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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1HOU
COL

COL

6-11

6
7
HOU

HOU

7-11

Daikin Park · Houston, Texas
29,536 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

HOU spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

HOU no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0HOU SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL66.2%58.2%HOU NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMJun 2, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

COL 6 · HOU 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +15pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
COL1201100106
HOU016000007

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 59-37
61%Last 30 · 317-199
Receipts →

Player projections

HOU vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.4± 2.7low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    4.8± 2.8low

Hits

  • Willi CastroCOL
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.7medium

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.4± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.1± 3.0high
  • Jeremy PenaHOU
    1.9± 2.2high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high
  • Ezequiel TovarCOL
    0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

  • Kyle FreelandCOL
    3.8± 3.8low
  • Michael LorenzenCOL
    3.4± 3.0low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 16, 26sim 89
    271
    18(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 89
    272
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 89
    273
    18(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 88
    2710
    23(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 24, 26sim 87
    274
    21(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 85
    275
    25(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-186

Close price

-186

Open no-vig

62.2%

Close no-vig

62.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.1%

ensemble · HOU favored

  • Elo Static

    64.8%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    60.3%

    P(HOU win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    65.3%

    P(HOU win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

2.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

85% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Tue, Apr 14·Final/SeriesHOU wins series 2-1/VegasHOU -186

Recap · MLB

Houston Astros held off Colorado Rockies, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

COL +1.5 cashed (HOU won by 1). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. LorenzenCOL−49.7pp
  2. 2K. KarrosCOL+31.8pp
  3. 3C. VazquezHOU+29.4pp

COL · top performer

COL
Hunter Goodman

Hunter Goodman

C

2.000OPS

5-2

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

HOU · top performer

HOU
Christian Walker

Christian Walker

1B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

MLB · Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
COL6-11
6
7
HOU7-11
COL6-11·HOU7-11
COL

COL

6-11

6
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
T. FreemanT. Freeman★RF
0-330000115.3
B. DoyleB. Doyle★CF
1-220100016.6
H. GoodmanH. Goodman◆Multi-HR game★C
2-552222033.4
SPRINT27.148
W. CastroW. Castro★2B
0-5500000317.8
T. RumfieldT. Rumfield★1B
1-440100102.9
E. TovarE. Tovar★SS
1-441100129.0
SPRINT27.867
J. BeckJ. Beck★LF
2-552211018.4
SPRINT28.175
K. KarrosK. Karros★3B
2-3312001031.8
SPRINT27.251
J. McCarthyJ. McCarthy★CF
2-3302200124.4
SPRINT29.698
M. MoniakM. MoniakLF
0-330000000.0
T. JohnstonT. JohnstonRF
1-110110003.8
Team12-383861263412—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
M. LorenzenM. Lorenzen★SP
2.277213149.7
A. SenzatelaA. SenzatelaRP
3.12000300.8
J. MejiaJ. MejiaRP
1.02000100.7
Z. AgnosZ. AgnosRP
1.00000206.3
Team8.01172191—
HOU

HOU

7-11

7
batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 BattingAnalytics
Player
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
0-5510000219.6
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
1-4411200125.2
SPRINT24.64
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
0-330000103.3
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-441100008.6
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
3-4423210024.8
SPRINT25.920
C. SmithC. Smith★RF
1-441110017.3
SPRINT29.395
J. LoperfidoJ. Loperfido★LF
2-440210013.3
SPRINT28.688
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
0-220000016.1
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-4412100229.4
SPRINT22.90
T. TrammellT. TrammellCF
1-220100016.4
Team11-36367117119—
pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
 PitchingAnalytics
Player
CC. Gordon★SP
3.284405229.2
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.11111111.2
S. OkertS. OkertRP
1.00001102.1
K. TengK. TengRP
1.10112202.7
B. KingB. KingRP
1.130002010.4
E. De Los SantosE. De Los SantosRP
0.100001012.9
Team9.012664123—

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

COL

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

HOU

  • E. De Los Santos
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • FF
      50%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·84.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • S. Okert
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SL
      57%·79.8 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      43%·91.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

11

6

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

HOU wins series 2-1

Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7today
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2

Season series

COL leads series 3-1

Apr 7HOUHOU7@COLCOL9
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL5
Apr 8HOUHOU1@COLCOL9
Apr 15COLCOL6@HOUHOU7today
Apr 16COLCOL1@HOUHOU3
Apr 17COLCOL3@HOUHOU2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL+15340%
HOUHOU-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗SpreadBet HOU -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCOL ↔ HOU

Biggest swing: 21pp · Top 2nd Inning

COLCOL
H. Goodman

H. Goodman

C

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-5 · 2 HR · 2.000 OPS

A. Senzatela

A. Senzatela

RP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 2 H

HOUHOU
C. Walker

C. Walker

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

C. Gordon

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 8 H

How it ended

HOU beat COL 7-6. McCarthy's play in the top 2nd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
COLTop 2nd Inning · 3-0
+21pp→ 67% WP

McCarthy · tripled to center, Beck scored and Karros scored.

HOUBottom 3rd Inning · 3-3
+19pp→ 74% WP

Alvarez · doubled to right, Altuve scored and Vázquez scored.

COLTop 8th Inning · 6-7
+13pp→ 30% WP

Johnston · singled to center, Tovar scored, Julien to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
COL1201100106
HOU01600000—7

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

HOU

Home

6

Runs

7

12

Hits

11

1

Errors

0

23

TB

17

3

HR

1

4

BB

1

12

K

9

16

LOB

16

Betting line

HOU -1.5·O/U 8.5·COL +153/HOU -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Win probability

HOU vs COL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

COL won 5 · HOU won 1

1
0

Inn 1

Goodman 1

2
1

Inn 2

McCarthy 2

Walker 1

0
6

Inn 3

Alvarez 2

1
0

Inn 4

Beck 1

1
0

Inn 5

Goodman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Johnston 1

0

Inn 9

COL
HOU

Play-by-play · 606 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  2. T9

    Beck struck out looking.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

    +13pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  8. T9

    Enyel De Los Santos pitches to Jordan Beck

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  9. T9

    De Los Santos relieved King

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  10. T9

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  11. T9

    Tovar singled to right, Sullivan to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

    −6pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  13. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  15. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Ezequiel Tovar

    · ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  16. T9

    Sullivan ran for Rumfield

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  17. T9

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  18. T9

    Rumfield singled to center.

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

    −4pp

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  22. T9

    Bryan King pitches to TJ Rumfield

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  23. T9

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  24. T9

    Castro popped out to shortstop.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

    +5pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  27. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  28. T9

    Bryan King pitches to Willi Castro

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  29. T9

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

  30. T9

    Goodman struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    COL 6·HOU 7

    +6pp

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Cam SmithHOU · RF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey LoperfidoHOU · LF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brenton DoyleCOL · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brice MatthewsHOU · CF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Mickey MoniakCOL · LF
    SPRINT2872