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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
SF

SF

13-18

5
6
PHI

PHI

12-19

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
34,109 attended

Line movement

42 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PHI no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL60.3%52.3%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 58.7%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

SF 5 · PHI 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team12345678910R
SF00011200105
PHI20002000116

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-143

Close price

-143

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Thu, Apr 30·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 3-0/VegasPHI -143

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off San Francisco Giants, 6–5. It came down to the final possession.

SF +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SF · top performer

SF
Drew Gilbert

Drew Gilbert

CF

1.200OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

2.750OPS

4-4

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/10
SF13-18
5
6
PHI12-19
SF13-18·PHI12-19
SF

SF

13-18

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
H. RamosH. Ramos★LF
1-55011004
SPRINT27.251
M. ChapmanM. Chapman★3B
0-44000022
L. ArraezL. Arraez★2B
2-66022001
SPRINT26.632
C. SchmittC. Schmitt★DH
2-55220000
SPRINT2872
R. DeversR. Devers★1B
1-33011012
W. AdamesW. Adames★SS
1-55010002
J. LeeJ. Lee★RF
2-44121010
SPRINT27.148
E. HaaseE. Haase★C
1-33110001
D. GilbertD. Gilbert★CF
3-55130000
SPRINT26.428
W. BrennanW. BrennanLF
0-11000000
Team13-414151350512
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. HouserA. Houser★SP
4.2433222
R. BoruckiR. BoruckiRP
0.1211100
C. KilianC. KilianRP
2.0100020
K. WinnK. WinnRP
2.0211300
M. GageM. GageRP
0.2010000
Team9.2965642
PHI

PHI

12-19

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-55221101
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
4-44242110
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-22000031
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44112010
SPRINT26.735
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000000
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44001001
SPRINT26.632
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-44010000
F. ReyesF. Reyes★LF
0-33000000
G. StubbsG. Stubbs★C
0-33000011
B. MarshB. MarshLF
1-11110000
SPRINT28.175
Team9-3333696264
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. MayzaT. Mayza★RP
2.0200120
N. HoffmanN. HoffmanRP
2.0411110
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0122110
T. RichardsT. RichardsRP
2.1311130
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0011030
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
0.2200110
C. ShugartC. ShugartRP
1.0100010
Team10.013555120

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SF

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

PHI

  • C. Shugart
    4 pitches·50% CSW
    • ST
      50%·81.3 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      25%·91.0 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      25%·95.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

9

5

Runs

6

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 3-0

Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6today

Season series

PHI wins series 4-2

Apr 7PHIPHI6@SFSF4
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF6
Apr 8PHIPHI0@SFSF5
Apr 28SFSF0@PHIPHI7
Apr 29SFSF0@PHIPHI0
Apr 30SFSF2@PHIPHI3
Apr 30SFSF5@PHIPHI6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SFSF+11946%
PHIPHI-14359%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 42 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSF ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 46pp · Bottom 9th Inning

SFSF
D. Gilbert

D. Gilbert

CF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 R · 1.200 OPS

A. Houser

A. Houser

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

T. Richards

T. Richards

RP

Top reliever

2.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

PHI beat SF 6-5. Schwarber's play in the bottom 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (46pp).

Win probability

PHI vs SF

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SFTop 9th Inning · 5-4
+35pp→ 86% WP

Lee · singled to center, Schmitt scored, Devers to second.

PHIBottom 9th Inning · 5-4
+28pp→ 41% WP

Marsh · doubled to center.

PHIBottom 9th Inning · 5-5
+46pp→ 62% WP

Schwarber · doubled to right, Marsh scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team12345678910R
SF00011200105
PHI20002000116

Period scoring

SF won 2 · PHI won 3

0
2

Inn 1

Turner 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Ramos 1

1
2

Inn 5

Devers 1

Garc 2

2
0

Inn 6

Arraez 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

1
1

Inn 9

Lee 1

Schwarber 1

0
1

Inn 10

Bohm 1

SF
PHI

Play-by-play · 674 plays

period
event
player
  1. B10

    ·

    SF 5·PHI 6

  2. B10

    Bohm hit sacrifice fly to center, García scored.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 6

    +17pp

  3. B10

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 6

  4. B10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  5. B10

    Matt Gage pitches to Alec Bohm

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 6

  6. B10

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  7. B10

    Stott hit sacrifice bunt to third, García to third.

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

    +4pp

  8. B10

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  9. B10

    Matt Gage pitches to Bryson Stott

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  10. B10

    Gage relieved Winn

    ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  11. B10

    Bottom of the 10th inning

    SF 5·PHI 5

  12. M10

    Middle of the 10th inning

    SF 5·PHI 5

  13. T10

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  14. T10

    Schmitt flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

    +13pp

  15. T10

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  16. T10

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  17. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  18. T10

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  19. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  20. T10

    Chase Shugart pitches to Casey Schmitt

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  21. T10

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  22. T10

    Arraez lined out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

    +20pp

  23. T10

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  24. T10

    Chase Shugart pitches to Luis Arraez

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  25. T10

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  26. T10

    Chapman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

    +12pp

  27. T10

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  28. T10

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  29. T10

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

  30. T10

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SF 5·PHI 5

Team stats

SF

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

5

Runs

6

13

Hits

9

0

Errors

0

16

TB

20

0

HR

2

5

BB

6

12

K

4

28

LOB

13

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·SF +119/PHI -143

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Justin CrawfordPHI · CF
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Matt ChapmanSF · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Casey SchmittSF · DH
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

PHI vs SF.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Landen RouppSF
    6.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Luis ArraezSF
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    2.4± 2.2high
  • Willy AdamesSF
    2.4± 2.1high

RBIs

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.9± 1.6high
  • Casey SchmittSF
    0.9± 1.3high
  • Rafael DeversSF
    0.8± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Logan WebbSF
    3.4± 2.6low
  • Adrian HouserSF
    3.1± 2.9low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    58.3%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    57.2%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.33 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 13, 26sim 96
    75
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 96
    2010
    17(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    263
    17(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 95
    75
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 95
    33
    17(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 95
    72
    4(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs