MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

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BOT 6TH+4CLE

CLE

19-19

17-20

Live · model leanBot 6thPolls every 30s

69.6%

CLE wins · current

Pre-game: 50.9% KC

CLE 5 · 1 KC

CLE +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsKC leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingCLEBottom 3rd Inning · 4-0
+9pp→ 85% WP
Pasquantino · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Witt Jr. out at second.
SwingCLETop 3rd Inning · 4-0
+8pp→ 83% WP
Halpin · singled to center, Schneemann scored, Rocchio to second.
SwingCLEBottom 1st Inning · 3-0
+8pp→ 73% WP
Caglianone · grounded out to first.
SwingKCBottom 1st Inning · 3-0
+9pp→ 40% WP
Garcia · doubled to center.
Lead flipCLETop 1st Inning · 2-0
+15pp→ 62% WP
Manzardo · doubled to center, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.24

S. Cecconi

1-4 · 6.56 ERA

S. Lugo

1-1 · 2.68 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.7%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
50.9%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
55.4%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.92 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

76% confidence

Win prob · home

1.0%

-49.9ppvs pre-game · CLE favored

Leverage

low

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 60 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.5± 3.5low
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.7low
Kris BubicKC
6.0± 4.0low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.5± 0.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.1± 0.7high
Maikel GarciaKC
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Chase DeLauterCLE
2.3± 1.8high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.1± 2.2high
Elias DiazKC
1.8± 2.4low

RBIs

Nick LoftinKC
0.8± 2.1low
Chase DeLauterCLE
0.7± 0.9high
Salvador PerezKC
0.7± 0.7high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.7± 3.2low
Noah CameronKC
3.2± 2.5low
Tanner BibeeCLE
2.5± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Thu, May 7

CLE

Guardians

19-19

vs50.9%KC

KC★

Royals

17-20

CLE 49.1%win prob50.9% KC

KC 1498 · CLE 1516Box score→

MLBThu, May 7Bot 6thSeriesKC leads series 2-1VegasKC -1.5 · O/U 9.5

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CLE · KC

CLE

19-19

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
S. Kwan★CF	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	17	.212	.301	.270	0.500
C. DeLauter★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	1	0	18	.309	.394	.553	0.833
J. Ramirez★3B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	2	1	21	.213	.343	.397	1.250
K. Manzardo★1B	1-4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0	17	.202	.276	.288	0.500
D. Schneemann★CF	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	1	1	16	.289	.361	.495	1.167
T. Bazzana★2B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	6	.200	.375	.200	1.000
B. Rocchio★SS	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	2	16	.256	.333	.364	0.667
B. Naylor★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	11	.122	.182	.183	0.000
P. Halpin★CF	1-2	2	1	1	1	0	1	1	15	.182	.250	.182	1.167
Team	8-25	25	5	8	4	0	5	8	137				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
S. Cecconi★SP	5.1	6	1	1	3	3	0	82-45	5.93	82

Team	5.1	7	1	1	3	3	0	86-48		86

17-20

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
M. Garcia★3B	2-3	3	0	2	1	0	0	1	12	.273	.340	.424	1.333
B. Witt Jr.★SS	2-2	2	0	2	0	0	1	0	11	.289	.361	.430	2.000
V. Pasquantino★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	.189	.275	.341	0.000
S. Perez★C	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	.201	.240	.340	0.000
C. Jensen★C	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	14	.227	.317	.409	1.167
J. Caglianone★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	10	.248	.328	.422	0.667
I. Collins★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	11	.242	.356	.374	0.500
M. Massey★2B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	4	.224	.250	.403	1.000
K. Isbel★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	.273	.340	.420	0.000
Team	7-21	21	1	7	1	0	3	3	86				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
S. Lugo★SP	4.0	7	4	4	4	5	0	102-60	3.21	102
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	0	15-8	1.72	15
A. LangeRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	0	20-12	6.35	20
Team	6.0	8	5	5	5	8	0	137-80		137

