Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — May 4, 2026

FINAL+1CHC

CIN

20-15

CHC

23-12

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois

32,997 attended

Line movement

125 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 11.5

open O/U 0.0 · +11.5

CHC no-vig %

66.2%

open 63.6% · +2.6

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.0%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
63.4%
P(CHC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.4%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
63.6%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.0± 2.4medium
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.4± 2.8medium
Edward CabreraCHC
4.8± 2.8low

Hits

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.6± 1.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.8high
Blake DunnCIN
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
3.4± 2.5high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.6high
Noelvi MarteCIN
1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 2.1high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
0.8± 1.3high
Carson KellyCHC
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.6± 2.5low
Edward CabreraCHC
3.4± 2.6low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.1± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

CHC

.706

OPS

.719

▶

.738

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.337

4.28

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.75

4.58

Team ERA

4.19

▶

4.28

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CIN 4 · CHC 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	0	4
CHC	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.198	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.300	5	1	1	1	1	0	2
E. De La CruzSS	.285	4	0	3	0	0	1	1
S. Stewart1B	.252	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.262	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. SteerLF	.255	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
T. StephensonC	.190	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
W. BensonRF	.192	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
K. Hayes3B	.126	3	1	1	2	1	1	1
D. MyersCF	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. DunnRF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.195	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	10	4	2	4	12

Player

.198

.300

.285

.252

.262

.255

.190

.192

.126

.267

.000

.195

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PettySP	5.2	4	3	3	2	1	75
B. BurkeRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	9
G. AshcraftRP	1.2	0	0	0	3	2	28
E. PaganRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	1	16
Team	8.2	6	5	5	6	5	128

Player

5.2

0.2

1.2

0.2

Team

8.2

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Hoerner2B	.299	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. BallesterosDH	.306	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Bregman3B	.245	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
I. HappLF	.242	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
S. SuzukiRF	.321	3	1	2	3	1	1	0
M. Busch1B	.213	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. KellyC	.314	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.237	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
D. SwansonSS	.205	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. ShawRF	.278	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.323	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
Team		31	5	6	5	2	6	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	6.0	9	3	3	2	8	89
H. MilnerRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	12
P. MatonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
B. BrownRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	25
R. RolisonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
Team	9.0	10	4	4	4	12	144

Team

CIN

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs CIN.

3 sub-models, blended.