Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at ATL?

The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 30, 2026

FINAL+3DET

DET

16-16

ATL

22-10

Truist Park · Atlanta, Georgia

32,620 attended

Line movement

64 snapshots

ATL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

ATL no-vig %

53.3%

open 53.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.0%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
60.2%
P(ATL win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
60.4%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
60.9%
P(ATL win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.3%

Close no-vig

53.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at ATL?: The model favors ATL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

ATL vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Tarik SkubalDET
6.3± 2.9low
Casey MizeDET
5.0± 2.1low

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.3± 1.2high
Michael Harris IIATL
1.2± 0.9high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 2.1high
Michael Harris IIATL
2.0± 1.6high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.8± 1.7high

RBIs

Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Colt KeithDET
0.7± 2.0high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
2.8± 2.9medium
JR RitchieATL
2.7± 2.5low
Framber ValdezDET
2.5± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

DET

league avg

ATL

.709

OPS

.719

▶

.734

.315

OBP

.319

.316

4.08

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.91

3.83

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.40

1.26

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

DET wins

DET 5 · ATL 2 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked ATL +10pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
DET	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	5
ATL	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. McGonigleSS	.328	2	0	0	0	0	3	0
G. Torres2B	.255	4	0	3	1	0	0	0
C. Keith3B	.326	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. GreeneLF	.283	3	1	0	0	0	2	3
S. Torkelson1B	.228	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.224	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
M. VierlingCF	.226	5	2	3	2	0	0	1
H. Lee2B	.208	3	0	0	0	0	2	0
J. RogersC	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. JonesDH	.194	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. PerezRF	.130	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
D. DinglerC	.247	2	0	1	1	0	0	1
Team		36	5	12	4	0	8	10

Player

.328

.255

.326

.283

.228

.224

.226

.208

.133

.194

.130

.247

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. ValdezSP	6.0	6	2	2	0	8	99
D. AndersonRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	31
K. FinneganRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	8	2	2	1	11	147

Player

F. ValdezSP

6.0

D. AndersonRP

2.0

K. FinneganRP

1.0

Team

9.0

147

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.240	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. BaldwinC	.308	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
O. Albies2B	.323	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.296	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.190	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. DubonSS	.275	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. FarmerDH	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. WhiteRF	.195	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
M. Harris IICF	.317	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. YastrzemskiLF	.209	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. SmithDH	.338	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	2	8	2	0	1	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ElderSP	6.0	6	1	1	3	5	90
T. KinleyRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	27
J. PayampsRP	0.1	2	2	2	1	1	17
A. BummerRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12
J. SuarezRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	2	31
Team	9.0	12	5	5	8	10	177

Team

DET

ATL

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

ATL vs DET.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs DET.

3 sub-models, blended.