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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+12ATL
CLE

CLE

9-7

1
13
ATL

ATL

10-6

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia
29,084 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

ATL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.0

open O/U 7.0

ATL no-vig %

62.5%

open 62.5%

-1.0-2.0ATL SPREADO/U 7.5O/U 6.5TOTAL66.5%58.5%ATL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

CLE 1 · ATL 13 (by 12)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked ATL +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0000010001
ATL0302400413

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 10, 26sim 98
    55
    15(H)11
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 94
    58
    14(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 94
    88
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 94
    812
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 94
    1610
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 5, 26sim 93
    88
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+155

Close price

+155

Open no-vig

37.5%

Close no-vig

37.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesATL wins series 2-1/VegasATL -188

Recap · MLB

Atlanta Braves held off Cleveland Guardians, 13–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATL -1.5 cashed (won by 12). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
Chase DeLauter

Chase DeLauter

RF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

ATL · top performer

ATL
Dominic Smith

Dominic Smith

DH

2.500OPS

2-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Atlanta Braves · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE9-7
1
13
ATL10-6
CLE9-7·ATL10-6
CLE

CLE

9-7

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
0-44000000
C. DeLauterC. DeLauter★RF
2-22020010
SPRINT26.941
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.251
D. FryD. Fry★RF
1-44010003
SPRINT25.716
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
1-44111101
SPRINT24.96
K. ManzardoK. Manzardo★1B
1-44010000
J. BritoJ. Brito★2B
0-44000003
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
3-44030000
SPRINT27.457
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-44000001
B. NaylorB. NaylorC
0-11000000
Team9-3535191118
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
4.21188141
K. AllardK. AllardRP
3.0855110
A. HedgesA. HedgesC
0.1000000
SPRINT24.43
Team8.0191313251
ATL

ATL

10-6

13
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. Acuna Jr.R. Acuna Jr.★RF
2-44021000
D. BaldwinD. Baldwin★C
0-55101000
M. OlsonM. Olson★1B
2-55221000
SPRINT25.513
A. RileyA. Riley★3B
2-55122002
M. YastrzemskiM. Yastrzemski★LF
1-44110013
O. AlbiesO. Albies★2B
3-44231000
SPRINT27.354
D. SmithD. Smith★DH
1-22112100
SPRINT25.716
M. DubonM. Dubon★SS
3-44232000
SPRINT26.428
J. MateoJ. Mateo★SS
4-44241000
SPRINT3099
K. FarmerK. FarmerDH
1-33112000
Team19-4040131913125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. SaleC. Sale★SP
6.0811161
D. DoddD. DoddRP
3.0100020
Team9.0911181

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    93 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      32%·94.1 mph·15% whiff
    • FC
      23%·85.9 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      18%·80.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.0 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      10%·78.3 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Allard
    69 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      32%·89.2 mph·7% whiff
    • FC
      28%·82.7 mph·38% whiff
    • CH
      20%·82.1 mph·10% whiff
    • CU
      14%·71.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Hedges
    4 pitches·25% CSW
    • FA
      75%·70.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·70.2 mph·— whiff

ATL

  • C. Sale
    97 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.7 mph·22% whiff
    • SL
      37%·78.3 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.6 mph·20% whiff
  • D. Dodd
    33 pitches·21% CSW
    • SI
      58%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      39%·87.4 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      3%·82.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

19

1

Runs

13

1

Errors

0

Current series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 10CLECLE5@ATLATL11
Apr 11CLECLE6@ATLATL0
Apr 12CLECLE1@ATLATL13today

Season series

ATL wins series 2-1

Apr 10CLECLE5@ATLATL11
Apr 11CLECLE6@ATLATL0
Apr 12CLECLE1@ATLATL13today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

7.0

Defensive · -1.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE+15539%
ATLATL-18865%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗SpreadBet ATL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ ATL

Biggest swing: 9pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

CLECLE
C. DeLauter

C. DeLauter

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 11 H · 1 BB

ATLATL
D. Smith

D. Smith

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS

C. Sale

C. Sale

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ATL beat CLE 13-1.

Win probability

ATL vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATLTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 70% WP

Brito · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Manzardo out at second.

ATLBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 78% WP

Dub · ón doubled to center, Yastrzemski scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0000010001
ATL03024004—13

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · ATL won 4

0
0

Inn 1

0
3

Inn 2

Dub 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Smith 2

0
4

Inn 5

Farmer 2

1
0

Inn 6

Hoskins 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
4

Inn 8

Riley 2

0

Inn 9

CLE
ATL

Play-by-play · 583 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  2. T9

    Rocchio flied out to center.

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  6. T9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Brayan Rocchio

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  7. T9

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  8. T9

    Schneemann doubled to center.

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  9. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  10. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  11. T9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Daniel Schneemann

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  12. T9

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  13. T9

    Brito struck out swinging.

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  14. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  15. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  18. T9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Juan Brito

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  19. T9

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  20. T9

    Manzardo grounded out to first.

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  23. T9

    Dylan Dodd pitches to Kyle Manzardo

    ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  24. T9

    Williams at second base.

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  25. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  26. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  27. B8

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  28. B8

    Farmer lined out to left.

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  29. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

  30. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 1·ATL 13

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

ATL

Home

1

Runs

13

9

Hits

19

1

Errors

0

15

TB

27

1

HR

1

1

BB

2

8

K

5

13

LOB

18

Betting line

ATL -1.5·O/U 7·CLE +155/ATL -188

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

ATL vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 75 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Chris SaleATL
    7.3± 2.8low
  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Spencer StriderATL
    6.4± 2.8low

Hits

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.5± 1.3high
  • Ozzie AlbiesATL
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    2.8± 3.1high
  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Michael Harris IIATL
    1.0± 1.4high
  • Matt OlsonATL
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Dominic SmithATL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Grant HolmesATL
    2.2± 2.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.6%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    50.2%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.3%

    P(ATL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.5%

    P(ATL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.26 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.