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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1LAD
ARI

ARI

0-3

2
3
LAD

LAD

3-0

Dodger Stadium · Los Angeles, California
53,340 attended

Line movement

7 snapshots

LAD spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

LAD no-vig %

68.4%

open 68.4%

-1.0-2.0LAD SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL72.4%64.4%LAD NO-VIG %MODEL 67.2%May 4, 11 AMMay 27, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = LAD favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

ARI 2 · LAD 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked LAD +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI1010000002
LAD000001023

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 8, 26sim 99
    113
    10(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 95
    22
    15(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    113
    10(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 94
    294
    19(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 94
    283
    19(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 94
    172
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+203

Close price

+203

Open no-vig

31.6%

Close no-vig

31.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Mar 28·Final/SeriesLAD win series 3-0/VegasLAD -252

Recap · MLB

Los Angeles Dodgers held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (LAD won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
Ketel Marte

Ketel Marte

2B

0.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

LAD · top performer

LAD
Miguel Rojas

Miguel Rojas

SS

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
ARI0-3
2
3
LAD3-0
ARI0-3·LAD3-0
ARI

ARI

0-3

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
1-33111000
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-44010000
SPRINT26.838
P. SmithP. Smith★1B
1-44011002
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-44000000
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-44000000
C. SantanaC. Santana★1B
0-33000001
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
0-33000002
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-33110002
SPRINT28.688
Team5-3131252017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
E. RodriguezE. Rodriguez★SP
5.0410250
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0100010
J. RossJ. RossRP
1.0000000
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
0.2122101
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
0.1000000
Team8.0632361
LAD

LAD

3-0

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. OhtaniS. Ohtani★SP
0-22000020
K. TuckerK. Tucker★RF
0-44100002
SPRINT26.123
M. BettsM. Betts★SS
0-33100010
W. SmithW. Smith★C
1-44112101
SPRINT2744
F. FreemanF. Freeman★1B
3-44031000
SPRINT24.74
T. HernándezT. Hernández★LF
0-33000002
S. EspinalS. Espinal★3B
0-22000001
A. PagesA. Pages★CF
0-33000000
M. RojasM. Rojas★SS
2-22020000
SPRINT26.123
M. MuncyM. Muncy3B
0-11000000
A. FreelandA. Freeland2B
0-11000000
Team6-2929363136
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. GlasnowT. Glasnow★SP
6.0422160
A. VesiaA. VesiaRP
1.0000000
W. KleinW. KleinRP
1.0100010
E. DiazE. DiazRP
1.0000000
Team9.0522170

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

6

2

Runs

3

1

Errors

0

Current series

LAD win series 3-0

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3today

Season series

LAD lead series 3-0

Mar 27ARIARI2@LADLAD8
Mar 28ARIARI4@LADLAD5
Mar 29ARIARI2@LADLAD3today
Jun 2LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 3LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 4LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jun 5LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Jul 11ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Jul 12ARIARI@LADLADupcoming
Aug 8LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming
Aug 9LADLAD@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAD -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+20333%
LADLAD-25272%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗SpreadBet LAD -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ LAD

Biggest swing: 57pp · Bottom 8th Inning

ARIARI
K. Marte

K. Marte

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 0.833 OPS

E. Rodriguez

E. Rodriguez

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

LADLAD
M. Rojas

M. Rojas

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

T. Glasnow

T. Glasnow

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

LAD beat ARI 3-2. Smith's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (57pp).

Win probability

LAD vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 53% WP

Barrosa · doubled to left.

LADBottom 6th Inning · 2-1
+16pp→ 46% WP

Freeman · doubled to left, Tucker scored.

LADBottom 8th Inning · 2-3
+57pp→ 86% WP

Smith · homered to center (414 feet), Betts scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI1010000002
LAD00000102—3

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · LAD won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Smith 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Carroll 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Smith 2

0

Inn 9

ARI
LAD

Play-by-play · 509 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  2. T9

    Thomas flied out to left.

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  6. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Alek Thomas

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  7. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  8. T9

    Arenado flied out to center.

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

    +5pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  12. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Nolan Arenado

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  13. T9

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  14. T9

    Smith flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

    +6pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  16. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  17. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  19. T9

    Edwin Diaz pitches to Pavin Smith

    · ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  20. T9

    Díaz relieved Klein

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  21. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  22. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  23. B8

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  24. B8

    Freeman flied out to center.

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  25. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  26. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  27. B8

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  28. B8

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  29. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

  30. B8

    Paul Sewald pitches to Freddie Freeman

    ·

    ARI 2·LAD 3

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

LAD

Home

2

Runs

3

5

Hits

6

1

Errors

0

6

TB

10

0

HR

1

1

BB

3

7

K

6

7

LOB

14

Betting line

LAD -1.5·O/U 8.5·ARI +203/LAD -252

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

LAD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shohei OhtaniLAD
    6.8± 3.4low
  • Emmet SheehanLAD
    5.9± 3.5low
  • Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
    5.9± 3.0low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.8± 1.0high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Tommy TroyARI
    1.3± 0.7low

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.1± 1.9high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.6± 2.9high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    2.3± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.3± 1.3high
  • Andy PagesLAD
    1.0± 1.0high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Eric LauerLAD
    3.1± 2.8low
  • Roki SasakiLAD
    2.8± 2.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.5%

ensemble · LAD favored

  • Elo Static

    64.7%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.2%

    P(LAD win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.5%

    P(LAD win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 13 players in cohort
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Teoscar HernandezLAD · LF
    SPRINT28.381