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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+5SEA
SEA

SEA

22-23

8
3
HOU

HOU

17-28

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
24,398 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

HOU spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

HOU no-vig %

45.9%

open 45.8% · +0.1

+2.0-0.5HOU SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL49.9%40.9%HOU NO-VIG %May 13, 5 PMMay 14, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 8 · HOU 3 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked SEA +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA3002020108
HOU0010020003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+61.2pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best
—DraftKings

edge +61.2pp · implied 0.0%

HOU

no live price

BookSEAHOUBest edge
DraftKings—★-102+61.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Thu, May 14·Final/SeriesSEA wins series 3-1/VegasSEA -119

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Houston Astros and beat them, 8–3.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Mitch Garver

Mitch Garver

C

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

3.000OPS

3-3

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA22-23
8
3
HOU17-28
SEA22-23·HOU17-28
SEA

SEA

22-23

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. DonovanB. Donovan★3B
3-55130000
SPRINT25.18
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
0-55000002
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44010012
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-33100021
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
2-55223100
SPRINT28.175
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
2-55121001
SPRINT25.513
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44110000
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-33212110
SPRINT24.53
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-33012010
SPRINT27.662
Team11-37378118256
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. CastilloL. Castillo★SP
5.2433361
N. DavilaN. DavilaRP
1.1000100
D. GonzalezD. GonzalezSP
2.0100120
Team9.0533581
HOU

HOU

17-28

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Z. ColeZ. Cole★LF
0-55000003
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-44000001
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
3-33231110
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-33000013
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-33100010
SPRINT25.920
B. ShewmakeB. Shewmake★SS
2-44022000
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-44000001
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-44000000
C. SalazarC. Salazar★C
0-22000020
Team5-3232353158
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. BurrowsM. Burrows★SP
5.2877342
C. BoltonC. BoltonSP
3.1311220
Team9.01188562

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Castillo
    108 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      38%·95.7 mph·21% whiff
    • CH
      22%·87.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.2 mph·11% whiff
    • SI
      19%·95.9 mph·10% whiff
  • D. Gonzalez
    35 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      49%·93.5 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      34%·86.7 mph·43% whiff
    • SI
      14%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • N. Davila
    25 pitches·16% CSW
    • SL
      64%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      32%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      4%·95.5 mph·— whiff

HOU

  • M. Burrows
    102 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      28%·86.7 mph·31% whiff
    • SI
      22%·94.1 mph·15% whiff
    • SL
      21%·89.9 mph·27% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·79.4 mph·33% whiff
  • C. Bolton
    56 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      34%·91.1 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·89.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      7%·79.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

5

8

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

SEA wins series 3-1

May 12SEASEA3@HOUHOU1
May 13SEASEA10@HOUHOU2
May 14SEASEA3@HOUHOU4
May 14SEASEA8@HOUHOU3today

Season series

SEA leads series 7-1

Apr 11HOUHOU6@SEASEA9
Apr 12HOUHOU7@SEASEA8
Apr 12HOUHOU1@SEASEA6
Apr 13HOUHOU2@SEASEA6
May 12SEASEA3@HOUHOU1
May 13SEASEA10@HOUHOU2
May 14SEASEA3@HOUHOU4
May 14SEASEA8@HOUHOU3today
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 15SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Aug 16SEASEA@HOUHOUupcoming
Sep 23HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming
Sep 24HOUHOU@SEASEAupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.5h

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

SEASEA-11954%
HOUHOU-10250%

↘1· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 1st Inning

SEASEA
M. Garver

M. Garver

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

L. Castillo

L. Castillo

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-3 · 1 HR · 3.000 OPS

M. Burrows

M. Burrows

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 4 K · 7 ER · 8 H · 3 BB

How it ended

SEA beat HOU 8-3. Raley's play in the top 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 3-0
+27pp→ 69% WP

Raley · homered to left center (368 feet), Donovan scored and Arozarena scored.

HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 31% WP

Alvarez · homered to center (422 feet).

SEATop 4th Inning · 5-1
+17pp→ 86% WP

Garver · homered to left (369 feet), Crawford scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA3002020108
HOU0010020003

Period scoring

SEA won 3 · HOU won 1

3
0

Inn 1

Raley 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Alvarez 1

2
0

Inn 4

Garver 2

0
0

Inn 5

2
2

Inn 6

Young 2

Shewmake 2

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Crawford 1

0
0

Inn 9

SEA
HOU

Play-by-play · 604 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  3. B9

    Cole struck out looking.

    · ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  8. B9

    Domingo Gonzalez pitches to Zach Cole

    · ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  9. B9

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  10. B9

    Salazar walked.

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  11. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 4

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  12. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  19. B9

    Domingo Gonzalez pitches to Cesar Salazar

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  20. B9

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  21. B9

    Smith grounded out to third.

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  25. B9

    Domingo Gonzalez pitches to Cam Smith

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  26. B9

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  27. B9

    Matthews grounded out to third.

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

    −0.5pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

  30. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 8·HOU 3

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

8

Runs

3

11

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

23

TB

10

2

HR

1

5

BB

5

6

K

8

18

LOB

13

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 9·SEA -119/HOU -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

HOU vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Tatsuya ImaiHOU
    2.7± 3.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    45.1%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    45.7%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    44.9%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.34 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 15, 26sim 94
    308
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 93
    123
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 93
    147
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 92
    63
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 92
    143
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 92
    1210
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs