Matchup orbital
5
ARI
ARI
16-15
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
6
CHC
CHC
20-12
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
CHC wins
ARI 5 · CHC 6 (by 1)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked CHC +11pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| CHC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
ARI16-15
ARI
20-12CHC
CHC
Recap · MLB
hicago Cubs held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.
ARI +1.5 cashed (CHC won by 1). Total cleared the 7.0 OVER by 4.0.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
CHC lead series 1-0
ARI5@CHC6todayARI@CHCARI@CHCupcomingSeason series
CHC lead series 1-0
ARI5@CHC6todayARI@CHCARI@CHCupcomingCHC@ARIupcomingCHC@ARIupcomingCHC@ARIupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CHC -1.5
Total
7.0
Defensive · -1.5 vs avg
Moneyline
ARI+12345%CHC-14960%7· 16h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 4 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.0
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 1st Inning
ARI
I. Vargas
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
4-for-4 · 2.000 OPS
Z. Gallen
SPStarting pitcher
3.2 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 3 BB
CHC
N. Hoerner
2BBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS
C. Rea
SPStarting pitcher
5.1 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 8 H
How it ended
CHC beat ARI 6-5.
Win probability
CHC vs ARI
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBusch · singled to left, Bregman scored and Hoerner scored, Happ to third.
Perdomo · homered to left (366 feet), Tawa scored and Barrosa scored.
Vargas · walked.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| CHC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — | 6 |
Period scoring
ARI won 2 · CHC won 2
Inn 1
Busch 2
Inn 2
Inn 3
Vargas 1
Inn 4
Swanson 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Perdomo 3
Inn 7
Inn 8
Inn 9
Game flow · key plays
- T9
Moreno struck out swinging.
ARI 5·CHC 6
+7pp
- T9
Marte grounded into fielder's choice to second, Vargas out at second.
ARI 5·CHC 6
+10pp
- T9
Carroll struck out swinging.
ARI 5·CHC 6
+11pp
- T9
Vargas walked.
ARI 5·CHC 6
−13pp
- T6
Perdomo homered to left (366 feet), Tawa scored and Barrosa scored.
ARI 5·CHC 6
−13pp
- B1
Busch singled to left, Bregman scored and Hoerner scored, Happ to third.
ARI 0·CHC 2
+15pp
Team stats
ARI
Away
Stat
CHC
Home
11
Hits
8
0
Errors
1
5
Runs
6
Player box score
ARI
16-15
G. Perdomo★
SS
OPS
1.400
H-AB
2-5
R
1
RBI
3
HR
1
I. Vargas★
1B
OPS
2.000
H-AB
4-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
C. Carroll★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Del Castillo★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
G. Moreno★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-5
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Fernandez★
1B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Arenado★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Thomas★
CF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-2
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Barrosa★
LF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
2
RBI
1
HR
0
K. Marte
2B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
T. Tawa
LF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
0-1
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
11-39
R
5
RBI
5
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
G. Perdomo★SS | 2-5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.400 |
I. Vargas★1B | 4-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2.000 |
C. Carroll★RF | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
A. Del Castillo★C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
G. Moreno★C | 0-5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Fernandez★1B | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
N. Arenado★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
A. Thomas★CF | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
J. Barrosa★LF | 2-4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
K. Marte2B | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
T. TawaLF | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
| Team | 11-39 | 5 | 5 | 1 | — |
Z. Gallen★
SP
IP
3.2
H
7
ER
6
K
3
R. Thompson
RP
IP
1.1
H
1
ER
0
K
0
B. Garcia
RP
IP
2.0
H
0
ER
0
K
2
K. Ginkel
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
0
IP
8.0
H
8
ER
6
K
5
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Z. Gallen★SP | 3.2 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
R. ThompsonRP | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
B. GarciaRP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
K. GinkelRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Team | 8.0 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
CHC
20-12
N. Hoerner★
2B
OPS
2.000
H-AB
1-1
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Ballesteros★
C
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Bregman★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
I. Happ★
LF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
0-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
S. Suzuki★
RF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Busch★
1B
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
2
HR
0
C. Kelly★
C
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
P. Crow-Armstrong★
CF
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
D. Swanson★
SS
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
M. Shaw
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
8-32
R
6
RBI
5
HR
0
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N. Hoerner★2B | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2.000 |
M. Ballesteros★C | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
A. Bregman★3B | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
I. Happ★LF | 0-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
S. Suzuki★RF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
M. Busch★1B | 2-4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 |
C. Kelly★C | 2-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 |
P. Crow-Armstrong★CF | 1-4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
D. Swanson★SS | 1-4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
M. ShawRF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 8-32 | 6 | 5 | 0 | — |
C. Rea★
SP
IP
5.1
H
8
ER
2
K
6
R. Rolison
RP
IP
0.2
H
3
ER
3
K
2
P. Maton
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
2
J. Webb
RP
IP
2.0
H
0
ER
0
K
3
IP
9.0
H
11
ER
5
K
13
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
C. Rea★SP | 5.1 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
R. RolisonRP | 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
P. MatonRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
J. WebbRP | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Team | 9.0 | 11 | 5 | 13 |
Betting line
CHC -1.5·O/U 7·ARI +123/CHC -149