MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MON, 7:10 PM EDTModelCHC61%

CIN

20-14

CHC

22-12

Place your bet

-209Bet CHC ML↗-209Bet CHC ML↗

Direct to DraftKings or FanDuel · 21+ · we may earn a referral fee.

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

Probable starters

The mound matchup

C. Petty

E. Cabrera

3-0 · 3.06 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Chase Petty

SP · #61

—

W-L

—

ERA

—

WHIP

—

Home starter

Edward Cabrera

SP · #30

3-0

W-L

3.06

ERA

1.19

WHIP

35.1

Last 3 starts

@SDW(3-0)5.2 IP3 ER7 K

vsPHI-7.0 IP3 ER5 K

vsNYMW(2-0)6.0 IP3 ER4 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 11.5

Money+171 / -209

Model edge

Win prob39% / 61%

LeanHome · 11pp

ConfidenceEdge

Head to head

SeriesCIN wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Place a bet

Take CHC on the model side.

Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.

Model side · moneyline

-209Bet CHC ML↗-209Bet CHC ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 11.5Bet the total↗O/U 11.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

CIN

1.T. FriedlCF
2.J. BledayLF
3.E. De La CruzSS
4.S. Stewart2B
5.N. LoweDH
6.S. Steer1B
7.T. StephensonC
8.W. BensonRF
9.K. Hayes3B

CHC

1.N. Hoerner2B
2.M. BallesterosDH
3.A. Bregman3B
4.I. HappLF
5.S. SuzukiRF
6.M. Busch1B
7.C. KellyC
8.P. Crow-ArmstrongCF
9.D. SwansonSS

Line movement

61 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 11.5

open O/U 0.0 · +11.5

CHC implied %

67.6%

open 66.6% · +1.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketLean

DraftKings · snapped 11m ago

+3.8ppon

CIN

CINWin prob axisCHC CHC

Market 65%

Model 61%

0%50%100%

ModelCIN 39%Pre-game prob

MarketCIN 35%No-vig · 4.5% hold

Edge+3.8ppModel finds value

CIN +171/

CHC -209

+171Bet CIN ML↗+171Bet CIN ML↗

The One modelEdge

Mon, May 4

CIN

Reds

20-14

vs61%CHC

CHC★

Cubs

22-12

CIN 39%win prob61% CHC

CHC 1561 · CIN 1508Box score→

MLBMon, May 45/4 - 7:10 PM EDTSeriesCIN wins series 2-0VegasCHC -209

Preview · MLB

incinnati Reds visit Chicago Cubs Monday at 5/4 - 7:10 PM EDT. CHC arrives on a 5-game win streak (9-3 in their last 12).

Vegas opened CHC as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 11.5. CHC's moneyline implies a 68% break-even, CIN the inverse. CHC is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the CHC side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 11.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 10 over 6.5h12m ago

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CIN · CHC

CIN

20-14

T. Friedl★

OPS

0.458

H-AB

24-118

RBI

J. Bleday★

OPS

1.067

H-AB

5-15

RBI

E. De La Cruz★

OPS

0.767

H-AB

36-133

RBI

S. Stewart★

OPS

0.717

H-AB

32-127

RBI

N. Lowe★

OPS

0.790

H-AB

17-62

RBI

S. Steer★

OPS

0.632

H-AB

26-106

RBI

T. Stephenson★

OPS

0.450

H-AB

15-80

RBI

W. Benson★

OPS

0.490

H-AB

9-49

RBI

K. Hayes★

OPS

0.274

H-AB

10-84

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
T. Friedl★CF	24-118	7	2	0.458
J. Bleday★LF	5-15	3	2	1.067
E. De La Cruz★SS	36-133	25	10	0.767
S. Stewart★1B	32-127	29	9	0.717
N. Lowe★1B	17-62	15	5	0.790
S. Steer★LF	26-106	10	5	0.632
T. Stephenson★C	15-80	6	2	0.450
W. Benson★RF	9-49	4	2	0.490
K. Hayes★3B	10-84	1	1	0.274
Team	-----	--	--	—

