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TOP 7TH+1WSH

MIN

16-21

WSH

17-20

Live · model leanTop 7thPolls every 30s

57.7%

WSH wins · current

Pre-game: 54.4% WSH

MIN 4 · 5 WSH

WSH +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsWSH leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingWSHTop 6th Inning · 4-5
+12pp→ 76% WP
Buxton · struck out swinging.
SwingWSHBottom 5th Inning · 3-4
+21pp→ 79% WP
Ruiz · doubled to right, Young scored and Tena scored.
SwingMINTop 5th Inning · 3-2
+13pp→ 68% WP
Gray · reached on infield single to second, Lee scored, Gray to second.
Lead flipWSHBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1
+14pp→ 55% WP
Ruiz · doubled to right, Young scored, Ruiz to third.
SwingMINTop 2nd Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 72% WP
Lee · singled to left, Jeffers scored and Keaschall scored, Clemens to third.

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 11.42

S. Woods Richardson

0-5 · 6.49 ERA

J. Irvin

1-4 · 4.93 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

50.0%

open 49.6% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.9%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
54.4%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.3%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.1%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.97 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

81% confidence

Win prob · home

87.7%

+33.3ppvs pre-game · WSH favored

Leverage

medium

1-point game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP recomputes every 30 seconds from current score, time remaining, and possession state. Leverage measures how much the next play could swing the result.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Player props

Player projections

WSH vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 74 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.5± 3.5low
Jake IrvinWSH
5.6± 2.5low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.0± 1.4low

Hits

Byron BuxtonMIN
1.2± 0.9high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.2high
Austin MartinMIN
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Byron BuxtonMIN
2.8± 2.4high
CJ AbramsWSH
2.0± 2.7high
Ryan JeffersMIN
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

CJ AbramsWSH
1.1± 1.6high
Byron BuxtonMIN
0.8± 1.1high
Ryan JeffersMIN
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Zack LittellWSH
3.7± 3.5low
Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
3.6± 2.3low
Miles MikolasWSH
3.4± 4.4low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

Thu, May 7

MIN

Twins

16-21

vs54.4%WSH

WSH★

Nationals

17-20

MIN 45.6%win prob54.4% WSH

WSH 1458 · MIN 1451Box score→

MLBThu, May 7Top 7thSeriestied 1-1VegasWSH -126

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

MIN · WSH

MIN

16-21

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
B. Buxton★CF	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	20	.238	.294	.510	0.000
T. Larnach★LF	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	12	.273	.396	.398	0.500
A. Martin★LF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	24	.325	.466	.413	0.667
R. Jeffers★C	2-2	2	2	2	1	1	1	0	13	.298	.407	.521	3.500
M. Wallner★RF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	9	.185	.285	.324	0.000
L. Keaschall★2B	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	1	0	11	.234	.305	.314	1.167
K. Clemens★1B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	.193	.316	.349	0.000
B. Lee★SS	2-2	2	1	2	2	0	1	0	10	.273	.328	.438	2.000
T. Gray★3B	1-3	3	0	1	1	0	0	1	16	.262	.303	.426	0.667
Team	8-23	23	4	8	4	1	3	4	123				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
S. Woods Richardson★SP	4.1	4	5	5	2	2	0	61-34	6.92	61
A. BandaRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	20-9	8.04	20
J. KleinSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18-13	0.00	18
Team	6.0	4	5	5	4	2	0	99-56		99

WSH

17-20

	Batting												Analytics
Player	H-AB	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K	#P	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J. Wood★RF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	11	.238	.391	.503	0.667
D. Lile★LF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	13	.240	.319	.363	0.000
C. Mead★1B	0-3	3	0	0	1	0	0	0	12	.210	.312	.432	0.000
C. Abrams★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	18	.292	.394	.546	0.000
B. House★3B	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	16	.240	.301	.400	1.167
J. Tena★2B	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	8	.288	.347	.470	0.333
J. Young★CF	1-2	2	2	1	0	0	0	0	11	.236	.277	.325	1.000
K. Ruiz★C	2-2	2	2	2	3	0	0	0	7	.206	.225	.353	2.000
N. Nunez★2B	0-0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	.217	.317	.245	—
Team	4-17	17	5	4	5	0	4	2	99				—

