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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1COL
COL

COL

7-12

3
2
HOU

HOU

8-12

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
27,842 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

61.1%

open 61.1%

-1.0-2.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL65.1%57.1%HOU NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMJun 2, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 3 · HOU 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked HOU +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0011100003
HOU2000000002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Player projections

HOU vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.4± 2.7low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    4.8± 2.8low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.4± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.1± 3.0high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.9%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    66.3%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    64.4%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.8%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 16, 26sim 97
    271
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 92
    272
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 91
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 90
    271
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 28, 26sim 89
    273
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 89
    276
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-177

Close price

-177

Open no-vig

61.1%

Close no-vig

61.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Apr 16·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasHOU -177

Recap · MLB

Colorado Rockies went into Houston Astros and beat them, 3–2. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (HOU lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1I. ParedesHOU−41.1pp
  2. 2C. CorreaHOU−35.9pp
  3. 3J. LoperfidoHOU−32.4pp

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Jose Altuve

Jose Altuve

2B

1.100OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
COL7-12
3
2
HOU8-12
COL7-12·HOU8-12
COL

COL

7-12

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-440000125.6
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
3-550310006.6
SPRINT27.148
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-4400001010.2
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
2-331211112.0
SPRINT27.148
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-3301001119.0
SPRINT2872
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-4400000012.0
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
1-440100016.8
SPRINT26.326
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
0-331000105.5
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
2-3312001025.4
SPRINT28.483
Team9-3333392165—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. MejiaJ. Mejia★RP
0.232202018.6
C. DollanderC. DollanderSP
5.110029017.4
J. HillJ. HillRP
1.01002104.1
J. HergetJ. HergetRP
1.000011016.3
V. VodnikV. VodnikRP
1.000010023.6
Team9.05226130—
HOU

HOU

8-12

2
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
2-441200125.7
SPRINT27.867
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-441110118.8
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-3300002241.1
SPRINT25.18
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-4401000235.9
SPRINT27.251
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-220000117.4
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
1-3301100132.4
SPRINT28.688
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
0-4400000222.6
T. TrammellT. Trammell★CF
0-330000106.0
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-4400000216.2
Team5-31312520613—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
R. WeissR. Weiss★RP
3.23224319.4
C. RoaC. RoaRP
1.131100014.8
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
2.02002204.0
K. TengK. TengRP
2.01000008.3
Team9.0933651—

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

3

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2today

Season series

COL wins series 4-2

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9
Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+14641%
HOUHOU-17764%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 7th Inning

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

C. Dollander

C. Dollander

SP

Top reliever

5.1 IP · 9 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 2 BB

HOUHOU
J. Altuve

J. Altuve

2B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 R · 1.100 OPS

R. Weiss

R. Weiss

RP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

COL beat HOU 3-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

HOU vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 6th Inning · 3-2
+16pp→ 70% WP

Correa · doubled to left, Paredes to third.

COLBottom 7th Inning · 3-2
+16pp→ 68% WP

Correa · lined out to first.

COLBottom 9th Inning · 3-2
+15pp→ 86% WP

Alvarez · lined out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0011100003
HOU2000000002

Period scoring

COL won 3 · HOU won 1

0
2

Inn 1

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 2

1
0

Inn 3

Freeman 1

1
0

Inn 4

Goodman 1

1
0

Inn 5

Freeman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

COL
HOU

Play-by-play · 631 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    COL 3·HOU 2

  2. B9

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  3. B9

    Paredes flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

    −14pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  8. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Isaac Paredes

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  9. B9

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  10. B9

    Alvarez lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

    −15pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  12. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Yordan Alvarez

    · ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  13. B9

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  14. B9

    Altuve walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

    +14pp

  15. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  21. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Jose Altuve

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  22. B9

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  23. B9

    Diaz grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

    −9pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  27. B9

    Victor Vodnik pitches to Yainer Diaz

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  28. B9

    Vodnik relieved Herget

    ·

    COL 3·HOU 2

  29. B9

    McCarthy in right field.

    COL 3·HOU 2

  30. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    COL 3·HOU 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

3

Runs

2

9

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

13

TB

7

1

HR

0

6

BB

6

5

K

13

19

LOB

21

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 8.5·COL +146/HOU -177

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jake McCarthyCOL · CF
    SPRINT29.698
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872