
MIN
12-13

NYM
9-16
Line movement
25 snapshots
NYM spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
NYM no-vig %
51.1%
open 51.1%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
NYM wins
MIN 8 · NYM 10 (by 2)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked NYM +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| NYM | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
Recap · MLB
ew York Mets held off Minnesota Twins, 10–8.
NYM +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 10.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MIN · top performer

Ryan Jeffers
C
3-1
AB-H
1
R
4
RBI
NYM · top performer

Carson Benge
RF
3-2
AB-H
2
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


MIN
12-13
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
SPRINT26.632 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.326 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3-4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.867 | ||||||||
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 3-4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT26.428 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.428 | ||||||||
| Team | 12-39 | 39 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 5.0 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8.0 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
NYM
9-16
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 3-5 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT25.716 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2993 | ||||||||
| 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.735 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.586 | ||||||||
| Team | 10-33 | 33 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 1.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| 3.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 12 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantMIN
NYM
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
Hits
10
8
Runs
10
0
Errors
1
Current series
NYM win series 2-1
Season series
NYM win series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MIN -1.5
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 25 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
7.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 8th Inning
R. Jeffers
CBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS
J. Ryan
SPStarting pitcher
5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB
C. Benge
RFBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS
D. Peterson
SPTop reliever
3.1 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB
How it ended
NYM beat MIN 10-8. Jeffers's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).
Win probability
NYM vs MIN
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBaty · homered to right (414 feet), Bichette scored and Robert Jr. scored.
Jeffers · homered to left (377 feet), Lee scored, Larnach scored and Bell scored.
Bichette · doubled to left, Baty scored, Pham scored and Semien scored.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| NYM | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | — | 10 |
Period scoring
MIN won 2 · NYM won 2
Inn 1
Martin 1
Baty 3
Inn 2
Bichette 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Bell 1
Benge 1
Inn 5
Inn 6
Gray 1
Inn 7
Inn 8
Jeffers 4
Bichette 3
Inn 9
Gray 1
Play-by-play · 624 plays
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Larnach struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
+10pp
Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Devin Williams pitches to Trevor Larnach
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Buxton doubled to left, Gray to third.BIG MOMENT
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
−8pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Devin Williams pitches to Byron Buxton
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Gray singled to right, Lee scored.
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
−2pp
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Lee to second on fielder's indifference.
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Lee to second on fielder's indifference.
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Devin Williams pitches to Tristan Gray
· ·
MIN 8·NYM 10
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Lee singled to center.
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
−0.5pp
Pitch 7 : Ball In Play
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Pitch 5 : Ball 3
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging
·
MIN 7·NYM 10
Team stats
MIN
Away
Stat
NYM
Home
8
Runs
10
12
Hits
10
0
Errors
1
19
TB
20
2
HR
2
7
BB
3
9
K
9
23
LOB
13
Betting line
MIN -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN -105/NYM -115
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 16 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 72 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · NYM favored
Elo Static
52.5%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.2%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.3%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.51 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.