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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1PHI
ARI

ARI

8-7

3
4
PHI

PHI

7-7

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
41,201 attended

Line movement

8 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

PHI no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL57.2%49.2%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 54.7%May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 3 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

ARI 3 · PHI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked PHI +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI2000000103
PHI004000004

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 98
    252
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 98
    294
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 98
    234
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 96
    115
    12(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 4, 26sim 96
    253
    2(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    296
    8(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -126

Recap · MLB

Philadelphia Phillies held off Arizona Diamondbacks, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (PHI won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 2.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
A

Adrian Del Castillo

DH

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Justin Crawford

Justin Crawford

CF

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI8-7
3
4
PHI7-7
ARI8-7·PHI7-7
ARI

ARI

8-7

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44111100
SPRINT26.225
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
0-33100012
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-33100011
SPRINT26.838
AA. Del Castillo★DH
3-44031000
SPRINT26.326
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-44011002
SPRINT29.597
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-44000002
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-33000011
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-33010001
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-44010002
Team7-32323731311
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. PfaadtB. Pfaadt★RP
6.0543362
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
1.0000120
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
1.0000030
Team8.05434112
PHI

PHI

7-7

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
0-44000002
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
1-44113102
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
1-33111110
SPRINT2744
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
0-44000001
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010010
SPRINT28.688
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-22000012
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
0-44000003
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44100001
SPRINT26.632
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
2-22120010
SPRINT29.798
Team5-30304542411
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
T. WalkerT. Walker★SP
5.0422261
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
0.2100010
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0000010
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
0.1000000
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0211120
J. DuranJ. DuranRP
1.0000010
Team9.07333111

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • B. Pfaadt
    101 pitches·29% CSW
    • ST
      24%·82.6 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      22%·92.3 mph·9% whiff
    • CU
      18%·80.7 mph·40% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.9 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      15%·92.5 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      5%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    20 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      85%·89.4 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      10%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      5%·77.6 mph·— whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • SL
      71%·84.7 mph·60% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.4 mph·25% whiff

PHI

  • T. Walker
    85 pitches·24% CSW
    • FS
      31%·86.2 mph·6% whiff
    • SI
      28%·91.3 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      13%·74.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·86.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      9%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      6%·81.5 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Keller
    28 pitches·39% CSW
    • FF
      61%·96.8 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      18%·92.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.6 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.5 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      7%·86.9 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • ST
      50%·86.4 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      29%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      21%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Duran
    12 pitches·0% CSW
    • FS
      75%·98.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      17%·88.4 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      8%·99.9 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      78%·94.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      22%·87.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    6 pitches·33% CSW
    • FC
      50%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      50%·99.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

5

3

Runs

4

1

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 10ARIARI5@PHIPHI4
Apr 11ARIARI3@PHIPHI4today
Apr 12ARIARI4@PHIPHI3

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 10ARIARI5@PHIPHI4
Apr 11ARIARI3@PHIPHI4today
Apr 12ARIARI4@PHIPHI3
Sep 1PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 2PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 2PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+10449%
PHIPHI-12656%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

ARIARI

A. Del Castillo

DH

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1.500 OPS

B. Pfaadt

B. Pfaadt

RP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

PHIPHI
J. Crawford

J. Crawford

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

T. Walker

T. Walker

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

PHI beat ARI 4-3. Schwarber's play in the bottom 3rd inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

PHI vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
ARITop 1st Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 70% WP

Del Castillo · singled to center, Carroll scored.

PHIBottom 3rd Inning · 2-3
+28pp→ 66% WP

Schwarber · homered to right (381 feet), Bohm scored and Crawford scored.

PHITop 8th Inning · 3-4
+10pp→ 89% WP

Arenado · struck out swinging.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI2000000103
PHI00400000—4

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · PHI won 1

2
0

Inn 1

Castillo 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
4

Inn 3

Schwarber 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Fernandez 1

0

Inn 9

ARI
PHI

Play-by-play · 551 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  2. T9

    Barrosa struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

    +3pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  8. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Jorge Barrosa

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  9. T9

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  10. T9

    Thomas grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

    +5pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  12. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  13. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  14. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Alek Thomas

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  15. T9

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  16. T9

    Tawa grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

    +7pp

  17. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  20. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  21. T9

    Jhoan Duran pitches to Tim Tawa

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  22. T9

    Duran relieved Keller

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  23. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  24. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  25. B8

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  26. B8

    Bohm struck out swinging.

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

    −0.8pp

  27. B8

    Pitch 8 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  28. B8

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  29. B8

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

  30. B8

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 3·PHI 4

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

3

Runs

4

7

Hits

5

1

Errors

1

11

TB

12

1

HR

2

3

BB

4

11

K

11

10

LOB

11

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 9·ARI +104/PHI -126

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

PHI vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    55.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    51.2%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    53.8%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.72 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

89% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381