Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at KC?

The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — May 5, 2026

FINAL+2KC

CLE

18-19

17-19

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

13,102 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

KC no-vig %

47.8%

open 46.8% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.5%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.8%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.6%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.24 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.04

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CLE at KC?: The model favors KC, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.5± 2.7medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.1± 2.1medium
Noah CameronKC
5.2± 2.9low

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.4± 1.1high
Carter JensenKC
1.3± 1.0high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Carter JensenKC
2.3± 2.3high
John RaveKC
2.3± 4.5low
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.1± 2.6high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.9high
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high
Travis BazzanaCLE
0.6± 1.6high

Earned runs

Gavin WilliamsCLE
3.0± 2.9medium
Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.0medium
Seth LugoKC
2.8± 2.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

.683

OPS

.719

▶

.716

.313

OBP

.319

▶

.321

3.97

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.24

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.19

4.58

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

CLE 3 · KC 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked KC +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
KC	2	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.211	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. DeLauterRF	.302	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Ramirez3B	.212	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
K. Manzardo1B	.202	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.207	3	1	1	3	1	1	0
D. SchneemannCF	.283	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. Bazzana2B	.174	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.271	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.127	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. FryRF	.262	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	3	4	3	1	2	5

Player

.211

.302

.212

.202

.207

.283

.174

.271

.127

.262

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	6.0	8	5	5	2	7	97
C. HoldermanRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	26
Team	8.0	8	5	5	2	10	123

Player

G. WilliamsSP

6.0

C. HoldermanRP

2.0

Team

8.0

123

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.256	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.287	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.192	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. PerezC	.209	4	0	1	2	0	0	2
C. JensenC	.222	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. CaglianoneRF	.248	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. CollinsLF	.255	3	2	3	1	1	0	0
M. Massey2B	.215	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.282	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	5	8	5	2	2	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KolekSP	6.0	4	3	3	0	3	83
N. MearsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
L. ErcegRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	15
Team	9.0	4	3	3	2	5	120

Team

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

KC vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

KC vs CLE.

3 sub-models, blended.