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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+11ATH
ATH

ATH

19-18

12
1
PHI

PHI

17-21

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
37,543 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

PHI no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

+0.5-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 54.3%May 6, 5 PMMay 7, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

ATH 12 · PHI 1 (by 11)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ATH40312020012
PHI0001000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 23, 26sim 97
    238
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 97
    77
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 97
    177
    5(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    236
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 97
    174
    5(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 96
    58
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, May 7·Final/SeriesPHI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -137

Recap · MLB

Athletics went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 12–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

ATH +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ATH · top performer

ATH
Brent Rooker

Brent Rooker

DH

1.850OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber

DH

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ATH19-18
12
1
PHI17-21
ATH19-18·PHI17-21
ATH

ATH

19-18

12
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. KurtzN. Kurtz★1B
1-44111011
S. LangeliersS. Langeliers★C
2-55222100
SPRINT28.586
T. SoderstromT. Soderstrom★LF
1-33210020
B. RookerB. Rooker★DH
2-44123111
SPRINT27.148
C. CortesC. Cortes★RF
2-55121001
SPRINT25.716
J. WilsonJ. Wilson★SS
1-44112100
SPRINT27.148
L. ButlerL. Butler★RF
1-44210010
Z. GelofZ. Gelof★3B
2-55223101
SPRINT28.891
J. McNeilJ. McNeil★2B
1-44010003
B. HarrisB. Harris3B
0-11000000
Team13-3939121312457
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J.T. GinnJ.T. Ginn★SP
8.0411181
B. KriskeB. KriskeRP
1.0200010
Team9.0611191
PHI

PHI

17-21

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-33000001
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-44121100
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
0-11000010
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT28.175
B. StottB. Stott★2B
0-33000001
E. SosaE. Sosa★2B
0-33000001
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-33010001
SPRINT29.798
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-33000001
G. StubbsG. StubbsC
0-11000001
F. ReyesF. ReyesLF
1-22010001
SPRINT28.278
Team6-3131161119
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PainterA. Painter★SP
3.2788323
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.1422120
C. ShugartC. ShugartRP
2.0222121
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.0000010
G. StubbsG. StubbsC
1.0000000
Team9.0131212574

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ATH

  • J.T. Ginn
    96 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      32%·94.8 mph·36% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.1 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      18%·89.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      4%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Kriske
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·92.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      36%·82.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      29%·85.0 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • A. Painter
    88 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.2 mph·7% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.7 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.6 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      10%·86.3 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·80.5 mph·100% whiff
  • C. Shugart
    44 pitches·32% CSW
    • SI
      32%·95.2 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      30%·91.2 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      18%·81.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      11%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·96.7 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    35 pitches·26% CSW
    • SL
      49%·87.1 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      20%·91.8 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      20%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      9%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·83.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      45%·96.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      27%·88.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·91.2 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      9%·83.8 mph·— whiff
  • G. Stubbs
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • EP
      100%·44.0 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

13

Hits

6

12

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

PHI wins series 2-1

May 5ATHATH1@PHIPHI9
May 6ATHATH3@PHIPHI6
May 7ATHATH12@PHIPHI1today

Season series

PHI wins series 2-1

May 5ATHATH1@PHIPHI9
May 6ATHATH3@PHIPHI6
May 7ATHATH12@PHIPHI1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ATHATH+11447%
PHIPHI-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowATH ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 15pp · Top 1st Inning

ATHATH
B. Rooker

B. Rooker

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.850 OPS

J.T. Ginn

J.T. Ginn

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

8.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
K. Schwarber

K. Schwarber

DH

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Painter

A. Painter

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 2 K · 8 ER · 7 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ATH beat PHI 12-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs ATH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 70% WP

Langeliers · homered to left center (412 feet), Kurtz scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ATH40312020012
PHI0001000001

Period scoring

ATH won 4 · PHI won 0

4
0

Inn 1

Langeliers 2

0
0

Inn 2

3
0

Inn 3

Wilson 2

1
1

Inn 4

Rooker 1

Schwarber 1

2
0

Inn 5

Gelof 1

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Gelof 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ATH
PHI

Play-by-play · 572 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  3. B9

    Marsh grounded out to first.

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  7. B9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Brandon Marsh

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  9. B9

    García singled to left, Reyes to second.

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  11. B9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Adolis Garcia

    · ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  12. B9

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  13. B9

    Reyes singled to left.

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  17. B9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Felix Reyes

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  18. B9

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  19. B9

    Schwarber popped out to first.

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  23. B9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Kyle Schwarber

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  24. B9

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  25. B9

    Stubbs struck out swinging.

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

  30. B9

    Brooks Kriske pitches to Garrett Stubbs

    ·

    ATH 12·PHI 1

Team stats

ATH

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

12

Runs

1

13

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

28

TB

9

4

HR

1

5

BB

1

7

K

9

10

LOB

8

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 9·ATH +114/PHI -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Shea LangeliersATH · C
    SPRINT28.586
  • Felix ReyesPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 80 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    1.1± 1.0high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Tyler SoderstromATH
    1.7± 1.6high
  • Nick KurtzATH
    1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Nick KurtzATH
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Brent RookerATH
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Jacob LopezATH
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Jeffrey SpringsATH
    2.6± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    55.2%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.5%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.6%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.15 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.