
Ben RiceNYY
0.8± 1.1high
Jose CaballeroNYY
0.8± 1.1high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.2± 2.5medium
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.6low
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

HOU

.768

OPS

◀

.718

.727

.331

OBP

◀

.319

.317

5.09

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.47

3.37

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.84

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.41

8.8

K / 9

8.5

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 8 · HOU 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	1	0	1	0	3	1	2	8
HOU	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.169	3	2	1	1	1	2	1
B. Rice1B	.337	4	1	3	1	0	0	1
A. JudgeRF	.229	3	0	0	0	0	2	2
C. BellingerLF	.261	2	1	0	1	0	3	0
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.204	4	0	0	1	0	1	1
A. Rosario3B	.263	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
A. WellsC	.188	3	1	2	2	1	2	0
R. McMahon3B	.172	5	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. CaballeroSS	.280	5	1	3	1	1	0	0
Team		34	8	12	8	3	10	8

Player

.169

.337

.229

.261

.204

.263

.188

.172

.280

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. WeathersSP	5.1	6	2	2	0	4	86
F. CruzRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	12
J. BirdRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
C. DovalRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	13
T. HillRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	11
Team	9.0	7	3	3	2	9	131

Player

5.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

131

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CorreaSS	.287	3	2	2	1	1	1	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.353	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Paredes3B	.220	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. Altuve2B	.260	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
C. Walker1B	.273	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
Y. DiazC	.215	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.221	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
C. VazquezC	.341	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.140	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	7	3	2	2	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BurrowsSP	5.0	5	2	2	3	8	92
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
K. TengRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	9
B. SousaRP	0.1	1	2	2	4	0	27
A. BlubaughRP	1.1	1	1	1	2	0	29
J. MurrayRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	19
Team	9.0	12	8	8	10	8	189

Team

NYY

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

HOU vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

HOU vs NYY.

3 sub-models, blended.