Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 25, 2026

FINAL+5TB

MIN

12-15

15-11

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida

17,014 attended

Line movement

45 snapshots

TB spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

TB no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.7%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
61.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.5%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.8%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TB vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.4± 2.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.7± 2.4low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.4± 1.0high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.2± 1.4high
Yandy DiazTB
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
3.0± 2.3high
Josh BellMIN
1.9± 1.6high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.8± 2.5high

RBIs

Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.2high
Josh BellMIN
0.8± 0.9high
Kody ClemensMIN
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 2.2low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

.731

OPS

◀

.718

.715

.322

OBP

.319

▶

.333

4.86

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.37

4.75

Team ERA

4.18

▶

3.88

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.22

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

MIN 1 · TB 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TB +11pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
TB	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.229	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
A. MartinRF	.327	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. BellDH	.244	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. JeffersC	.266	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Keaschall2B	.206	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. WallnerRF	.186	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.212	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. LeeSS	.250	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	1	5	1	0	2	11

Player

.229

.327

.244

.266

.222

.206

.186

.212

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. OberSP	6.0	3	2	2	2	3	83
T. RogersRP	0.0	2	3	3	1	0	15
E. OrzeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	9
G. ActonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	18
Team	8.0	8	6	6	3	6	125

Player

6.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

125

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SimpsonLF	.304	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
J. Caminero3B	.269	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.226	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. DiazDH	.337	3	2	1	0	0	0	0
J. FraleyRF	.240	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.261	4	1	3	2	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.145	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. FortesC	.294	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.256	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
J. DeLucaRF	.286	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
Team		29	6	8	6	1	3	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. McClanahanSP	5.0	3	0	0	2	7	86
K. KellyRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	32
H. BiggeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
T. MartinRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	17
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	11	146

Team

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

TB vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs MIN.

3 sub-models, blended.