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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4PIT
PIT

PIT

14-10

8
4
TEX

TEX

12-12

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
24,289 attended

Line movement

27 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

+2.0+1.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL52.3%44.3%TEX NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PIT wins

PIT 8 · TEX 4 (by 4)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1000300048
TEX0200000204

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 14, 26sim 98
    285
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 97
    1112
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 21, 26sim 97
    116
    12(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 97
    174
    5(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 96
    77
    12(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 96
    236
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Wed, Apr 22·Final/SeriesTEX wins series 2-1/VegasPIT -118

Recap · MLB

Pittsburgh Pirates went into Texas Rangers and beat them, 8–4.

PIT -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Spencer Horwitz

Spencer Horwitz

1B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Andrew McCutchen

Andrew McCutchen

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT14-10
8
4
TEX12-12
PIT14-10·TEX12-12
PIT

PIT

14-10

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-55113103
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
1-55111003
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
2-55121000
SPRINT27.969
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-33011000
SPRINT25.614
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
1-33010010
N. GonzalesN. Gonzales★3B
1-44110000
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT24.85
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-44000002
H. DavisH. Davis★C
0-22100011
J. MangumJ. MangumLF
0-11101000
Team9-3636897129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. AshcraftB. Ashcraft★SP
7.0422251
G. SotoG. SotoRP
1.0322030
D. SantanaD. SantanaRP
1.0000020
Team9.07442101
TEX

TEX

12-12

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.278
C. SeagerC. Seager★SS
0-44000002
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-44012001
SPRINT2744
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-11100020
SPRINT25.716
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-44122101
SPRINT25.920
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-44010002
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
1-44010001
J. SmithJ. Smith★2B
0-22000000
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
0-33000001
S. HaggertyS. HaggertyLF
0-11000001
A. McCutchenA. McCutchenDH
1-11110000
SPRINT27.662
Team7-32324741210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
5.0543250
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
2.0100020
G. CollyerG. CollyerRP
1.0000000
C. WinnC. WinnRP
0.1233010
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
0.2111011
Team9.0987291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

TEX

  • G. Collyer
    15 pitches·13% CSW
    • SI
      47%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·92.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      13%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Beeks
    13 pitches·62% CSW
    • FF
      69%·93.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      23%·87.6 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      8%·83.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

7

8

Runs

4

0

Errors

2

Current series

TEX wins series 2-1

Apr 22PITPIT1@TEXTEX5
Apr 23PITPIT8@TEXTEX4today
Apr 24PITPIT1@TEXTEX6

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 22PITPIT1@TEXTEX5
Apr 23PITPIT8@TEXTEX4today
Apr 24PITPIT1@TEXTEX6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT-11854%
TEXTEX-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 8th Inning

PITPIT
O. Cruz

O. Cruz

CF

Batter of the game

1-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.000 OPS

B. Ashcraft

B. Ashcraft

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

TEXTEX
A. McCutchen

A. McCutchen

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PIT beat TEX 8-4. Burger's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TEX vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 5th Inning · 4-2
+25pp→ 76% WP

Reynolds · singled to right, Davis scored on error and Lowe scored on throwing error by right fielder Nimmo, Reynolds to second.

TEXBottom 8th Inning · 4-4
+36pp→ 58% WP

Burger · singled to center, McCutchen scored and Nimmo scored.

PITTop 9th Inning · 4-4
+23pp→ 78% WP

Horwitz · singled to right, Gonzales to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1000300048
TEX0200000204

Period scoring

PIT won 3 · TEX won 2

1
0

Inn 1

Ozuna 1

0
2

Inn 2

Jung 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

3
0

Inn 5

Reynolds 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
2

Inn 8

Burger 2

4
0

Inn 9

Cruz 3

PIT
TEX

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  2. B9

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  3. B9

    Higashioka struck out swinging.

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  9. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Kyle Higashioka

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  10. B9

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  11. B9

    Carter flied out to center.

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  13. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Evan Carter

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  14. B9

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  15. B9

    Jung struck out looking.

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

    −0.9pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  19. B9

    Dennis Santana pitches to Josh Jung

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  20. B9

    Santana relieved Soto

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  21. B9

    Bart catching.

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  22. B9

    Cook in right field.

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  23. B9

    O'Hearn at first base.

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  26. T9

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  27. T9

    Reynolds flied out to right.

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

  30. T9

    Jalen Beeks pitches to Bryan Reynolds

    ·

    PIT 8·TEX 4

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

8

Runs

4

9

Hits

7

0

Errors

2

13

TB

12

1

HR

1

2

BB

2

9

K

10

13

LOB

13

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 7.5·PIT -118/TEX -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Nick GonzalesPIT · 3B
    SPRINT28.586
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TEX vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Konnor GriffinPIT
    1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.9± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Bubba ChandlerPIT
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    55.4%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.0%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.3%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.10 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.