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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BOS
BOS

BOS

11-17

5
3
BAL

BAL

13-15

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland
32,511 attended

Line movement

28 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

BAL no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%BAL NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 4 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 5 · BAL 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000320005
BAL0000110103

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 98
    27
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 97
    227
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    166
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 25, 26sim 96
    296
    26(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 96
    25
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 95
    123
    24(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, Apr 26·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -143

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Baltimore Orioles and beat them, 5–3.

BOS +1.5 cashed (BAL lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Colton Cowser

Colton Cowser

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS11-17
5
3
BAL13-15
BOS11-17·BAL13-15
BOS

BOS

11-17

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-44100011
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-33112111
SPRINT26.838
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
0-33000012
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-33110010
SPRINT2872
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-44121001
SPRINT28.790
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-44011000
SPRINT27.560
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-44110001
SPRINT28.175
C. WongC. Wong★C
0-33000010
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
1-44011000
Team7-3232575156
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
6.2422142
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
0.1000000
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0211010
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000020
Team9.0633172
BAL

BAL

13-15

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-33000010
SPRINT27.457
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
2-44122101
SPRINT28.175
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
1-44010000
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-44000000
T. O'NeillT. O'Neill★RF
0-44000003
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
2-44121101
SPRINT25.310
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
0-33000001
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-33000001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
0-22000000
C. CowserC. CowserCF
1-11110000
SPRINT28.175
Team6-3232363217
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. BradishK. Bradish★SP
5.0433431
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0000000
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0000110
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
1.0000010
A. KittredgeA. KittredgeRP
1.0000010
Team9.0755561

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • C. Early
    92 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.1 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      17%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      15%·80.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·86.3 mph·14% whiff
    • ST
      8%·81.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    19 pitches·26% CSW
    • SI
      63%·94.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      21%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      16%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      43%·97.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      14%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      14%·84.6 mph·100% whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.0 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      50%·80.4 mph·50% whiff

BAL

  • K. Bradish
    88 pitches·20% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.4 mph·8% whiff
    • SI
      33%·94.3 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      19%·84.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      11%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    17 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      41%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      35%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      24%·91.6 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      50%·95.6 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      31%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.0 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      6%·85.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Kittredge
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      50%·89.0 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      44%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      6%·92.7 mph·— whiff
  • G. Wolfram
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      40%·95.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·96.2 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      10%·87.9 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      10%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·85.2 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      20%·85.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

6

5

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 24BOSBOS3@BALBAL10
Apr 25BOSBOS17@BALBAL1
Apr 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL3today

Season series

BOS leads series 2-1

Apr 24BOSBOS3@BALBAL10
Apr 25BOSBOS17@BALBAL1
Apr 26BOSBOS5@BALBAL3today
Jun 2BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jun 3BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jun 4BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 20BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 21BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Jul 22BALBAL@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 3BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 4BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 5BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming
Sep 6BOSBOS@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+11946%
BALBAL-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 5th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

6.2 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

BALBAL
C. Cowser

C. Cowser

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

K. Bradish

K. Bradish

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

BOS beat BAL 5-3. Contreras's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

BAL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+10pp→ 57% WP

Mayer · flied into double play, right to third, Rafaela thrown out at third.

BOSTop 5th Inning · 3-0
+21pp→ 83% WP

Contreras · homered to left center (406 feet), Duran scored.

BOSTop 6th Inning · 4-1
+11pp→ 90% WP

Rafaela · tripled to center, Abreu scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000320005
BAL0000110103

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · BAL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
1

Inn 5

Contreras 2

Basallo 1

2
1

Inn 6

Rafaela 1

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Henderson 1

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
BAL

Play-by-play · 552 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  3. B9

    Basallo struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  7. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Samuel Basallo

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  8. B9

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  9. B9

    O'Neill struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

    −3pp

  10. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  13. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Tyler O'Neill

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  14. B9

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  15. B9

    Alonso flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

    −5pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  17. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Pete Alonso

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  18. B9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  19. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  20. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  21. T9

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  22. T9

    Duran struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  23. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  24. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  29. T9

    Andrew Kittredge pitches to Jarren Duran

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

  30. T9

    ·

    BOS 5·BAL 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

5

Runs

3

7

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

13

TB

12

1

HR

2

5

BB

1

6

K

7

16

LOB

5

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 7.5·BOS +119/BAL -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

BAL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.7± 1.9high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.9low
  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    49.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.1%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.2%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.52 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175