MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

BOT 8TH+7BAL

NYY

27-16

BAL

19-24

Live · model leanBot 8thPolls every 30s

73.4%

BAL wins · current

Pre-game: 57.9% NYY

NYY 0 · 7 BAL

BAL +7

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsBAL leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingBALBottom 5th Inning · 0-5
+8pp→ 96% WP
Rutschman · homered to right center (393 feet), Alexander scored.
SwingBALTop 4th Inning · 0-3
+9pp→ 82% WP
Grisham · fouled out to left.
SwingBALBottom 3rd Inning · 0-1
+7pp→ 69% WP
Alexander · reached on bunt single to pitcher, Alexander safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Fried.
Lead flipBALBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 62% WP
Mayo · doubled to left, Taveras scored.
Lead flipBALBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 55% WP
Ward · singled to right.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.74

M. Fried

4-2 · 2.91 ERA

K. Bradish

1-5 · 4.83 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

BAL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

39.5%

open 39.5%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

40.9%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
42.1%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
39.8%
P(BAL win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
40.7%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

85% confidence

Win prob · home

99.0%

+56.9ppvs pre-game · BAL favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+142

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

39.5%

Close no-vig

39.5%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+23.3pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best

+172DraftKings

edge +23.3pp · implied 34.6%

BAL

no live price

Book	NYY	BAL	Best edge
DraftKings	+172★	-229	+23.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

BAL vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

Ryan WeathersNYY
6.7± 3.0low
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.6± 1.9low
Will WarrenNYY
6.6± 3.1low

Hits

Samuel BasalloBAL
1.2± 0.8high
Aaron JudgeNYY
1.1± 0.6high
Ben RiceNYY
1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

Aaron JudgeNYY
2.5± 1.8high
Ben RiceNYY
2.2± 2.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
2.0± 2.4high

RBIs

Aaron JudgeNYY
0.8± 1.3high
Cody BellingerNYY
0.8± 1.3high
Ben RiceNYY
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Shane BazBAL
3.4± 2.2low
Trevor RogersBAL
3.1± 2.8low
Chris BassittBAL
2.7± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

Wed, May 13

NYY★

Yankees

29-19

vs57.9%NYY

BAL

Orioles

23-25

NYY 57.9%win prob42.1% BAL

NYY 1564 · BAL 1485Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

	Batting
T. Grisham★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
SPRINT26.735
B. Rice★1B	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
SPRINT26.941
A. Judge★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
SPRINT26.838
C. Bellinger★LF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
SPRINT27.560
J. Chisholm Jr.★2B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
SPRINT28.175
R. McMahon★3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Jones★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
A. Volpe★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.C. Escarra★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team	1-23	23	0	1	0	0	4	7

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI

0-2

0-2

0-3

0-3

1-3

0-3

0-1

0-3

0-3

Team

1-23

	Pitching
M. Fried★SP	3.0	5	3	3	1	2	0
P. BlackburnRP	2.0	2	3	3	2	1	1
R. YarbroughRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	3	0
Team	7.0	10	7	7	3	6	1

Pitching

Player

M. Fried★SP

3.0

P. BlackburnRP

2.0

R. YarbroughRP

2.0

Team

7.0

	Batting
T. Ward★LF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
SPRINT27.457
G. Henderson★SS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Rutschman★C	1-3	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
SPRINT26.632
P. Alonso★1B	2-4	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
SPRINT25.29
T. O'Neill★RF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
L. Taveras★CF	0-3	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo★3B	2-3	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
SPRINT2872
W. Wilson★3B	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Alexander★3B	3-3	3	2	3	2	0	0	0
SPRINT28.175
Team	10-28	28	7	10	7	1	3	6

Batting

Player

H-AB

RBI