MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

TUE, 7:40 PM EDT

CLE

18-18

16-19

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

G. Williams

5-1 · 2.70 ERA

S. Kolek

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Gavin Williams

SP · #32

5-1

W-L

2.70

ERA

1.02

WHIP

43.1

Last 3 starts

vsTBW(5-1)7.2 IP0 ER9 K

@TORW(4-1)6.0 IP6 ER4 K

vsBALW(3-1)7.0 IP1 ER11 K

Home starter

Stephen Kolek

SP · #32

—

W-L

—

ERA

—

WHIP

—

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 7.5

Money-115 / -105

Model edge

Win prob49% / 51%

LeanTossup

ConfidenceTossup

Head to head

SeriesKC leads series 1-0

TypeCurrent Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

-115Bet CLE ML↗-115Bet CLE ML↗

-105Bet KC ML↗-105Bet KC ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 7.5Bet the total↗O/U 7.5Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

CLE

1.S. KwanCF
2.C. DeLauterRF
3.J. Ramirez3B
4.K. Manzardo1B
5.R. HoskinsDH
6.D. SchneemannSS
7.T. Bazzana2B
8.A. MartinezLF
9.B. NaylorC

1.M. Garcia3B
2.B. Witt Jr.SS
3.V. Pasquantino1B
4.S. PerezDH
5.C. JensenC
6.J. CaglianoneRF
7.I. CollinsLF
8.M. Massey2B
9.K. IsbelCF

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

KC no-vig %

47.8%

open 46.8% · +1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketLean

DraftKings · snapped just now

+2.1ppon

CLEWin prob axisKC

Market 49%

Model 51%

0%50%100%

ModelKC 51%Pre-game prob

MarketKC 49%No-vig · 4.7% hold

Edge+2.1ppModel finds value

CLE -115/

KC -105

-105Bet KC ML↗-105Bet KC ML↗

Scouting report · pre-game

KC vs CLE.

KC enters on a 4-game win streak; CLE is 4-6 over its last 10.

51.0%

model · KC win prob

Recent form

KC8–2+2.2
CLE4–6-0.1

Situational

KC1d restB2B
CLE1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. KC has 0 straight road games; CLE has 4.

Model angle

+2.1ppon KC

KC's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp
▲Venue split+1.4pp
▲Travel burden+1.4pp

Players to watch

Chase DeLauterCLE
2.2total bases · ±1.9
Chase DeLauter · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.9.
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.2total bases · ±2.1
Bobby Witt Jr. · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 1.7.
Vinnie PasquantinoKC
1.9total bases · ±2.1
Vinnie Pasquantino · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.3.

Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4

KC is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-04-06KC @ CLE4–2
2026-04-07KC @ CLE1–2
2026-04-08KC @ CLE2–10
2026-05-04CLE @ KC2–6

Line move

open +104→+100toward KC

The market has moved 1pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.6%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
51.0%
P(KC win)
45%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
51.0%
P(KC win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(KC win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

The receipts

Why we like KC.

KC's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+2.1

pp edge · KC

+1.04

CLV pp

Pass

50.3%

±6.5pp band

Pass — negative expected value (-0.9pp edge).

Edge

+1.4pp

−0.7pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

1.95

-0.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.1pp · KC over CLE

▲
Venue split66% conf
KC's venue form is 22.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.4pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
CLE is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.4pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
KC sits near the model-market noise floor.
-1.0pp
▲
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 1pp toward KC since open.
+0.5pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
CLE has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.3pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Market came to the model

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.6± 3.7low
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.7low
Kris BubicKC
6.0± 4.0low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.4± 1.1high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.6high
Angel MartinezCLE
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Elias DiazKC
2.3± 2.3low
Chase DeLauterCLE
2.2± 1.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

Elias DiazKC
0.8± 1.3low
Nick LoftinKC
0.8± 2.1low
Angel MartinezCLE
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.7± 3.2low
Noah CameronKC
3.2± 2.5low
Cole RagansKC
2.7± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelTossup

Tue, May 5

CLE

Guardians

18-18

vs51%KC

KC★

Royals

16-19

CLE 49%win prob51% KC

KC 1499 · CLE 1516Box score→

MLBTue, May 55/5 - 7:40 PM EDTSeriesKC leads series 1-0VegasCLE -115

Preview · MLB

leveland Guardians visit Kansas City Royals Tuesday at 5/5 - 7:40 PM EDT. KC arrives on a 4-game win streak (9-3 in their last 12).

Vegas opened CLE as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 7.5. KC's moneyline implies a 51% break-even, CLE the inverse. KC is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the CLE side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 7.5 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CLE · KC

CLE

18-18

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
S. Kwan★CF	28-129	9	1	0.457
C. DeLauter★RF	34-112	21	6	0.768
J. Ramirez★3B	29-133	14	6	0.571
K. Manzardo★1B	19-95	10	2	0.463
R. Hoskins★1B	16-79	10	2	0.481
D. Schneemann★CF	25-88	14	4	0.705
T. Bazzana★2B	4-20	2	0	0.400
A. Martinez★LF	29-104	16	5	0.702
B. Naylor★C	10-77	4	1	0.299
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
G. Williams★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

16-19

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
M. Garcia★3B	34-130	13	3	0.592
B. Witt Jr.★SS	39-139	16	3	0.626
V. Pasquantino★1B	24-121	17	4	0.496
S. Perez★C	28-135	14	5	0.526
C. Jensen★C	24-104	17	6	0.635
J. Caglianone★RF	26-101	8	4	0.634
I. Collins★LF	21-91	11	2	0.527
M. Massey★2B	12-62	7	1	0.435
K. Isbel★CF	24-83	8	3	0.687
Team	-----	--	--	—

Player	IP	H	ER	K
S. Kolek★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Current series

KC leads series 1-0

May 4

CLE2@

KC6

May 5

CLE@

KCtoday

May 6

CLE@

KCupcoming

May 7

CLE@

KCupcoming

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 6

KC4@

CLE2

Apr 7

KC1@

CLE2

Apr 8

KC2@

CLE10

May 4

CLE2@

KC6

May 5

CLE@

KCtoday

May 6

CLE@

KCupcoming

May 7

CLE@

KCupcoming

Aug 28

KC@

CLEupcoming

Aug 29

KC@

CLEupcoming

Aug 30

KC@

CLEupcoming

Sep 25

CLE@

KCupcoming

Sep 26

CLE@

KCupcoming

Sep 27

CLE@

KCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

CLE-11553%

KC-10551%

2· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

CLESP

G. Williams

#32 · 5-1

ERA

2.70

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vs

TB7.2 IP · 0 ER · 9 KW(5-1)

4/24@

TOR6.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 KW(4-1)

4/18vs

BAL7.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 KW(3-1)

KCSP

S. Kolek

#32 · —

ERA

—

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

CLE6L · 1R · 2S

1
S. Kwan
CF
L
2
C. DeLauter
RF
L
3
J. Ramirez
3B
B
4
K. Manzardo
1B
L
5
R. Hoskins
DH
R
6
D. Schneemann
SS
L
7
T. Bazzana
2B
L
8
A. Martinez
LF
B
9
B. Naylor
C
L

KC5L · 3R · 1S

1
M. Garcia
3B
R
2
B. Witt Jr.
SS
R
3
V. Pasquantino
1B
L
4
S. Perez
DH
R
5
C. Jensen
C
L
6
J. Caglianone
RF
L
7
I. Collins
LF
B
8
M. Massey
2B
L
9
K. Isbel
CF
L

Scouting report

CLE @ KC

5/5 - 7:40 PM EDT

StorylineKC on a 4-game roll.

Rest going in

CLEB2B

0 days

last game May 4

KCB2B

0 days

last game May 4

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

CLE -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

7.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

CLE -115

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

CLEmetricKC

18-18

Record

16-19

Conf rank

#10

-0.2

Pt diff

-0.3

Streak

4-6

Last 10

8-2

Bullpen used yesterday

CLE

4.0 bullpen IP · heavy

M. Festa1.2 IP28 P
C. Brogdon1.1 IP24 P
P. Pallette1.0 IP21 P

L 6-2 · May 4

2.0 bullpen IP

M. Strahm1.0 IP7 P
A. Lange1.0 IP9 P

W 6-2 · May 4

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

Home

275

Hits

279

Errors

148

Runs

146

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 7.5·CLE -115/KC -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

KC vs CLE.

125

projections · 57 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
7.6± 3.7low
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.7low
Kris BubicKC
6.0± 4.0low

Hits

Chase DeLauterCLE
1.4± 1.1high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.6high
Angel MartinezCLE
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Elias DiazKC
2.3± 2.3low
Chase DeLauterCLE
2.2± 1.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.2± 2.1high

RBIs

Elias DiazKC
0.8± 1.3low
Nick LoftinKC
0.8± 2.1low
Angel MartinezCLE
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Slade CecconiCLE
3.7± 3.2low
Noah CameronKC
3.2± 2.5low
Cole RagansKC
2.7± 3.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

51.6%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
51.0%
P(KC win)
45%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
51.0%
P(KC win)
11%
weight
Bullpen Park
52.4%
P(KC win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.70 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Scouting report · pre-game

KC vs CLE.

KC enters on a 4-game win streak; CLE is 4-6 over its last 10.

51.0%

model · KC win prob

Recent form

KC8–2+2.2
CLE4–6-0.1

Situational

KC1d restB2B
CLE1d restB2B
+0.0d differential

Rest is even. KC has 0 straight road games; CLE has 4.

Model angle

+2.1ppon KC

KC's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag. Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.

▲Weather + park+0.1pp
▲Venue split+1.4pp
▲Travel burden+1.4pp

Players to watch

Chase DeLauterCLE
2.2total bases · ±1.9
Chase DeLauter · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.9.
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
2.2total bases · ±2.1
Bobby Witt Jr. · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 1.7.
Vinnie PasquantinoKC
1.9total bases · ±2.1
Vinnie Pasquantino · 1.9 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.3.

Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4

KC is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.

2026-04-06KC @ CLE4–2
2026-04-07KC @ CLE1–2
2026-04-08KC @ CLE2–10
2026-05-04CLE @ KC2–6

Line move

open +104→+100toward KC

The market has moved 1pp toward the home side.

Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes

The receipts

Why we like KC.

KC's edge is mostly venue split plus travel burden. Model confidence is the main caution flag.

+2.1

pp edge · KC

+1.04

CLV pp

Pass

50.3%

±6.5pp band

Pass — negative expected value (-0.9pp edge).

Edge

+1.4pp

−0.7pp post-cal

Kelly

—

no stake

Decimal

1.95

-0.9pp vs price

Contributor breakdown · sums to 2.1pp · KC over CLE

▲
Venue split66% conf
KC's venue form is 22.5pp stronger in the recent sample.
+1.4pp
▲
Travel burden58% conf
CLE is carrying the heavier road load into this matchup.
+1.4pp
▼
Model confidence68% conf
KC sits near the model-market noise floor.
-1.0pp
▲
Line steam67% conf
The market moved 1pp toward KC since open.
+0.5pp
▼
Head to head48% conf
CLE has controlled the recent head-to-head sample.
-0.3pp

Open price

+104

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Market came to the model