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

KC leads series 2-1

May 4

CLE2@

KC6

May 5

CLE3@

KC5

May 6

CLE3@

KC1

May 7

CLE@

KCtoday

Season series

Series tied 3-3

Apr 6

KC4@

CLE2

Apr 7

KC1@

CLE2

Apr 8

KC2@

CLE10

May 4

CLE2@

KC6

May 5

CLE3@

KC5

May 6

CLE3@

KC1

May 7

CLE@

KCtoday

Aug 28

KC@

CLEupcoming

Aug 29

KC@

CLEupcoming

Aug 30

KC@

CLEupcoming

Sep 25

CLE@

KCupcoming

Sep 26

CLE@

KCupcoming

Sep 27

CLE@

KCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CLENaN—

KCNaN—

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

CLESP

S. Cecconi

#44 · 1-4

ERA

6.56

—

Last 3 starts

5/2@

ATH5.1 IP · 5 ER · 3 KW(1-4)

4/26@

TOR5.2 IP · 4 ER · 5 KL(0-4)

4/20vs

HOU5.0 IP · 6 ER · 2 KL(0-3)

KCSP

S. Lugo

#67 · 1-1

ERA

2.68

—

Last 3 starts

5/3@

SEA6.0 IP · 2 ER · 6 K-

4/26vs

LAA6.1 IP · 7 ER · 3 K-

4/20vs

BAL7.0 IP · 0 ER · 7 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

CLE7L · 2S

1
S. Kwan
LF · #38
L
2
C. DeLauter
RF · #24
L
3
J. Ramirez
DH · #11
B
4
K. Manzardo
1B · #9
L
5
D. Schneemann
3B · #10
L
6
T. Bazzana
2B · #37
L
7
B. Rocchio
SS · #4
B
8
B. Naylor
C · #23
L
9
P. Halpin
CF · #0
L

KC5L · 3R · 1S

1
M. Garcia
3B · #11
R
2
B. Witt Jr.
SS · #7
R
3
V. Pasquantino
1B · #9
L
4
S. Perez
DH · #13
R
5
C. Jensen
C · #22
L
6
J. Caglianone
RF · #14
L
7
I. Collins
LF · #1
B
8
M. Massey
2B · #19
L
9
K. Isbel
CF · #28
L

Live · top performers so far

Bot 6th

Game flowCLE ↔ KC

Recent swing: 6pp · Bottom 5th Inning

Just happened

Tim Herrin · pitches to Isaac Collins

CLE

J. Ramirez

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1 R · 1.250 OPS

S. Cecconi

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 3 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 4 K · 1 ER

B. Witt Jr.

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2.000 OPS

S. Lugo

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 4 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 9 K · 7 ER

How it's going

CLE lead KC 5-1 (Bot 6th).

Win probability

KC vs CLE

Score progression

0 lead changes

CLE5

KC1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CLETop 1st Inning · 2-0

+15pp→ 62% WP

Manzardo · doubled to center, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.

KCBottom 1st Inning · 3-0

+9pp→ 40% WP

Garcia · doubled to center.

CLEBottom 3rd Inning · 4-0

+9pp→ 85% WP

Pasquantino · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Witt Jr. out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	R
CLE	3	0	1	0	0	1	5
KC	0	0	0	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

CLE won 3 · KC won 1

Inn 1

Manzardo 2

Inn 2

Inn 3

Halpin 1

Inn 4

Inn 5

Garcia 1

Inn 6

DeLauter 1

CLE

Game flow · key plays

B3
Pasquantino grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Witt Jr. out at second.
CLE 4·KC 0
−9pp
T3
Halpin singled to center, Schneemann scored, Rocchio to second.
CLE 4·KC 0
−8pp
B1
Caglianone grounded out to first.
CLE 3·KC 0
−8pp
B1
Garcia doubled to center.
CLE 3·KC 0
+9pp
T1
Schneemann singled to right, Manzardo scored.
CLE 3·KC 0
−8pp
T1
Manzardo doubled to center, Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.
CLE 2·KC 0
−15pp

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 9.5·CLE OFF/KC OFF

DraftKings · via ESPN