Matchup orbital
1
MIN
MIN
12-15
Final
Win prob
AWAY · HOME
6
TB
TB
15-11
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
TB wins
MIN 1 · TB 6 (by 5)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked TB +11pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
MIN12-15
MIN
15-11TB
TB
Recap · MLB
ampa Bay Rays held off Minnesota Twins, 6–1.
TB -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Current series
TB wins series 3-0
MIN2@TB6MIN1@TB6todayMIN2@TB4Season series
TB leads series 4-1
TB4@MIN10TB7@MIN1TB4@MIN1MIN2@TB6MIN1@TB6todayMIN2@TB4Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
MIN+11347%TB-13658%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 2 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 24pp · Bottom 4th Inning
MIN
B. Buxton
CFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS
B. Ober
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 2 BB
TB
J. Fraley
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS
S. McClanahan
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 7 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB
How it ended
TB beat MIN 6-1. Fraley's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (24pp).
Win probability
TB vs MIN
Score progression
0 lead changes
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAranda · flied into double play, left to catcher, Simpson thrown out at home.
Fraley · homered to right center (401 feet), Díaz scored.
Caratini · grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Jeffers out at second.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | — | 6 |
Period scoring
MIN won 0 · TB won 3
Inn 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Inn 4
Fraley 2
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Williamson 1
Inn 8
Williamson 1
Inn 9
Lewis 1
Game flow · key plays
- T6
Caratini grounded into double play, pitcher to shortstop to first, Jeffers out at second.
MIN 0·TB 2
+11pp
- T5
Bell grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Buxton out at second.
MIN 0·TB 2
+7pp
- T5
Martin struck out swinging.
MIN 0·TB 2
+6pp
- B4
Fraley homered to right center (401 feet), Díaz scored.
MIN 0·TB 2
+24pp
- T3
Jeffers grounded out to shortstop.
MIN 0·TB 0
+6pp
- B1
Aranda flied into double play, left to catcher, Simpson thrown out at home.
MIN 0·TB 0
−10pp
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
TB
Home
5
Hits
8
0
Errors
3
1
Runs
6
Player box score
MIN
12-15
B. Buxton★
CF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
2-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
A. Martin★
LF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Bell★
1B
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Jeffers★
C
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
V. Caratini★
C
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
L. Keaschall★
2B
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
M. Wallner★
RF
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
R. Lewis★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
B. Lee★
SS
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
5-33
R
1
RBI
1
HR
0
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
B. Buxton★CF | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
A. Martin★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
J. Bell★1B | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
R. Jeffers★C | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
V. Caratini★C | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
L. Keaschall★2B | 1-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
M. Wallner★RF | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
R. Lewis★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
B. Lee★SS | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Team | 5-33 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — |
B. Ober★
SP
IP
6.0
H
3
ER
2
K
3
E. Orze
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
G. Acton
RP
IP
1.0
H
2
ER
1
K
2
IP
8.0
H
8
ER
6
K
6
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
B. Ober★SP | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
E. OrzeRP | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
G. ActonRP | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Team | 8.0 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
TB
15-11
C. Simpson★
LF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Caminero★
3B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
1-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Aranda★
1B
OPS
0.000
H-AB
0-4
R
0
RBI
0
HR
0
Y. Diaz★
1B
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
2
RBI
0
HR
0
J. Fraley★
RF
OPS
2.500
H-AB
1-2
R
1
RBI
2
HR
1
B. Williamson★
2B
OPS
1.500
H-AB
3-4
R
1
RBI
2
HR
0
C. Mullins★
CF
OPS
0.250
H-AB
0-3
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
N. Fortes★
C
OPS
0.667
H-AB
1-3
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
R. Palacios★
2B
OPS
0.500
H-AB
0-1
R
0
RBI
1
HR
0
J. DeLuca
RF
OPS
1.000
H-AB
1-2
R
1
RBI
0
HR
0
H-AB
8-29
R
6
RBI
6
HR
1
| Player | H-AB | R | RBI | HR | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
C. Simpson★LF | 0-3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
J. Caminero★3B | 1-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 |
J. Aranda★1B | 0-4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Y. Diaz★1B | 1-3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 |
J. Fraley★RF | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2.500 |
B. Williamson★2B | 3-4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.500 |
C. Mullins★CF | 0-3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 |
N. Fortes★C | 1-3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 |
R. Palacios★2B | 0-1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 |
J. DeLucaRF | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Team | 8-29 | 6 | 6 | 1 | — |
S. McClanahan★
SP
IP
5.0
H
3
ER
0
K
7
K. Kelly
RP
IP
2.0
H
1
ER
0
K
1
H. Bigge
RP
IP
1.0
H
0
ER
0
K
2
T. Martin
RP
IP
1.0
H
1
ER
1
K
1
IP
9.0
H
5
ER
1
K
11
| Player | IP | H | ER | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|
S. McClanahan★SP | 5.0 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
K. KellyRP | 2.0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
H. BiggeRP | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
T. MartinRP | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Team | 9.0 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 8.5·MIN +113/TB -136