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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7BAL
HOU

HOU

11-20

3
10
BAL

BAL

15-15

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

Line movement

41 snapshots

BAL spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

BAL no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

-1.0-2.0BAL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL59.1%51.1%BAL NO-VIG %MODEL 51.7%May 2, 2 AMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = BAL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

HOU 3 · BAL 10 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BAL +3pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
HOU0000001203
BAL0001405010

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Thu, Apr 30·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasBAL -136

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles held off Houston Astros, 10–3. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total cleared the 9.0 OVER by 4.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

HOU · top performer

HOU
Isaac Paredes

Isaac Paredes

3B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

BAL · top performer

BAL
Adley Rutschman

Adley Rutschman

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

2

R

4

RBI

MLB · Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
HOU11-20
3
10
BAL15-15
HOU11-20·BAL15-15
HOU

HOU

11-20

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. CorreaC. Correa★SS
1-55010001
Y. AlvarezY. Alvarez★DH
0-44000002
I. ParedesI. Paredes★3B
3-44130000
SPRINT25.18
C. WalkerC. Walker★1B
0-44000001
J. AltuveJ. Altuve★2B
1-33110010
SPRINT27.867
Y. DiazY. Diaz★C
1-44011001
SPRINT25.513
B. MatthewsB. Matthews★CF
2-44121002
SPRINT28.278
D. HarrisD. Harris★LF
2-44020000
C. VazquezC. Vazquez★C
2-44021000
SPRINT22.90
D. JohnsonD. JohnsonCF
0-11000000
S. WhitcombS. Whitcomb3B
0-11000000
Team12-38383123017
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
P. LambertP. Lambert★SP
4.1222330
S. OkertS. OkertRP
0.2233101
A. BlubaughA. BlubaughRP
1.0000010
J. AlexanderJ. AlexanderRP
2.0255311
Team8.061010752
BAL

BAL

15-15

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
1-55110001
SPRINT28.175
T. WardT. Ward★LF
0-22200021
SPRINT27.457
A. RutschmanA. Rutschman★C
2-44224100
SPRINT26.632
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
0-22200020
SPRINT25.29
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
0-22101021
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
2-44125100
SPRINT26.530
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
0-44000001
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
0-44000001
B. AlexanderB. Alexander★3B
1-33110010
Team6-303010610275
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
6.2711170
R. GarciaR. GarciaRP
0.1000000
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0320000
J. EspadaJ. EspadaRP
1.0200000
Team9.01231170

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

HOU

  • P. Lambert
    91 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      40%·94.3 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      16%·88.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SV
      16%·81.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      15%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      12%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alexander
    31 pitches·13% CSW
    • CH
      42%·80.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      39%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·79.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FC
      3%·85.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Okert
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • SL
      88%·81.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      13%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Blubaugh
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      46%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      31%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      23%·84.1 mph·67% whiff

BAL

  • C. Bassitt
    94 pitches·35% CSW
    • SI
      44%·91.5 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      23%·70.9 mph·55% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.2 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      13%·72.6 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      2%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Espada
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      53%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      40%·93.8 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      7%·94.0 mph·— whiff
  • A. Nunez
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      38%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      31%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      15%·87.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      15%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Garcia
    2 pitches·50% CSW
    • SL
      100%·87.9 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

6

3

Runs

10

1

Errors

1

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Apr 28HOUHOU3@BALBAL5
Apr 29HOUHOU0@BALBAL0
Apr 30HOUHOU3@BALBAL10today
Apr 30HOUHOU11@BALBAL5

Season series

BAL leads series 2-0

Apr 28HOUHOU3@BALBAL5
Apr 29HOUHOU0@BALBAL0
Apr 30HOUHOU3@BALBAL10today
Apr 30HOUHOU11@BALBAL5
Jul 18BALBAL@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 18BALBAL@HOUHOUupcoming
Jul 19BALBAL@HOUHOUupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

HOUHOU+11347%
BALBAL-13658%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 41 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowHOU ↔ BAL

Biggest swing: 14pp · Bottom 5th Inning

HOUHOU
I. Paredes

I. Paredes

3B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

P. Lambert

P. Lambert

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 2 ER · 2 H · 3 BB

BALBAL
A. Rutschman

A. Rutschman

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 7 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BAL beat HOU 10-3.

Win probability

BAL vs HOU

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALBottom 4th Inning · 0-1
+13pp→ 73% WP

Jackson · doubled to left, Alonso scored.

BALBottom 5th Inning · 0-5
+14pp→ 97% WP

Rutschman · homered to left center (397 feet), Alexander scored, Henderson scored and Ward scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
HOU0000001203
BAL00014050—10

Period scoring

HOU won 1 · BAL won 3

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
1

Inn 4

Jackson 1

0
4

Inn 5

Rutschman 4

0
0

Inn 6

1
5

Inn 7

Jackson 4

2
0

Inn 8

Diaz 1

0

Inn 9

HOU
BAL

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  2. T9

    Whitcomb flied out to center.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  3. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  4. T9

    Jose Espada pitches to Shay Whitcomb

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  5. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  6. T9

    Johnson grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Correa out at second, Vázquez to third.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  13. T9

    Jose Espada pitches to Daniel Johnson

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  14. T9

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  15. T9

    Correa singled to left, Vázquez to second.

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  20. T9

    Jose Espada pitches to Carlos Correa

    · ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  21. T9

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  22. T9

    Vázquez singled to left.

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  23. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  24. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  25. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  26. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  27. T9

    Jose Espada pitches to Christian Vazquez

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  28. T9

    Espada relieved Nunez

    ·

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  29. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    HOU 3·BAL 10

  30. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    HOU 3·BAL 10

Team stats

HOU

Away

Stat

BAL

Home

3

Runs

10

12

Hits

6

1

Errors

1

12

TB

14

0

HR

2

1

BB

7

7

K

5

16

LOB

6

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9·HOU +113/BAL -136

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 30, 26sim 97
    1811
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    249
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 20, 26sim 96
    17
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    18
    7(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 95
    289
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 14 players in cohort
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175
  • Coby MayoBAL · 3B
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

BAL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Peter LambertHOU
    5.7± 2.5low
  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Spencer ArrighettiHOU
    5.4± 3.3low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Taylor TrammellHOU
    1.1± 0.8low
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    2.3± 3.5high
  • Christian WalkerHOU
    2.0± 2.9high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high

RBIs

  • Christian WalkerHOU
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Yordan AlvarezHOU
    0.7± 1.4high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Mike BurrowsHOU
    3.4± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.2%

ensemble · BAL favored

  • Elo Static

    53.2%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.7%

    P(BAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.8%

    P(BAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.88 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.