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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+12WSH
WSH

WSH

14-17

14
2
NYM

NYM

10-20

Citi Field · Queens, New York
32,624 attended

Line movement

36 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

60.0%

open 60.0%

-1.0-2.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL64.0%56.0%NYM NO-VIG %May 3, 7 PMMay 30, 9 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

WSH 14 · NYM 2 (by 12)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked NYM +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
WSH20070130114
NYM0010100002

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 27, 26sim 95
    37
    4(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 92
    205
    21(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 92
    206
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 23, 26sim 92
    98
    21(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 91
    95
    20(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 91
    246
    20(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+139

Close price

+139

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 29·Final/SeriesWSH wins series 2-1/VegasNYM -169

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals went into New York Mets and beat them, 14–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

WSH +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 8.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Curtis Mead

Curtis Mead

1B

2.200OPS

5-4

AB-H

4

R

2

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Juan Soto

Juan Soto

LF

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Washington Nationals at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
WSH14-17
14
2
NYM10-20
WSH14-17·NYM10-20
WSH

WSH

14-17

14
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-55323012
SPRINT27.457
C. MeadC. Mead★1B
4-55442100
SPRINT26.838
B. HouseB. House★3B
1-55114112
SPRINT2872
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
3-44032011
SPRINT28.483
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-44112011
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-55110004
J. WiemerJ. Wiemer★RF
2-55221002
SPRINT28.891
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-33210021
K. RuizK. Ruiz★C
0-55000002
J. TenaJ. TenaDH
0-11000000
Team15-42421415142615
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. CavalliC. Cavalli★SP
6.08222101
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0000000
P. SchultzP. SchultzRP
1.0200010
P. PoulinP. PoulinRP
1.0000010
Team9.010222121
NYM

NYM

10-20

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
1-55110000
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
3-55131100
SPRINT25.513
M. MelendezM. Melendez★DH
1-22011011
SPRINT26.941
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-44000003
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
1-33010011
T. TaylorT. Taylor★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT28.891
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
0-44000002
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
2-33020001
SPRINT28.175
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-44000003
A. SlaterA. SlaterRF
0-11000000
L. TorrensL. TorrensC
0-11000000
Team10-363621021212
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. PetersonD. Peterson★SP
3.2577350
S. ManaeaS. ManaeaRP
2.2766241
C. Edwards Jr.C. Edwards Jr.RP
2.2311161
Team9.01514146152

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

WSH

  • C. Cavalli
    97 pitches·37% CSW
    • FF
      36%·96.2 mph·20% whiff
    • KC
      29%·85.5 mph·63% whiff
    • SI
      16%·95.8 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      10%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·89.4 mph·67% whiff
  • C. Perez
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • FF
      56%·96.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·83.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      13%·85.0 mph·— whiff
  • P. Schultz
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FC
      50%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      36%·93.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·86.9 mph·100% whiff
  • P. Poulin
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • ST
      40%·78.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      30%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·78.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FF
      10%·89.7 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    80 pitches·28% CSW
    • SI
      26%·92.5 mph·13% whiff
    • FF
      24%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      23%·86.2 mph·46% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.1 mph·40% whiff
    • CH
      9%·85.7 mph·67% whiff
  • S. Manaea
    73 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      36%·90.1 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      33%·74.1 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      14%·84.4 mph·80% whiff
    • SI
      14%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Edwards Jr.
    50 pitches·44% CSW
    • FF
      50%·93.0 mph·70% whiff
    • CU
      28%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      22%·89.0 mph·43% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

10

14

Runs

2

0

Errors

0

Current series

WSH wins series 2-1

Apr 28WSHWSH0@NYMNYM8
Apr 29WSHWSH14@NYMNYM2today
Apr 30WSHWSH5@NYMNYM4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 28WSHWSH0@NYMNYM8
Apr 29WSHWSH14@NYMNYM2today
Apr 30WSHWSH5@NYMNYM4
May 18NYMNYM16@WSHWSH7
May 19NYMNYM6@WSHWSH9
May 20NYMNYM4@WSHWSH8
May 21NYMNYM2@WSHWSH1
Aug 14WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 15WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Aug 16WSHWSH@NYMNYMupcoming
Sep 25NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 26NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming
Sep 27NYMNYM@WSHWSHupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYM -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+13942%
NYMNYM-16963%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗SpreadBet NYM -1.5↗

Line movement · 36 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowWSH ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 3rd Inning

WSHWSH
C. Mead

C. Mead

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS

C. Cavalli

C. Cavalli

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

6.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
J. Soto

J. Soto

LF

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 5 K · 7 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

WSH beat NYM 14-2.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

NYM vs WSH

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
WSHTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+10pp→ 60% WP

Abrams · singled to right, Wood scored, Mead to third.

NYMBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 46% WP

Soto · homered to left center (375 feet).

WSHTop 4th Inning · 9-1
+10pp→ 98% WP

House · homered to left center (385 feet), Nuñez scored, Wood scored and Mead scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
WSH20070130114
NYM0010100002

Period scoring

WSH won 5 · NYM won 2

2
0

Inn 1

Abrams 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Soto 1

7
0

Inn 4

House 4

0
1

Inn 5

Melendez 1

1
0

Inn 6

Abrams 1

3
0

Inn 7

Wood 2

0
0

Inn 8

1
0

Inn 9

Mead 1

WSH
NYM

Play-by-play · 653 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  2. B9

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  3. B9

    Soto flied out to right.

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  8. B9

    PJ Poulin pitches to Juan Soto

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  9. B9

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  10. B9

    Bichette grounded out to second.

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  13. B9

    PJ Poulin pitches to Bo Bichette

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  14. B9

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  15. B9

    Mauricio struck out swinging.

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  20. B9

    PJ Poulin pitches to Ronny Mauricio

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  21. B9

    Poulin relieved Schultz

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  22. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  23. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  24. T9

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  25. T9

    Tena lined out to left.

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  29. T9

    Carl Edwards Jr. pitches to Jose Tena

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

  30. T9

    ·

    WSH 14·NYM 2

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

14

Runs

2

15

Hits

10

0

Errors

0

25

TB

14

2

HR

1

6

BB

2

15

K

12

20

LOB

16

Betting line

NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·WSH +139/NYM -169

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jacob YoungWSH · CF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Joey WiemerWSH · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Carson BengeNYM · RF
    SPRINT28.586

Player projections

NYM vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 71 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Freddy PeraltaNYM
    5.5± 3.2low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.0%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    51.9%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    49.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.03 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.