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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4KC
CLE

CLE

18-18

2
6
KC

KC

16-19

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
16,434 attended

Line movement

99 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 8.5 · +0.5

KC no-vig %

51.7%

open 53.2% · -1.5

+2.0-2.0KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.0TOTAL57.2%47.1%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 48.5%May 3, 5 PMMay 23, 1 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CLE 2 · KC 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CLE0200000002
KC000401106

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 3, 26sim 99
    51
    11(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 98
    251
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 97
    176
    30(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 5, 26sim 97
    53
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 6, 26sim 97
    113
    22(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 97
    242
    11(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.48

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Gavin WilliamsCLE
    7.2± 3.6low
  • Parker MessickCLE
    6.4± 2.1low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    1.1± 0.9high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Brayan RocchioCLE
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Travis BazzanaCLE
    2.0± 2.1high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Kyle ManzardoCLE
    1.6± 2.5high

RBIs

  • Angel MartinezCLE
    0.5± 0.5high
  • Jose RamirezCLE
    0.5± 0.7high
  • Rhys HoskinsCLE
    0.5± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Slade CecconiCLE
    3.0± 2.5low
  • Tanner BibeeCLE
    2.7± 3.7low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.5%

ensemble · CLE favored

  • Elo Static

    50.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    53.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.8%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.06 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

MLB·Mon, May 4·Final/Seriestied 2-2/VegasKC -118

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Cleveland Guardians, 6–2.

KC +1.5 cashed (CLE lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CLE · top performer

CLE
David Fry

David Fry

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Cleveland Guardians at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CLE18-18
2
6
KC16-19
CLE18-18·KC16-19
CLE

CLE

18-18

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
S. KwanS. Kwan★CF
0-44000000
SPRINT26.530
D. SchneemannD. Schneemann★CF
0-44000001
J. RamirezJ. Ramirez★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.251
R. HoskinsR. Hoskins★1B
0-44000000
T. BazzanaT. Bazzana★2B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.662
D. FryD. Fry★RF
2-33122100
SPRINT25.716
A. MartinezA. Martinez★LF
1-22010010
SPRINT27.765
B. NaylorB. Naylor★C
0-33000000
B. RocchioB. Rocchio★SS
0-33000001
Team5-3131252113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. BibeeT. Bibee★SP
4.0544241
M. FestaM. FestaRP
1.2111111
C. BrogdonC. BrogdonRP
1.1110010
P. PalletteP. PalletteRP
1.0000110
Team8.0765472
KC

KC

16-19

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-44000000
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44211101
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-44121001
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-44111000
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-44110001
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
0-33000011
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-33111111
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-22000022
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
1-44012000
SPRINT2872
Team7-3232676247
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
7.0422131
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
1.0000000
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0100000
Team9.0522131

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CLE

  • T. Bibee
    77 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      29%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      25%·86.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      17%·82.4 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      16%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      14%·78.4 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Festa
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • ST
      50%·82.8 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      36%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      7%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Brogdon
    24 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      42%·84.4 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      33%·94.8 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      13%·79.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Pallette
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      33%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·84.8 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    79 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      39%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·80.1 mph·14% whiff
    • FC
      18%·89.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·76.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      4%·85.8 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Lange
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • SI
      56%·95.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      22%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.7 mph·50% whiff
  • M. Strahm
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      29%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·86.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·92.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

7

2

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

Series tied 2-2

May 4CLECLE2@KCKC6today
May 5CLECLE3@KCKC5
May 6CLECLE3@KCKC1
May 7CLECLE8@KCKC5

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 6KCKC4@CLECLE2
Apr 7KCKC1@CLECLE2
Apr 8KCKC2@CLECLE10
May 4CLECLE2@KCKC6today
May 5CLECLE3@KCKC5
May 6CLECLE3@KCKC1
May 7CLECLE8@KCKC5
Aug 28KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 29KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Aug 30KCKC@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 25CLECLE@KCKCupcoming
Sep 26CLECLE@KCKCupcoming
Sep 27CLECLE@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CLECLE-10250%
KCKC-11854%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCLE ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 22pp · Bottom 4th Inning

CLECLE
D. Fry

D. Fry

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

T. Bibee

T. Bibee

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

7.0 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

KC beat CLE 6-2. Loftin's play in the bottom 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (22pp).

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CLETop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+20pp→ 65% WP

Fry · homered to left center (406 feet), Bazzana scored.

KCBottom 4th Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 45% WP

Witt Jr. · homered to left (422 feet).

KCBottom 4th Inning · 2-4
+22pp→ 82% WP

Loftin · singled to left, Jensen scored and Perez scored, Thomas to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CLE0200000002
KC00040110—6

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

KC

Home

2

Runs

6

5

Hits

7

1

Errors

0

9

TB

14

1

HR

2

1

BB

4

3

K

7

5

LOB

15

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 9·CLE -102/KC -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 99 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

+0.5 since open

Win probability

KC vs CLE

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

CLE won 1 · KC won 3

0
0

Inn 1

2
0

Inn 2

Fry 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
4

Inn 4

Loftin 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
1

Inn 6

Caglianone 1

0
1

Inn 7

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 8

0

Inn 9

CLE
KC

Play-by-play · 493 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  2. T9

    Bazzana grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  3. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  4. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  5. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  6. T9

    Alex Lange pitches to Travis Bazzana

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  7. T9

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  8. T9

    Hoskins grounded into double play, third to second to first, Ramírez out at second.

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

    +3pp

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  13. T9

    Alex Lange pitches to Rhys Hoskins

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  14. T9

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  15. T9

    Ramírez singled to right.

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

    −2pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  18. T9

    Alex Lange pitches to Jose Ramirez

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  19. T9

    Lange relieved Strahm

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  20. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    CLE 2·KC 6

  21. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    CLE 2·KC 6

  22. B8

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  23. B8

    Loftin fouled out to catcher.

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  24. B8

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  25. B8

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  26. B8

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  27. B8

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  28. B8

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  29. B8

    Peyton Pallette pitches to Nick Loftin

    · ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

  30. B8

    ·

    CLE 2·KC 6

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688