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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1CHC
PIT

PIT

9-6

6
7
CHC

CHC

7-8

Wrigley Field · Chicago, Illinois
35,711 attended

Line movement

12 snapshots

CHC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 12.5

open O/U 12.5

CHC no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0CHC SPREADO/U 13.0O/U 12.0TOTAL59.1%51.1%CHC NO-VIG %MODEL 53.3%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 4 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

PIT 6 · CHC 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
PIT1400100006
CHC0020101217

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesPIT wins series 2-1/VegasCHC -136

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs held off Pittsburgh Pirates, 7–6. It came down to the final possession.

PIT +1.5 cashed (CHC won by 1). Total cleared the 12.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe

2B

2.600OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

5

RBI

CHC · top performer

CHC
Dansby Swanson

Dansby Swanson

SS

2.750OPS

2-1

AB-H

3

R

1

RBI

MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
PIT9-6
6
7
CHC7-8
PIT9-6·CHC7-8
PIT

PIT

9-6

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
O. CruzO. Cruz★CF
1-44111113
SPRINT28.483
B. LoweB. Lowe★2B
2-44225212
SPRINT27.148
B. ReynoldsB. Reynolds★LF
1-44010001
SPRINT27.969
R. O'HearnR. O'Hearn★RF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.735
N. YorkeN. Yorke★3B
0-33000001
M. OzunaM. Ozuna★DH
1-44110001
SPRINT25.614
S. HorwitzS. Horwitz★1B
0-33100012
K. GriffinK. Griffin★SS
0-33100002
J. BartJ. Bart★C
0-44000002
Team7-33336763315
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. ChandlerB. Chandler★SP
5.1533242
H. BarcoH. BarcoRP
1.2111210
J. LawrenceJ. LawrenceRP
1.0121220
J. UrquidyJ. UrquidyRP
0.1311100
Team8.11076772
CHC

CHC

7-8

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
2-55120000
SPRINT28.278
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
2-33121101
SPRINT24.53
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
1-33012010
SPRINT25.818
I. HappI. Happ★LF
0-44000010
S. SuzukiS. Suzuki★RF
0-33100021
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-55021001
SPRINT25.716
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000002
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
1-22311120
SPRINT27.867
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
0-33000002
M. ConfortoM. ConfortoRF
1-11010000
M. BuschM. Busch1B
1-11011000
Team10-34347106277
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. TaillonJ. Taillon★SP
6.06662103
R. MartinR. MartinRP
1.1100020
E. RobertsE. RobertsRP
0.2000010
D. PalenciaD. PalenciaRP
1.0000120
Team9.07663153

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

PIT

  • B. Chandler
    91 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      42%·98.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      22%·91.9 mph·30% whiff
    • SL
      19%·89.8 mph·38% whiff
    • ST
      18%·87.1 mph·20% whiff
  • H. Barco
    32 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      34%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      25%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      19%·84.8 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      16%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      3%·88.8 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      3%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
  • J. Lawrence
    29 pitches·24% CSW
    • ST
      41%·83.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      34%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Urquidy
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      32%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      23%·80.7 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·82.9 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·94.7 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      5%·83.9 mph·— whiff

CHC

  • J. Taillon
    102 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      29%·91.7 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      25%·86.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CU
      16%·78.7 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·84.4 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      13%·80.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Martin
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      53%·94.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      32%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·85.3 mph·— whiff
  • D. Palencia
    16 pitches·50% CSW
    • FF
      75%·98.8 mph·75% whiff
    • FS
      25%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
  • E. Roberts
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • FC
      54%·93.9 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      31%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·94.6 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

10

6

Runs

7

1

Errors

0

Current series

PIT wins series 2-1

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7today

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

Apr 10PITPIT2@CHCCHC0
Apr 11PITPIT4@CHCCHC3
Apr 12PITPIT6@CHCCHC7today
May 25CHCCHC1@PITPIT2
May 26CHCCHC1@PITPIT12
May 27CHCCHC10@PITPIT4
May 28CHCCHC7@PITPIT2
Jul 24CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 25CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Jul 26CHCCHC@PITPITupcoming
Sep 11PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 12PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming
Sep 13PITPIT@CHCCHCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

12.5

High-scoring · +4.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+11347%
CHCCHC-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

12.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPIT ↔ CHC

Biggest swing: 44pp · Bottom 8th Inning

PITPIT
B. Lowe

B. Lowe

2B

Batter of the game2-HR game

2-for-4 · 2 HR · 2.600 OPS

B. Chandler

B. Chandler

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

CHCCHC
D. Swanson

D. Swanson

SS

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.750 OPS

J. Taillon

J. Taillon

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

6.0 IP · 10 K · 6 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

CHC beat PIT 7-6. Busch's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (44pp).

Win probability

CHC vs PIT

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PITTop 2nd Inning · 5-0
+26pp→ 89% WP

Lowe · homered to right center (372 feet), Ozuna scored, Horwitz scored and Griffin scored.

CHCBottom 8th Inning · 6-6
+44pp→ 60% WP

Busch · singled to left, Suzuki scored on error and Swanson scored on throwing error by left fielder Reynolds, Busch to second.

CHCBottom 9th Inning · 6-6
+29pp→ 83% WP

Conforto · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
PIT1400100006
CHC0020101217

Period scoring

PIT won 2 · CHC won 4

1
0

Inn 1

4
0

Inn 2

Lowe 4

0
2

Inn 3

Swanson 1

0
0

Inn 4

1
1

Inn 5

Lowe 1

Bregman 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
1

Inn 7

Bregman 1

0
2

Inn 8

Busch 2

0
1

Inn 9

Kelly 1

PIT
CHC

Play-by-play · 619 plays

period
event
player
  1. B9

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 7

  2. B9

    Kelly singled to center, Kingery scored, Suzuki to second, Happ to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 7

    +18pp

  3. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 7

  4. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  6. B9

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Carson Kelly

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 7

  7. B9

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  8. B9

    Suzuki walked, Happ to second.

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  9. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  16. B9

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Seiya Suzuki

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  17. B9

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  18. B9

    Happ grounded into fielder's choice to first, Bregman out at second, Kingery to third.

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  19. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  20. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  21. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  22. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  23. B9

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Ian Happ

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  24. B9

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  25. B9

    Bregman reached on infield single to shortstop.

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

    −1pp

  26. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

  30. B9

    Jose Urquidy pitches to Alex Bregman

    · ·

    PIT 6·CHC 6

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

CHC

Home

6

Runs

7

7

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

16

TB

19

3

HR

2

3

BB

7

15

K

7

16

LOB

17

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 12.5·PIT +113/CHC -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 5, 26sim 98
    258
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 97
    66
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 16, 26sim 97
    139
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 97
    1112
    22(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 96
    238
    13(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 96
    285
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

CHC vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Braxton AshcraftPIT
    6.6± 2.1low
  • Paul SkenesPIT
    6.6± 3.3low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    5.8± 4.7low

Hits

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    1.2± 0.9high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    2.1± 2.0high
  • Ian HappCHC
    2.0± 2.6high
  • Brandon LowePIT
    2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

  • Ian HappCHC
    0.9± 1.7high
  • Bryan ReynoldsPIT
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Michael BuschCHC
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.9± 4.0low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    54.4%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.8%

    P(CHC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.0%

    P(CHC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.25 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Billy CookPIT · RF
    SPRINT28.992
  • Oneil CruzPIT · CF
    SPRINT28.483
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278