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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
ARI

ARI

9-7

4
3
PHI

PHI

7-8

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
43,060 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

PHI no-vig %

54.3%

open 54.3%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL58.3%50.3%PHI NO-VIG %MODEL 56.1%May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 5 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 4 · PHI 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0100010204
PHI0000030003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-132

Close price

-132

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sun, Apr 12·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -132

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
A

Adrian Del Castillo

DH

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Trea Turner

Trea Turner

SS

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI9-7
4
3
PHI7-8
ARI9-7·PHI7-8
ARI

ARI

9-7

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-55110001
SPRINT26.941
C. CarrollC. Carroll★RF
2-44020011
SPRINT29.496
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
0-44100000
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
2-44121001
SPRINT29.597
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
1-22111000
SPRINT25.29
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-33000001
J. McCannJ. McCann★C
2-44021002
SPRINT25.29
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
0-33000002
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
0-44000003
AA. Del CastilloDH
1-11011000
Team9-34344940211
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. GallenZ. Gallen★SP
5.0833121
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0000000
T. ClarkeT. ClarkeRP
1.0100000
K. GinkelK. GinkelRP
0.1100110
R. ThompsonR. ThompsonRP
0.2000000
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0000020
Team9.01033251
PHI

PHI

7-8

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
2-44122100
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
2-44120001
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-33021010
SPRINT2744
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.175
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-44010001
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44000001
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-33000011
R. MarchanR. Marchan★C
0-44000000
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT29.798
Team10-34343103125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. PopZ. Pop★RP
2.0311010
A. PainterA. PainterSP
5.0311170
J. AlvaradoJ. AlvaradoRP
0.1222000
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
0.2100120
T. MayzaT. MayzaRP
1.0000010
Team9.09442110

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • Z. Gallen
    84 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      46%·93.4 mph·12% whiff
    • SL
      26%·89.0 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      13%·81.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·87.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      5%·93.5 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Clarke
    15 pitches·27% CSW
    • FC
      27%·94.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      27%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.6 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.5 mph·— whiff
  • K. Ginkel
    12 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      75%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·84.9 mph·50% whiff
  • P. Sewald
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      64%·92.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      36%·83.6 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • CH
      44%·89.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      33%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      11%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Thompson
    5 pitches·0% CSW
    • SI
      100%·87.8 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • A. Painter
    80 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      35%·96.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.7 mph·63% whiff
    • ST
      18%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      14%·81.2 mph·40% whiff
    • FS
      9%·87.5 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      8%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
  • Z. Pop
    37 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      57%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      27%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      16%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    18 pitches·39% CSW
    • SL
      28%·85.6 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      22%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      22%·97.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      6%·84.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Alvarado
    13 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      77%·98.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      23%·92.7 mph·33% whiff
  • T. Mayza
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      89%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·88.5 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

10

4

Runs

3

0

Errors

1

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 10ARIARI5@PHIPHI4
Apr 11ARIARI3@PHIPHI4
Apr 12ARIARI4@PHIPHI3today

Season series

ARI leads series 2-1

Apr 10ARIARI5@PHIPHI4
Apr 11ARIARI3@PHIPHI4
Apr 12ARIARI4@PHIPHI3today
Sep 1PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 2PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 2PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+10948%
PHIPHI-13257%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 31pp · Top 9th Inning

ARIARI

A. Del Castillo

DH

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

Z. Gallen

Z. Gallen

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 3 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

PHIPHI
T. Turner

T. Turner

SS

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

A. Painter

A. Painter

SP

Top reliever

5.0 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 3 H · 1 BB

How it ended

ARI beat PHI 4-3. Barrosa's play in the top 9th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (31pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 6th Inning · 2-2
+24pp→ 63% WP

Turner · homered to right center (359 feet), Crawford scored.

ARITop 8th Inning · 4-3
+26pp→ 78% WP

Del Castillo · singled to right, Fernandez scored, Marte to third.

ARITop 9th Inning · 4-3
+31pp→ 81% WP

Barrosa · struck out looking.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0100010204
PHI0000030003

Period scoring

ARI won 2 · PHI won 1

0
0

Inn 1

1
0

Inn 2

McCann 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

1
3

Inn 6

Arenado 1

Turner 2

0
0

Inn 7

2
0

Inn 8

Fernandez 1

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
PHI

Play-by-play · 570 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  2. B9

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  3. B9

    Crawford struck out looking.

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

    −5pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  9. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Justin Crawford

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  10. B9

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  11. B9

    Marchán popped out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

    −7pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  14. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Rafael Marchan

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  15. B9

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  16. B9

    Bohm struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

    −9pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  21. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Alec Bohm

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  22. B9

    Sewald relieved Thompson

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  25. T9

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  26. T9

    Carroll lined out to left.

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

    +1pp

  27. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 4·PHI 3

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

4

Runs

3

9

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

12

TB

16

0

HR

1

2

BB

2

11

K

5

16

LOB

15

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8.5·ARI +109/PHI -132

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Corbin CarrollARI · RF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

PHI vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.0%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    56.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    58.2%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    54.8%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.39 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 11, 26sim 98
    293
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 98
    234
    16(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 10, 26sim 97
    295
    22(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 3, 26sim 96
    252
    2(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    230
    8(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 96
    21
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs