MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2PHI

PHI

21-23

BOS

18-25

Fenway Park · Boston, Massachusetts

31,046 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

BOS spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

BOS no-vig %

49.0%

open 47.8% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BOS favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

42.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
43.4%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
44.5%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
43.8%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.45 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.19

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+9.6pp

best edge · PHI · DraftKings

PHI

★ best

-102DraftKings

edge +9.6pp · implied 48.3%

BOS

no live price

Book	PHI	BOS	Best edge
DraftKings	-102★	-118	+9.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

BOS vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.7± 3.4medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.2± 2.6low
Payton TolleBOS
6.0± 3.9low

Hits

Willson ContrerasBOS
1.4± 1.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.2± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Willson ContrerasBOS
3.0± 3.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.1± 2.3high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.0± 2.5high

RBIs

Willson ContrerasBOS
0.9± 1.1high
Alec BohmPHI
0.8± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Andrew PainterPHI
3.7± 2.9low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.5± 2.6low
Jake BennettBOS
3.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

BOS

.686

OPS

.717

▶

.697

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.314

4.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.99

4.02

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.94

1.30

WHIP

1.31

1.29

9.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

PHI 3 · BOS 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.233	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
K. SchwarberDH	.226	5	1	1	2	1	0	3
B. Harper1B	.266	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. GarciaRF	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Bohm3B	.194	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
B. MarshLF	.340	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J.T. RealmutoC	.231	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
F. ReyesLF	.158	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Stott2B	.221	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.270	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	3	9	3	1	1	14

Player

.233

.226

.266

.222

.194

.340

.231

.158

.250

.221

.270

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	6.0	4	0	0	1	4	92
B. KellerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	21
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17
Team	9.0	7	1	1	2	10	145

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.178	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MonasterioSS	.258	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.310	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.252	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. RafaelaCF	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. StorySS	.206	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. NarvaezC	.214	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Durbin3B	.172	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. GasperC	.417	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.274	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Mayer2B	.230	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		32	1	7	1	0	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SuarezSP	5.1	4	0	0	1	8	76
J. SlatenRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	8
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
T. SamaniegoRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	8
Z. KellyRP	0.2	2	1	0	0	1	26
R. WatsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
Team	9.0	9	3	2	1	14	139

Team

PHI

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

BOS vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs PHI.

3 sub-models, blended.