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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2NYM
MIN

MIN

12-13

8
10
NYM

NYM

9-16

Citi Field · Queens, New York
34,253 attended

Line movement

25 snapshots

NYM spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

NYM no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0NYM SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL55.1%47.1%NYM NO-VIG %MODEL 50.7%May 3, 7 PMMay 23, 8 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYM wins

MIN 8 · NYM 10 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYM +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
MIN1001010418
NYM3301000310

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    2610
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 92
    13
    20(H)13
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 92
    2014
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 7, 26sim 91
    95
    20(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 14, 26sim 91
    64
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 30, 26sim 91
    1811
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Thu, Apr 23·Final/SeriesNYM win series 2-1/VegasNYM -115

Recap · MLB

New York Mets held off Minnesota Twins, 10–8.

NYM +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 10.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

MIN
Ryan Jeffers

Ryan Jeffers

C

1.933OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

4

RBI

NYM · top performer

NYM
Carson Benge

Carson Benge

RF

2.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Minnesota Twins at New York Mets · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
MIN12-13
8
10
NYM9-16
MIN12-13·NYM9-16
MIN

MIN

12-13

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BuxtonB. Buxton★CF
1-55010002
T. LarnachT. Larnach★LF
1-55210013
SPRINT26.632
J. BellJ. Bell★DH
1-44111010
R. JeffersR. Jeffers★C
1-33114121
SPRINT26.326
K. ClemensK. Clemens★1B
0-44000011
A. MartinA. Martin★LF
3-44031010
SPRINT27.867
L. KeaschallL. Keaschall★2B
0-55000001
B. LeeB. Lee★SS
3-44330010
SPRINT26.428
T. GrayT. Gray★3B
2-55122101
SPRINT26.428
Team12-39398128279
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. RyanJ. Ryan★SP
5.0774252
A. MorrisA. MorrisRP
2.2222040
A. BandaA. BandaRP
0.1111100
Team8.010107392
NYM

NYM

9-16

10
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
B. BichetteB. Bichette★3B
3-55233002
SPRINT25.716
J. SotoJ. Soto★LF
0-33000020
F. AlvarezF. Alvarez★C
0-33001002
L. Robert Jr.L. Robert Jr.★CF
1-44111000
SPRINT2993
B. BatyB. Baty★3B
2-44223101
SPRINT26.735
M. VientosM. Vientos★1B
0-33000000
M. SemienM. Semien★2B
2-44220001
SPRINT28.175
R. MauricioR. Mauricio★SS
0-44000002
C. BengeC. Benge★RF
2-33221101
SPRINT28.586
Team10-333310109239
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ScottC. Scott★SP
1.1011510
T. MyersT. MyersRP
2.1210030
D. PetersonD. PetersonSP
3.1411121
C. KimbrelC. KimbrelRP
0.2233110
H. BrazobanH. BrazobanRP
0.2111001
D. WilliamsD. WilliamsRP
0.2311020
Team9.01287792

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

MIN

  • J. Ryan
    92 pitches·26% CSW
    • FF
      30%·91.9 mph·22% whiff
    • SI
      22%·91.6 mph·8% whiff
    • KC
      18%·76.4 mph·29% whiff
    • FS
      13%·86.6 mph·17% whiff
    • ST
      9%·77.1 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.3 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Morris
    37 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      43%·95.9 mph·20% whiff
    • ST
      22%·81.3 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.6 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      5%·73.0 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·86.4 mph·— whiff
  • A. Banda
    9 pitches·11% CSW
    • FF
      78%·94.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·84.1 mph·0% whiff

NYM

  • D. Peterson
    45 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      36%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·92.7 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      20%·81.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      13%·87.2 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      9%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Scott
    43 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      56%·95.5 mph·11% whiff
    • FC
      21%·88.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.1 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      9%·93.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      2%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Myers
    40 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      50%·92.0 mph·8% whiff
    • FS
      25%·78.6 mph·60% whiff
    • FC
      13%·86.8 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·81.8 mph·— whiff
  • D. Williams
    22 pitches·36% CSW
    • CH
      55%·84.4 mph·63% whiff
    • FF
      45%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Kimbrel
    19 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      58%·93.2 mph·14% whiff
    • KC
      32%·83.4 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      11%·84.1 mph·— whiff
  • H. Brazoban
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • SI
      70%·94.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      30%·89.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