C. Petty★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
C. Petty★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

CHC

22-12

N. Hoerner★

OPS

0.692

H-AB

40-133

RBI

M. Ballesteros★

OPS

0.854

H-AB

26-82

RBI

A. Bregman★

OPS

0.551

H-AB

33-136

RBI

I. Happ★

OPS

0.694

H-AB

30-121

RBI

S. Suzuki★

OPS

0.808

H-AB

24-78

RBI

M. Busch★

OPS

0.484

H-AB

27-124

RBI

C. Kelly★

OPS

0.723

H-AB

27-83

RBI

P. Crow-Armstrong★

OPS

0.543

H-AB

30-127

RBI

D. Swanson★

OPS

0.593

H-AB

23-108

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
N. Hoerner★2B	40-133	26	4	0.692
M. Ballesteros★C	26-82	18	6	0.854
A. Bregman★3B	33-136	12	3	0.551
I. Happ★LF	30-121	15	8	0.694
S. Suzuki★RF	24-78	10	5	0.808
M. Busch★1B	27-124	17	2	0.484
C. Kelly★C	27-83	13	2	0.723
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF	30-127	13	3	0.543
D. Swanson★SS	23-108	24	6	0.593
Team	-----	--	--	—

E. Cabrera★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
E. Cabrera★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Season series

May 4

CIN@

CHCtoday

May 5

CIN@

CHCupcoming

May 6

CIN@

CHCupcoming

May 7

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Jul 10

CHC@

CINupcoming

Jul 11

CHC@

CINupcoming

Jul 12

CHC@

CINupcoming

Aug 28

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Aug 29

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Aug 30

CIN@

CHCupcoming

Sep 18

CHC@

CINupcoming

Sep 19

CHC@

CINupcoming

Sep 20

CHC@

CINupcoming

Season series

CIN wins series 2-0

Mar 2

CHC9@

CIN17

Mar 21

CIN8@

CHC6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

11.5

High-scoring · +3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CIN+17137%

CHC-20968%

10· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

11.5

+11.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

CINSP

C. Petty

#61 · —

ERA

—

CHCSP

E. Cabrera

#30 · 3-0

ERA

3.06

—

Last 3 starts

4/29@

SD5.2 IP · 3 ER · 7 KW(3-0)

4/23vs

PHI7.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-

4/17vs

NYM6.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 KW(2-0)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

CIN4L · 4R · 1S

1
T. Friedl
CF
L
2
J. Bleday
LF
L
3
E. De La Cruz
SS
B
4
S. Stewart
2B
R
5
N. Lowe
DH
L
6
S. Steer
1B
R
7
T. Stephenson
C
R
8
W. Benson
RF
L
9
K. Hayes
3B
R

CHC3L · 5R · 1S

1
N. Hoerner
2B
R
2
M. Ballesteros
DH
L
3
A. Bregman
3B
R
4
I. Happ
LF
B
5
S. Suzuki
RF
R
6
M. Busch
1B
L
7
C. Kelly
C
R
8
P. Crow-Armstrong
CF
L
9
D. Swanson
SS
R

Scouting report

CIN @ CHC

5/4 - 7:10 PM EDT

StorylineCIN dropped 3 straight · CHC on a 5-game roll.

Rest going in

CINB2B

0 days

last game May 3

CHCB2B

0 days

last game May 3

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

CHC -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

11.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

CHC -209

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CINmetricCHC

20-14

Record

22-12

Conf rank

-0.7

Pt diff

+1.2

Streak

4-6

Last 10

7-3

Bullpen used yesterday

CIN

1.0 bullpen IP

T. Santillan1.0 IP21 P

L 1-0 · May 3

CHC

3.0 bullpen IP · heavy

P. Maton1.0 IP25 P
H. Milner1.0 IP15 P
C. Martin1.0 IP26 P

W 8-4 · May 3

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

CIN

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

244

Hits

304

Errors

141

Runs

185

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 11.5·CIN +171/CHC -209

DraftKings · via ESPN