
WSH
14-17

NYM
10-20
Line movement
36 snapshots
NYM spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
NYM no-vig %
60.0%
open 60.0%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
WSH wins
WSH 14 · NYM 2 (by 12)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked NYM +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+139
Close price
+139
Open no-vig
40.0%
Close no-vig
40.0%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit
Recap · MLB
ashington Nationals went into New York Mets and beat them, 14–2. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
WSH +1.5 cashed (NYM lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 8.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
WSH · top performer

Curtis Mead
1B
5-4
AB-H
4
R
2
RBI
NYM · top performer

Juan Soto
LF
5-3
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


WSH
14-17
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 4-5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.891 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 15-42 | 42 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
NYM
10-20
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT25.513 | ||||||||
| 1-2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.941 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.891 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 10-36 | 36 | 2 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 3.2 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| 2.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 15 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 15 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantWSH
NYM
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
15
Hits
10
14
Runs
2
0
Errors
0
Current series
WSH wins series 2-1
Season series
Series tied 1-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
NYM -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 36 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 3rd Inning
C. Mead
1BBatter of the gamePerfect day
4-for-5 · 1 HR · 2.200 OPS
C. Cavalli
SPStarting pitcher10-K game
6.0 IP · 10 K · 2 ER · 8 H · 2 BB
J. Soto
LFBatter of the game
3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS
D. Peterson
SPStarting pitcher
3.2 IP · 5 K · 7 ER · 5 H · 3 BB
How it ended
WSH beat NYM 14-2.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
NYM vs WSH
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactAbrams · singled to right, Wood scored, Mead to third.
Soto · homered to left center (375 feet).
House · homered to left center (385 feet), Nuñez scored, Wood scored and Mead scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
WSH won 5 · NYM won 2
Inn 1
Abrams 1
Inn 2
Inn 3
Soto 1
Inn 4
House 4
Inn 5
Melendez 1
Inn 6
Abrams 1
Inn 7
Wood 2
Inn 8
Inn 9
Mead 1
Play-by-play · 653 plays
End of the 9th inning
WSH 14·NYM 2
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Soto flied out to right.
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
PJ Poulin pitches to Juan Soto
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Bichette grounded out to second.
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
PJ Poulin pitches to Bo Bichette
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Mauricio struck out swinging.
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
PJ Poulin pitches to Ronny Mauricio
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Poulin relieved Schultz
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Bottom of the 9th inning
WSH 14·NYM 2
Middle of the 9th inning
WSH 14·NYM 2
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Tena lined out to left.
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Carl Edwards Jr. pitches to Jose Tena
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
·
WSH 14·NYM 2
Team stats
WSH
Away
Stat
NYM
Home
14
Runs
2
15
Hits
10
0
Errors
0
25
TB
14
2
HR
1
6
BB
2
15
K
12
20
LOB
16
Betting line
NYM -1.5·O/U 7.5·WSH +139/NYM -169
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 71 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
48.0%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
51.9%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.5%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.03 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
93% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.