	Batting
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	PC-ST	ERA	PC
J. Irvin★SP	5.0	8	4	4	1	2	1	92-63	5.22	92
R. LoveladyRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	0	16-7	2.40	16
O. RibaltaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	0	15-6	1.93	15
Team	6.1	8	4	4	3	4	1	123-76		123

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

Hits

Runs

Errors

Current series

Series tied 1-1

May 5

MIN11@

WSH3

May 6

MIN2@

WSH15

May 7

MIN@

WSHtoday

Season series

Series tied 1-1

May 5

MIN11@

WSH3

May 6

MIN2@

WSH15

May 7

MIN@

WSHtoday

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

1.5pt· 6.2h

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN+10449%

WSH-12656%

2· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

MINSP

S. Woods Richardson

#24 · 0-5

ERA

6.49

—

Last 3 starts

5/2vs

TOR4.2 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(0-5)

4/26@

TB4.1 IP · 4 ER · 2 KL(0-4)

4/21@

NYM5.0 IP · 3 ER · 2 K-

WSHSP

J. Irvin

#27 · 1-4

ERA

4.93

—

Last 3 starts

5/1vs

MIL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 KL(1-4)

4/25@

CHW5.2 IP · 0 ER · 9 K-

4/20vs

ATL5.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 KL(1-3)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

MIN4L · 4R · 1S

1
B. Buxton
CF · #25
R
2
T. Larnach
DH · #9
L
3
A. Martin
LF · #16
R
4
R. Jeffers
C · #27
R
5
M. Wallner
RF · #38
L
6
L. Keaschall
2B · #15
R
7
K. Clemens
1B · #2
L
8
B. Lee
SS · #22
B
9
T. Gray
3B · #4
L

WSH4L · 3R · 2S

1
J. Wood
RF · #29
L
2
D. Lile
LF · #4
L
3
C. Mead
1B · #45
R
4
C. Abrams
SS · #5
L
5
B. House
3B · #12
R
6
J. Tena
DH · #8
L
7
J. Young
CF · #30
R
8
K. Ruiz
C · #20
B
9
N. Nunez
2B · #26
B

Live · top performers so far

Top 7th

Game flowMIN ↔ WSH

Recent swing: 21pp · Bottom 5th Inning

Just happened

Pitch · 4 : Ball 3

MIN

R. Jeffers

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

S. Woods Richardson

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 2 K · 5 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 3 K · 8 ER

WSH

K. Ruiz

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Irvin

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 4 ER · 8 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 3 K · 6 ER

How it's going

WSH lead MIN 5-4 (Top 7th). Ruiz's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (21pp).

Win probability

WSH vs MIN

Score progression

1 lead change

MIN4

WSH5

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

MINTop 2nd Inning · 2-0

+16pp→ 72% WP

Lee · singled to left, Jeffers scored and Keaschall scored, Clemens to third.

WSHBottom 3rd Inning · 2-1

+14pp→ 55% WP

Ruiz · doubled to right, Young scored, Ruiz to third.

WSHBottom 5th Inning · 3-4

+21pp→ 79% WP

Ruiz · doubled to right, Young scored and Tena scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	R
MIN	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	4
WSH	0	0	2	0	3	0	—	5

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · WSH won 2

Inn 1

Inn 2

Lee 2

Inn 3

Ruiz 1

Inn 4

Inn 5

Gray 1

Ruiz 2

Inn 6

Jeffers 1

Inn 7

MIN

WSH

Game flow · key plays

T6
Buxton struck out swinging.
MIN 4·WSH 5
+12pp
B5
Ruiz doubled to right, Young scored and Tena scored.
MIN 3·WSH 4
+21pp
B5
Tena walked.
MIN 3·WSH 2
+20pp
T5
Gray reached on infield single to second, Lee scored, Gray to second.
MIN 3·WSH 2
−13pp
B3
Ruiz doubled to right, Young scored, Ruiz to third.
MIN 2·WSH 1
+14pp
T2
Lee singled to left, Jeffers scored and Keaschall scored, Clemens to third.
MIN 2·WSH 0
−16pp

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Hits

Errors

Runs

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 9.5·MIN +104/WSH -126

DraftKings · via ESPN