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    DET 3@KC 2
    -29.6pphigh
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THE ONE Analytics
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DET logo
DET
3
LiveBot 4th
KC logo
KC
2
Updated 8:39 PM ET
BOT 4TH+1DET↑
DET

DET

18-22

3
2
KC

KC

19-21

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

53.1%

DET wins · current

Pre-game: 57.0% KC

DET 3 · 2 KC

DET +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4
away leadsKC leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ◆ClutchKCBottom 4th Inning · 3-2
    +8pp→ 49% WP

    Caglianone · doubled to left.

  • ↑SwingKCBottom 3rd Inning · 3-1
    +10pp→ 46% WP

    Pasquantino · singled to left, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.

  • ↑SwingDETTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
    +17pp→ 79% WP

    Vierling · doubled to center, Lee scored on error and Short scored on error, Vierling safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Isbel.

  • ↺Lead flipDETTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
    +8pp→ 54% WP

    Greene · singled to right.

  • ↑SwingKCBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
    +7pp→ 59% WP

    Garcia · reached on infield single to shortstop.

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 5.40

B. Hanifee

0-0 · 0.00 ERA

vs

N. Cameron

2-2 · 5.40 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

KC no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.2%

-1.0-2.0KC SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL58.2%50.2%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 57.0%May 10, 1 AMMay 10, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelLean
Sun, May 10
DET

DET

Tigers

18-23

vs57.0%KC

KC★

Royals

20-21

KC
DET 43.0%win prob57.0% KC
KC 1505 · DET 1481Box score→

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 58-37
59%Last 30 · 254-176
Receipts →

Live · model intelligence

66% confidence

Win prob · home

27.4%

-29.6ppvs pre-game · DET favored

Leverage

54

high

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-131

Close price

-131

Open no-vig

54.2%

Close no-vig

54.2%

Line barely moved

MLB·Sun, May 10·Bot 4th/SeriesKC leads series 2-0/VegasKC -131
Updated 0s ago

DET · top performer

DET
Matt Vierling

Matt Vierling

CF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 4th
DET18-22
3
2
KC19-21
DET18-22·KC19-21
DET

DET

18-22

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. VierlingM. Vierling★CF
1-22012010
SPRINT28.483
K. McGonigleK. McGonigle★SS
0-22000000
J. JonesJ. Jones★RF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.278
D. DinglerD. Dingler★C
0-11000010
R. GreeneR. Greene★LF
1-22010001
SPRINT2744
W. PerezW. Perez★RF
0-22100000
SPRINT27.969
S. TorkelsonS. Torkelson★1B
0-22000002
H. LeeH. Lee★3B
1-22111000
SPRINT27.457
Z. ShortZ. Short★3B
0-11100010
Team4-1616343034
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. HanifeeB. Hanifee★RP
0.2200000
B. HurterB. HurterRP
1.1000110
D. AndersonD. AndersonRP
1.0422020
Team3.0622130
KC

KC

19-21

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-22120000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-22120000
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-22011000
SPRINT25.411
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-22000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-11001000
SPRINT27.457
N. LoftinN. Loftin★3B
0-11000011
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.148
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
0-11000001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-11000000
Team6-1414262013
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
4.0433340
Team4.0433340

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

DET

  • D. Anderson
    27 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      37%·96.3 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      30%·90.5 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      26%·80.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      7%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Hurter
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      44%·91.5 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      33%·80.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·91.7 mph·— whiff
  • B. Hanifee
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      50%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·88.2 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    91 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      29%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      24%·90.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      23%·82.9 mph·43% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      10%·81.0 mph·25% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

6

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

1

Current series

KC leads series 2-0

May 8DETDET3@KCKC4
May 9DETDET1@KCKC5
May 10DETDET@KCKCtoday

Season series

DET leads series 3-2

Apr 14KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 15KCKC1@DETDET2
Apr 16KCKC9@DETDET10
May 8DETDET3@KCKC4
May 9DETDET1@KCKC5
May 10DETDET@KCKCtoday
Jul 23KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 24KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 25KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Jul 26KCKC@DETDETupcoming
Aug 22DETDET@KCKCupcoming
Aug 22DETDET@KCKCupcoming
Aug 23DETDET@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+10948%
KCKC-13157%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
DETDETRP
B. Hanifee

B. Hanifee

#75 · 0-0

ERA

0.00

K

4

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/5vsBOSBOS3.0 IP · 0 ER · 2 K-
5/3vsTEXTEX1.2 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-
5/1vsTEXTEX1.0 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-
VS
KCKCSP
N. Cameron

