Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at CHW?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Washington Nationals vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 25, 2026

FINAL+3WSH

WSH

12-16

CHW

11-16

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

35,174 attended

Line movement

42 snapshots

CHW spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

CHW no-vig %

56.3%

open 56.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.7%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
52.2%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.5%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.4%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.36 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+119

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at CHW?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

CHW vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Davis MartinCHW
6.0± 2.8medium
Sean BurkeCHW
5.8± 1.8medium
Foster GriffinWSH
5.8± 2.3medium

Hits

Nasim NunezWSH
1.2± 0.7high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.1± 0.7high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

CJ AbramsWSH
2.1± 2.0high
James WoodWSH
2.1± 2.3high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
1.9± 3.1high

RBIs

Dylan CrewsWSH
0.8± 0.8high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.7± 1.2high
Colson MontgomeryCHW
0.7± 1.3high

Earned runs

Miles MikolasWSH
2.5± 2.5medium
Zack LittellWSH
2.5± 1.9medium
Erick FeddeCHW
2.4± 2.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

CHW

.744

OPS

◀

.718

.729

.321

OBP

.319

5.32

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.66

4.59

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.42

1.38

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.34

7.7

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 6 · CHW 3 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CHW +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
WSH	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	4	6
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	3

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.241	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. Mead1B	.189	3	1	0	0	0	2	2
A. Chaparro1B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. House3B	.242	3	1	1	0	0	2	2
D. LileLF	.288	3	2	0	0	0	2	1
J. YoungCF	.241	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
J. WiemerRF	.320	4	0	0	1	0	1	3
N. Nunez2B	.195	4	0	2	4	0	1	2
K. RuizC	.200	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.264	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Vivas3B	.291	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. LordRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.277	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MillasC	.159	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	6	5	0	10	15

Player

.241

.189

.222

.242

.288

.241

.320

.195

.200

.264

.291

.000

.277

.159

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. IrvinSP	5.2	4	0	0	0	9	88
M. ParkerRP	1.1	1	2	2	2	3	23
G. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	8
C. PerezRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	22
B. LordRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	0	18
Team	10.0	7	3	2	4	14	159

Player

5.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

10.0

159

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BenintendiDH	.210	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Murakami1B	.242	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Vargas3B	.213	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
C. MontgomerySS	.232	3	2	0	0	0	0	2
E. PereiraRF	.278	5	0	1	1	0	0	2
S. AntonacciLF	.233	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.266	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
T. PetersCF	.254	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. QueroC	.161	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. MurrayLF	.200	1	0	0	1	0	0	1
D. HillRF	.258	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. AcunaCF	.185	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		35	3	7	3	0	4	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. SchultzSP	6.0	4	2	2	4	8	85
J. HicksRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	19
T. DavisRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	14
G. TaylorRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
J. LeasureRP	0.2	2	4	3	3	2	30
O. BidoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	10.0	6	6	5	10	15	165

Team

WSH

CHW

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CHW vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs WSH.

3 sub-models, blended.