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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2HOU
COL

COL

6-12

1
3
HOU

HOU

8-11

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
28,298 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

63.3%

open 63.3%

-1.0-2.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL67.3%59.3%HOU NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMJun 2, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

COL 1 · HOU 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +16pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL0100000001
HOU201000003

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 17, 26sim 97
    273
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 91
    271
    23(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 27, 26sim 90
    271
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 89
    272
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 89
    276
    18(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 88
    274
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-196

Close price

-196

Open no-vig

63.3%

Close no-vig

63.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 15·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasHOU -196

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Colorado Rockies, 3–1.

HOU -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1J. QuintanaCOL−26.1pp
  2. 2C. CorreaHOU+19.0pp
  3. 3Y. AlvarezHOU+15.2pp

COL · top performer

COL
Willi Castro

Willi Castro

2B

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Yordan Alvarez

Yordan Alvarez

DH

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL6-12
1
3
HOU8-11
COL6-12·HOU8-11
COL

COL

6-12

1
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
E. JulienE. Julien★2B
0-440000126.2
M. MoniakM. Moniak★LF
1-330100021.5
SPRINT2872
H. GoodmanH. Goodman★C
0-4400000312.7
T. JohnstonT. Johnston★RF
0-000000100.3
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
0-440000013.1
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
0-3310001110.5
SPRINT27.867
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
1-110110003.3
SPRINT27.969
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
1-330100111.3
SPRINT29.698
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
0-330000016.7
B. DoyleB. DoyleCF
1-220100011.5
SPRINT28.483
K. KarrosK. Karros3B
0-110000111.1
T. FreemanT. FreemanRF
0-220000010.5
B. SullivanB. SullivanC
0-110000012.9
Team4-31311410515—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
J. QuintanaJ. Quintana★SP
3.233341126.1
J. HillJ. HillRP
0.10001001.8
T. GordonT. GordonRP
4.02001400.3
Team8.0533651—
HOU

HOU

8-11

3
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
0-2210002019.0
SPRINT27.251
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
2-3322111015.2
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-330000101.7
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-220010103.4
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-220110100.4
SPRINT29.395
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
0-440000003.1
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
0-440000022.6
N. AllenN. Allen★SS
2-330200012.0
SPRINT2744
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-330000023.3
Team5-2626353165—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
S. ArrighettiS. Arrighetti★SP
6.031141000.7
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.21000103.1
B. AbreuB. AbreuRP
1.10001200.4
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
1.00000206.3
Team9.04115150—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

  • J. Hill
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SL
      38%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      33%·97.0 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      19%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·85.5 mph·0% whiff

HOU

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

Hits

5

1

Runs

3

0

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3today
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2

Season series

COL leads series 3-2

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9
Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3today
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+16138%
HOUHOU-19666%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 10pp · Top 2nd Inning

COLCOL
W. Castro

W. Castro

2B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

T. Gordon

T. Gordon

RP

Top reliever

4.0 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 1 BB

HOUHOU
Y. Alvarez

Y. Alvarez

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

S. Arrighetti

S. Arrighetti

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 10 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

How it ended

HOU beat COL 3-1.

Win probability

HOU vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
HOUBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 71% WP

Correa · walked.

COLTop 2nd Inning · 1-2
+10pp→ 34% WP

Castro · doubled to center, Tovar scored.

HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 1-3
+7pp→ 85% WP

Alvarez · homered to right (375 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL0100000001
HOU20100000—3

Period scoring

COL won 1 · HOU won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Walker 1

1
0

Inn 2

Castro 1

0
1

Inn 3

Alvarez 1

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

COL
HOU

Play-by-play · 560 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  2. T9

    Doyle struck out looking.

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  4. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  5. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  6. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  7. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Brenton Doyle

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  8. T9

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  9. T9

    Julien flied out to center.

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

    +2pp

  10. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  14. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Edouard Julien

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  15. T9

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  16. T9

    Sullivan struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

    +3pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  18. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  19. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  20. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  23. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Brett Sullivan

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  24. T9

    De Los Santos relieved Abreu

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  25. T9

    Sullivan hit for Beck

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  26. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    COL 1·HOU 3

  27. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    COL 1·HOU 3

  28. B8

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  29. B8

    Loperfido struck out swinging.

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

  30. B8

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    COL 1·HOU 3

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

1

Runs

3

4

Hits

5

0

Errors

0

6

TB

11

0

HR

1

5

BB

6

15

K

5

16

LOB

12

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 8.5·COL +161/HOU -196

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

HOU vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.4± 2.7low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    4.8± 2.8low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.4± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.1± 3.0high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.6%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    65.5%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    70.0%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    66.1%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.99 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872