N. Cameron

#65 · 2-2

ERA

5.40

K

28

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/30@ATHATH5.1 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(2-2)
4/24vsLAALAA6.1 IP · 3 ER · 6 KW(2-1)
4/18@NYYNYY4.0 IP · 5 ER · 3 KL(1-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
DETDET2L · 6R · 1S
  1. 1

    M. Vierling

    CF · #8

    R
  2. 2

    K. McGonigle

    3B · #7

    L
  3. 3

    J. Jones

    DH · #18

    R
  4. 4

    D. Dingler

    C · #13

    R
  5. 5

    R. Greene

    LF · #31

    L
  6. 6

    W. Perez

    RF · #46

    B
  7. 7

    S. Torkelson

    1B · #20

    R
  8. 8

    H. Lee

    2B · #50

    R
  9. 9

    Z. Short

    SS · #15

    R
KCKC4L · 4R · 1S
  1. 1

    M. Garcia

    3B · #11

    R
  2. 2

    B. Witt Jr.

    SS · #7

    R
  3. 3

    V. Pasquantino

    1B · #9

    L
  4. 4

    I. Collins

    LF · #1

    B
  5. 5

    C. Jensen

    DH · #22

    L
  6. 6

    N. Loftin

    2B · #12

    R
  7. 7

    J. Caglianone

    RF · #14

    L
  8. 8

    E. Diaz

    C · #43

    R
  9. 9

    K. Isbel

    CF · #28

    L

Live · top performers so far

Bot 4th
Game flowDET ↔ KC

Recent swing: 10pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

DETDET
M. Vierling

M. Vierling

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

D. Anderson

D. Anderson

RP

Top reliever

1.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 4 H

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 5 ER

How it's going

DET lead KC 3-2 (Bot 4th).

Win probability

KC vs DET

0255075100I2I3I4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
DETTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+17pp→ 79% WP

Vierling · doubled to center, Lee scored on error and Short scored on error, Vierling safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Isbel.

KCBottom 3rd Inning · 3-1
+10pp→ 46% WP

Pasquantino · singled to left, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to third.

KCBottom 4th Inning · 3-2
+8pp→ 49% WP

Caglianone · doubled to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234R
DET03003
KC00202

Period scoring

DET won 1 · KC won 1

0
0

Inn 1

3
0

Inn 2

Vierling 2

0
2

Inn 3

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 4

DET
KC

Play-by-play · 268 plays

period
event
player
  1. B4

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  2. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  3. B4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  4. B4

    Drew Anderson pitches to Elias Diaz

    · ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  5. B4

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  6. B4

    Caglianone doubled to left.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

    +8pp

  7. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  8. B4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  9. B4

    Drew Anderson pitches to Jac Caglianone

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  10. B4

    Bottom of the 4th inning

    DET 3·KC 2

  11. M4

    Middle of the 4th inning

    DET 3·KC 2

  12. T4

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  13. T4

    Vierling lined out to center.

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

    +0.8pp

  14. T4

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  15. T4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  16. T4

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  17. T4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  18. T4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  19. T4

    Noah Cameron pitches to Matt Vierling

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  20. T4

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  21. T4

    Short flied out to center.

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

    +1pp

  22. T4

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  23. T4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  24. T4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  25. T4

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  26. T4

    Noah Cameron pitches to Zack Short

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  27. T4

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  28. T4

    Lee flied out to right.

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

    +2pp

  29. T4

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

  30. T4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    DET 3·KC 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

KC

Home

3

Runs

2

4

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

7

TB

8

0

HR

0

3

BB

1

4

K

3

12

LOB

12

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 8.5·DET +109/KC -131

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Matt VierlingDET · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Kevin McGonigleDET · SS
    SPRINT28.278
  • Jahmai JonesDET · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nick LoftinKC · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

KC vs DET.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

116

projections · 54 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kris BubicKC
    5.9± 3.7low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    5.3± 3.4low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Riley GreeneDET
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.2± 1.1high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    2.1± 2.2high
  • Riley GreeneDET
    1.9± 1.4high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Dillon DinglerDET
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Nick LoftinKC
    0.7± 1.5medium
  • Matt VierlingDET
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    3.2± 2.5low
  • Jack FlahertyDET
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Kris BubicKC
    2.3± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    57.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.5%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    58.6%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.58 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

83% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen