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Matchup orbital

CLE

0

CLE

CLE

18-16

Bot 2nd

Win prob

50/50

AWAY · HOME

ATH

1

ATH

ATH

17-16

Live · model leanBot 2ndPolls every 30s

56.1%

ATH wins · current

Pre-game: 50.5% ATH

CLE 0 · 1 ATH

ATH +1

Sutter Health Park · Sacramento, California

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 4.96

P. Messick

3-0 · 1.73 ERA

vs

A. Civale

2-1 · 3.23 ERA

Line movement

47 snapshots

ATH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

ATH implied %

47.8%

open 50.0% · -2.2

+2.0+1.0ATH SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL54.5%43.8%ATH IMPLIED %MODEL 50.5%May 2, 5 PMMay 3, 4 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = ATH favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

The One modelTossup
Sun, May 3
CLE

CLE

Guardians

18-16

vs50%ATH

ATH★

Athletics

17-16

ATH
CLE 50%win prob50% ATH
ATH 1505 · CLE 1526Box score→

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

56%Last 7 · 62-49
55%Last 30 · 233-194
Receipts →
← Back to MLB
MLBGame · Sun, May 3Bot 2nd
CLE

CLE18-16

CLE

@

17-16ATH

ATH

ATH
SeriesCLE leads series 2-0/VegasCLE -126
Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 7 over 6h34m ago
● LIVEBottom 2nd
Updated 0s ago
CLE
CLE18-160
0:00
ATH
ATH17-161

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

CLE · ATH

CLE

CLE

18-16

0
S. Kwan

S. Kwan★

CF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

C. DeLauter

C. DeLauter★

RF

OPS

2.000

H-AB

1-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

J. Ramirez

J. Ramirez★

3B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

K. Manzardo

K. Manzardo★

1B

OPS

2.000

H-AB

1-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

D. Schneemann

D. Schneemann★

CF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

T. Bazzana

T. Bazzana★

2B

OPS

2.000

H-AB

1-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

P. Halpin

P. Halpin★

CF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Hedges

A. Hedges★

C

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

B. Rocchio

B. Rocchio★

SS

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

3-9

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
S. Kwan
S. Kwan★CF
0-10000.000
C. DeLauter
C. DeLauter★RF
1-10002.000
J. Ramirez
J. Ramirez★3B
0-10000.000
K. Manzardo
K. Manzardo★1B
1-10002.000
D. Schneemann
D. Schneemann★CF
0-10000.000
T. Bazzana
T. Bazzana★2B
1-10002.000
P. Halpin
P. Halpin★CF
0-10000.000
A. Hedges
A. Hedges★C
0-10000.000
B. Rocchio
B. Rocchio★SS
0-10000.000
Team3-9000—
P. Messick

P. Messick★

SP

IP

1.2

H

1

ER

1

K

3

Team total

IP

1.2

H

1

ER

1

K

3

PlayerIPHERK
P. Messick
P. Messick★SP
1.2113
Team1.2113
ATH

ATH

17-16

1
J. Wilson

J. Wilson★

SS

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

B. Rooker

B. Rooker★

RF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

N. Kurtz

N. Kurtz★

1B

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

C. Thomas

C. Thomas★

RF

OPS

5.000

H-AB

1-1

R

1

RBI

1

HR

1

Z. Gelof

Z. Gelof★

CF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

T. Soderstrom

T. Soderstrom★

LF

OPS

0.000

H-AB

0-1

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

A. Wynns

A. Wynns★

C

OPS

—

H-AB

0-0

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

D. Hernaiz

D. Hernaiz★

3B

OPS

—

H-AB

0-0

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

J. McNeil

J. McNeil★

2B

OPS

—

H-AB

0-0

R

0

RBI

0

HR

0

Team total

H-AB

1-6

R

1

RBI

1

HR

1

PlayerH-ABRRBIHROPS
J. Wilson
J. Wilson★SS
0-10000.000
B. Rooker
B. Rooker★RF
0-10000.000
N. Kurtz
N. Kurtz★1B
0-10000.000
C. Thomas
C. Thomas★RF
1-11115.000
Z. Gelof
Z. Gelof★CF
0-10000.000
T. Soderstrom
T. Soderstrom★LF
0-10000.000
A. Wynns
A. Wynns★C
0-0000—
D. Hernaiz
D. Hernaiz★3B
0-0000—
J. McNeil
J. McNeil★2B
0-0000—
Team1-6111—
A. Civale

A. Civale★

SP

IP

2.0

H

3

ER

0

K

2

Team total

IP

2.0

H

3

ER

0

K

2

PlayerIPHERK
A. Civale
A. Civale★SP
2.0302
Team2.0302

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

3

Hits

1

0

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

CLE leads series 2-0

May 2CLECLE8@ATHATH5
May 2CLECLE14@ATHATH6
May 3CLECLE@ATHATHtoday

Season series

CLE leads series 2-0

May 2CLECLE8@ATHATH5
May 2CLECLE14@ATHATH6
May 3CLECLE@ATHATHtoday
Sep 18ATHATH@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 19ATHATH@CLECLEupcoming
Sep 20ATHATH@CLECLEupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CLE -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6h

Moneyline

CLECLE-12656%
ATHATH+10449%

↗7· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗SpreadBet CLE -1.5↗

Line movement · 47 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
CLECLESP
P. Messick

P. Messick

#77 · 3-0

ERA

1.73

K

38

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/27vsTBTB5.2 IP · 1 ER · 9 K-
4/21vsHOUHOU5.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 K-
4/16vsBALBAL8.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 KW(3-0)
VS
ATHATHSP
A. Civale

A. Civale

#45 · 2-1

ERA

3.23

K

24

SV

—

Last 3 starts

4/29vsKCKC5.0 IP · 0 ER · 3 K-
4/22@SEASEA5.1 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-
4/18vsCHWCHW4.2 IP · 5 ER · 4 KL(2-1)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
CLECLE6L · 1R · 2S
  1. 1

    S. Kwan

    LF · #38

    L
  2. 2

    C. DeLauter

    RF · #24

    L
  3. 3

    J. Ramirez

    DH · #11

    B
  4. 4

    K. Manzardo

    1B · #9

    L
  5. 5

    D. Schneemann

    3B · #10

    L
  6. 6

    T. Bazzana

    2B · #37

    L
  7. 7

    P. Halpin

    CF · #0

    L
  8. 8

    A. Hedges

    C · #27

    R
  9. 9

    B. Rocchio

    SS · #4

    B
ATHATH3L · 6R
  1. 1

    J. Wilson

    SS · #5

    R
  2. 2

    B. Rooker

    DH · #25

    R
  3. 3

    N. Kurtz

    1B · #16

    L
  4. 4

    C. Thomas

    RF · #32

    R
  5. 5

    Z. Gelof

    CF · #20

    R
  6. 6

    T. Soderstrom

    LF · #21

    L
  7. 7

    A. Wynns

    C · #29

    R
  8. 8

    D. Hernaiz

    3B · #2

    R
  9. 9

    J. McNeil

    2B · #22

    L

Live · top performers so far

Bot 2nd
Game flowCLE ↔ ATH

Recent swing: 14pp · Bottom 2nd Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 1 : Ball 1

CLECLE
C. DeLauter

C. DeLauter

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

P. Messick

P. Messick

SP

Starting pitcher

1.2 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 1 H

ATHATH
C. Thomas

C. Thomas

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 HR · 5.000 OPS

A. Civale

A. Civale

SP

Starting pitcher

2.0 IP · 2 K · 0 ER · 3 H

On pace: 7 IP · 7 K · 0 ER

How it's going

ATH lead CLE 1-0 (Bot 2nd).

Win probability

ATH vs CLE

0255075100I2

Score progression

0 lead changes

T2
CLE0
ATH1

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ATHBottom 2nd Inning · 0-1
+14pp→ 60% WP

Thomas · homered to left center (400 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team12R
CLE000
ATH011

Period scoring

CLE won 0 · ATH won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
1

Inn 2

Thomas 1

CLE
ATH

Game flow · key plays

  1. B2

    Thomas homered to left center (400 feet).

    CLE 0·ATH 1

    +14pp

  2. T2

    Hedges grounded out to second, Bazzana to third.

    CLE 0·ATH 0

    +3pp

  3. T2

    Bazzana singled to center.

    CLE 0·ATH 0

    −3pp

  4. T1

    Schneemann struck out looking.

    CLE 0·ATH 0

    +4pp

  5. T1

    Ramírez flied out to left.

    CLE 0·ATH 0

    +3pp

  6. T1

    DeLauter singled to right.

    CLE 0·ATH 0

    −3pp

Team stats

CLE

Away

Stat

ATH

Home

3

Hits

1

0

Errors

0

0

Runs

1

Betting line

CLE -1.5·O/U 9·CLE -126/ATH +104

DraftKings · via ESPN