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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BAL
BAL

BAL

12-13

8
6
KC

KC

8-17

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
14,175 attended

Line movement

35 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

KC no-vig %

53.3%

open 53.3%

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 9.0TOTAL57.3%49.3%KC NO-VIG %MODEL 49.8%May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 8 · KC 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BAL2000060008
KC1002030006

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Wed, Apr 22·Final/SeriesBAL wins series 2-1/VegasKC -126

Recap · MLB

Baltimore Orioles went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 8–6.

BAL -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 9.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BAL · top performer

BAL
Pete Alonso

Pete Alonso

1B

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Vinnie Pasquantino

Vinnie Pasquantino

1B

2.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BAL12-13
8
6
KC8-17
BAL12-13·KC8-17
BAL

BAL

12-13

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
G. HendersonG. Henderson★SS
0-55000003
T. WardT. Ward★LF
1-33110020
D. BeaversD. Beavers★RF
2-55020000
P. AlonsoP. Alonso★1B
1-44212110
SPRINT25.29
S. BasalloS. Basallo★C
1-44110001
L. TaverasL. Taveras★CF
2-44121001
SPRINT2993
J. JacksonJ. Jackson★2B
1-44112001
SPRINT26.530
C. CowserC. Cowser★CF
2-44120001
SPRINT28.175
C. MayoC. Mayo★3B
1-44113101
SPRINT2872
Team11-37378118238
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. BassittC. Bassitt★SP
5.1855232
Y. CanoY. CanoRP
1.0111001
T. WellsT. WellsRP
1.2100000
A. NunezA. NunezRP
1.0000020
Team9.01066253
KC

KC

8-17

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-33000001
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-55010001
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-33221110
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
2-33222110
SPRINT27.457
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
2-44120001
SPRINT26.838
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44010000
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
1-44011000
SPRINT28.688
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-44112101
SPRINT26.941
N. LoftinN. Loftin2B
0-22000000
Team10-36366106325
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
5.1766251
E. MorganE. MorganRP
1.2322011
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0000010
M. BlackM. BlackRP
1.0100110
Team9.01188382

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BAL

  • C. Bassitt
    88 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      35%·91.9 mph·18% whiff
    • CU
      26%·71.3 mph·8% whiff
    • FC
      15%·89.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      13%·91.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      6%·85.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·72.9 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Nunez
    22 pitches·23% CSW
    • ST
      55%·86.4 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      14%·88.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      14%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·90.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Y. Cano
    11 pitches·9% CSW
    • SI
      45%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      36%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.7 mph·— whiff
  • T. Wells
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      30%·87.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      20%·77.1 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    89 pitches·24% CSW
    • CH
      22%·80.1 mph·23% whiff
    • FF
      21%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·76.3 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      11%·88.4 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.5 mph·40% whiff
  • M. Black
    24 pitches·21% CSW
    • FC
      29%·89.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      29%·94.4 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      8%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      8%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • E. Morgan
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      41%·75.9 mph·29% whiff
    • FF
      36%·90.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·85.7 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Lange
    18 pitches·28% CSW
    • SL
      44%·87.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      22%·90.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      11%·90.1 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      11%·95.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

10

8

Runs

6

1

Errors

0

Current series

BAL wins series 2-1

Apr 20BALBAL7@KCKC5
Apr 21BALBAL5@KCKC6
Apr 22BALBAL8@KCKC6today

Season series

BAL leads series 2-1

Apr 20BALBAL7@KCKC5
Apr 21BALBAL5@KCKC6
Apr 22BALBAL8@KCKC6today
Jul 10KCKC@BALBALupcoming
Jul 11KCKC@BALBALupcoming
Jul 12KCKC@BALBALupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BAL -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BALBAL+10549%
KCKC-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗SpreadBet BAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 35 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBAL ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 20pp · Top 6th Inning

BALBAL
P. Alonso

P. Alonso

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

C. Bassitt

C. Bassitt

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 3 K · 5 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

KCKC
V. Pasquantino

V. Pasquantino

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.417 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

5.1 IP · 5 K · 6 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BAL beat KC 8-6. Taveras's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (20pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs BAL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
BALTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+19pp→ 63% WP

Alonso · homered to right center (410 feet), Ward scored.

KCBottom 4th Inning · 2-3
+13pp→ 70% WP

Thomas · singled to center, Jensen scored, Caglianone to second.

BALTop 6th Inning · 3-3
+20pp→ 61% WP

Taveras · singled to right, Alonso scored, Taveras to second, Basallo to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BAL2000060008
KC1002030006

Period scoring

BAL won 2 · KC won 1

2
1

Inn 1

Alonso 2

Pasquantino 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Jensen 1

0
0

Inn 5

6
3

Inn 6

Mayo 3

Isbel 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BAL
KC

Play-by-play · 563 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BAL 8·KC 6

  2. B9

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  3. B9

    Witt Jr. struck out swinging.

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  10. B9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  11. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  12. B9

    Loftin safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Mayo.

    · ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

    +3pp

  13. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  14. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  15. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  16. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  17. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  18. B9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Nick Loftin

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  19. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  20. B9

    Isbel struck out swinging.

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

    −2pp

  21. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  22. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  27. B9

    Anthony Nunez pitches to Kyle Isbel

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  28. B9

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

  29. B9

    Thomas flied out to center.

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

    −3pp

  30. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BAL 8·KC 6

Team stats

BAL

Away

Stat

KC

Home

8

Runs

6

11

Hits

10

1

Errors

0

21

TB

21

2

HR

3

3

BB

2

8

K

5

10

LOB

13

Betting line

BAL -1.5·O/U 9.5·BAL +105/KC -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

KC vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Kyle BradishBAL
    5.6± 3.0low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Shane BazBAL
    5.3± 2.1low

Hits

  • Leody TaverasBAL
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.0± 1.3high

Total bases

  • Gunnar HendersonBAL
    1.9± 2.7high
  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    1.8± 1.9high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Pete AlonsoBAL
    0.7± 1.3high
  • Blaze AlexanderBAL
    0.6± 1.9high
  • Samuel BasalloBAL
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Trevor RogersBAL
    3.7± 2.8low
  • Shane BazBAL
    2.8± 2.3low
  • Chris BassittBAL
    2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.4%

ensemble · KC favored

  • Elo Static

    51.9%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    54.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.3%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.82 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 20, 26sim 98
    17
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 97
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 96
    249
    18(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 96
    183
    1(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 95
    247
    18(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 95
    289
    9(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Dylan BeaversBAL · RF
    SPRINT29.194
  • Leody TaverasBAL · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Gunnar HendersonBAL · SS
    SPRINT28.175
  • Colton CowserBAL · CF
    SPRINT28.175