10

8

Runs

10

0

Errors

1

Current series

NYM win series 2-1

Apr 21MINMIN5@NYMNYM3
Apr 22MINMIN2@NYMNYM3
Apr 23MINMIN8@NYMNYM10today

Season series

NYM win series 2-1

Apr 21MINMIN5@NYMNYM3
Apr 22MINMIN2@NYMNYM3
Apr 23MINMIN8@NYMNYM10today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MINMIN-10551%
NYMNYM-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowMIN ↔ NYM

Biggest swing: 34pp · Top 8th Inning

MINMIN
R. Jeffers

R. Jeffers

C

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.933 OPS

J. Ryan

J. Ryan

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 7 H · 2 BB

NYMNYM
C. Benge

C. Benge

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.333 OPS

D. Peterson

D. Peterson

SP

Top reliever

3.1 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYM beat MIN 10-8. Jeffers's play in the top 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (34pp).

Win probability

NYM vs MIN

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYMBottom 1st Inning · 1-3
+28pp→ 61% WP

Baty · homered to right (414 feet), Bichette scored and Robert Jr. scored.

MINTop 8th Inning · 7-7
+34pp→ 40% WP

Jeffers · homered to left (377 feet), Lee scored, Larnach scored and Bell scored.

NYMBottom 8th Inning · 7-10
+31pp→ 98% WP

Bichette · doubled to left, Baty scored, Pham scored and Semien scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
MIN1001010418
NYM33010003—10

Period scoring

MIN won 2 · NYM won 2

1
3

Inn 1

Martin 1

Baty 3

0
3

Inn 2

Bichette 1

0
0

Inn 3

1
1

Inn 4

Bell 1

Benge 1

0
0

Inn 5

1
0

Inn 6

Gray 1

0
0

Inn 7

4
3

Inn 8

Jeffers 4

Bichette 3

1

Inn 9

Gray 1

MIN
NYM

Play-by-play · 624 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  2. T9

    Larnach struck out swinging.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

    +10pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  4. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  5. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  6. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  7. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  8. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to Trevor Larnach

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  9. T9

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  10. T9

    Buxton doubled to left, Gray to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

    −8pp

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  12. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  13. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to Byron Buxton

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  14. T9

    ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  15. T9

    Gray singled to right, Lee scored.

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

    −2pp

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  19. T9

    Lee to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  20. T9

    Lee to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  22. T9

    Devin Williams pitches to Tristan Gray

    · ·

    MIN 8·NYM 10

  23. T9

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  24. T9

    Lee singled to center.

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

    −0.5pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  26. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  27. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  28. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  29. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

  30. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    MIN 7·NYM 10

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

NYM

Home

8

Runs

10

12

Hits

10

0

Errors

1

19

TB

20

2

HR

2

7

BB

3

9

K

9

23

LOB

13

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 7.5·MIN -105/NYM -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
    SPRINT29.597
  • Luis Robert Jr.NYM · CF
    SPRINT2993
  • Tyrone TaylorNYM · CF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • Marcus SemienNYM · 2B
    SPRINT28.175

Player projections

NYM vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 72 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    6.7± 2.3low
  • Taj BradleyMIN
    6.5± 3.1low
  • Joe RyanMIN
    5.9± 3.1low

Hits

  • Juan SotoNYM
    1.2± 0.8high
  • Orlando ArciaMIN
    1.1± 1.4low
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Juan SotoNYM
    2.7± 2.7high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    2.4± 2.7high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Juan SotoNYM
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Brooks LeeMIN
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Byron BuxtonMIN
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Simeon Woods RichardsonMIN
    3.6± 3.0low
  • David PetersonNYM
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Nolan McLeanNYM
    2.8± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · NYM favored

  • Elo Static

    52.5%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    52.2%

    P(NYM win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    51.3%

    P(NYM win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.51 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.