• Home
  • Scores
  • Live
  • Tonight's picks
Free during beta —Free during beta — to track favorite players + get game alertsto track favorites + alerts
  • NBA logo
  • NHL logo
  • WNBA logo
  • MLB logo
  • UFC logo
  • NFL logo
THE ONE Analytics
Beta
MLB logoMLBHubScoresOddsPicksEdgesStandingsTrendsTeamsPlayersLeadersMethodologyGlossaryRoadmapAbout
FINAL+3WSH
STL

STL

5-5

6
9
WSH

WSH

4-6

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
12,319 attended

Line movement

9 snapshots

WSH spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

WSH no-vig %

50.0%

open 50.0%

+2.0+1.0WSH SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL54.0%46.0%WSH NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 7 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

STL 6 · WSH 9 (by 3)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
STL0000120306
WSH200001069

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

Build your edge. Every week.

Weekly research digest

One email per week · unsubscribe anytime

THE ONE Analytics

Elite sports analytics across NFL, NBA, MLB, WNBA, NCAA football, and NCAA basketball. Statcast-style advanced metrics, AI-graded prop analysis, and a model edge against Vegas refreshed every night.

6 leagues live · model running
Beta · every feature free

Sports

  • NFL
  • WNBA
  • CFB
  • NBA
  • CBB
  • MLB
  • NHL
  • UFC
  • Soccer
  • Horse Racing

Product

  • Features
  • Sports coverage
  • Best bets
  • Live games
  • Futures
  • 2026 Draft Big Board
  • Cross-sport rankings
  • Model accuracy
  • Yesterday's recap
  • NFL player directory
  • NBA head-to-head
  • Box scores · cross-sport
  • Sportsbooks by state
  • My bets
  • Methodology
  • Glossary
  • Pricing

Company

  • About
  • Notes
  • Partners
  • Press kit
  • Roadmap
  • Changelog
  • Brand kit
  • Sign in

Legal

  • Terms of Service
  • Betting Terms
  • Privacy Policy
  • Responsible Gambling
21+

Analytics for entertainment + research. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.

Resources →

© 2026 The One Analytics. All rights reserved. · [email protected]

Analytical research only · not gambling advice · bet responsibly

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Mon, Apr 6·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasWSH -110

Recap · MLB

Washington Nationals held off St. Louis Cardinals, 9–6.

WSH +1.5 cashed (STL lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 7.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Ramon Urias

Ramon Urias

3B

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

WSH · top performer

WSH
James Wood

James Wood

RF

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

MLB · St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
STL5-5
6
9
WSH4-6
STL5-5·WSH4-6
STL

STL

5-5

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-33010021
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44000011
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
0-44001011
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
2-55121102
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-44100012
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-44110011
SPRINT2872
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
3-44233100
SPRINT26.735
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
2-33120010
SPRINT27.354
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-33001000
Team9-3434696278
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PallanteA. Pallante★SP
5.0322420
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.2111200
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.0200100
R. StanekR. StanekRP
0.2333011
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
0.2333012
Team8.01299743
WSH

WSH

4-6

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WoodJ. Wood★RF
2-33223120
SPRINT27.457
L. Garcia Jr.L. Garcia Jr.★1B
0-22100010
B. HouseB. House★3B
3-55132100
SPRINT2872
D. LileD. Lile★LF
1-55011002
SPRINT29.395
C. AbramsC. Abrams★SS
1-44111110
SPRINT28.483
N. NunezN. Nunez★2B
1-55011001
J. TenaJ. Tena★DH
0-33100010
D. MillasD. Millas★C
1-22110020
J. YoungJ. Young★CF
1-33011001
C. MeadC. Mead1B
1-22110000
SPRINT26.838
J. VivasJ. Vivas3B
1-11010000
Team12-35359129374
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
Z. LittellZ. Littell★SP
5.0411360
K. WaldichukK. WaldichukRP
2.1233222
A. GranilloA. GranilloRP
0.2222200
C. PerezC. PerezRP
1.0100000
Team9.0966782

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

STL

  • A. Pallante
    88 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      36%·94.2 mph·8% whiff
    • SL
      26%·86.0 mph·25% whiff
    • KC
      15%·76.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      10%·86.6 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • SI
      43%·89.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      30%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      17%·80.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·92.2 mph·0% whiff
  • R. Stanek
    23 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      70%·97.5 mph·22% whiff
    • FS
      17%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·89.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      4%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Romero
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • ST
      57%·80.8 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      29%·92.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·84.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      5%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    13 pitches·38% CSW
    • SI
      38%·95.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      31%·91.4 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

WSH

  • Z. Littell
    70 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      36%·86.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      26%·90.8 mph·13% whiff
    • FS
      16%·83.2 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      14%·78.2 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      9%·90.3 mph·50% whiff
  • K. Waldichuk
    33 pitches·30% CSW
    • CU
      48%·79.9 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      42%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      3%·83.3 mph·— whiff
  • A. Granillo
    29 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      69%·83.4 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      21%·94.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      10%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Perez
    21 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      38%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·86.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·97.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SV
      14%·85.1 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

12

6

Runs

9

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

Apr 6STLSTL6@WSHWSH9today
Apr 7STLSTL7@WSHWSH6
Apr 8STLSTL6@WSHWSH1

Season series

WSH leads series 1-0

Apr 6STLSTL6@WSHWSH9today
Apr 7STLSTL7@WSHWSH6
Apr 8STLSTL6@WSHWSH1
Sep 19WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 19WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming
Sep 20WSHWSH@STLSTLupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL-11052%
WSHWSH-11052%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSTL ↔ WSH

Biggest swing: 41pp · Bottom 8th Inning

STLSTL
R. Urias

R. Urias

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 4 BB

WSHWSH
J. Wood

J. Wood

RF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

Z. Littell

Z. Littell

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 6 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

How it ended

WSH beat STL 9-6. Wood's play in the bottom 8th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (41pp).

Win probability

WSH vs STL

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 6th Inning · 3-2
+29pp→ 63% WP

Urías homered to center (414 feet), Gorman scored.

STLTop 8th Inning · 4-3
+30pp→ 74% WP

Walker · homered to right (378 feet).

WSHBottom 8th Inning · 6-6
+41pp→ 56% WP

Wood · homered to center (409 feet), Millas and Wiemer scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
STL0000120306
WSH20000106—9

Period scoring

STL won 2 · WSH won 2

0
2

Inn 1

Lile 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
0

Inn 5

Burleson 1

2
1

Inn 6

Young 1

0
0

Inn 7

3
6

Inn 8

Walker 1

Wood 3

0

Inn 9

STL
WSH

Play-by-play · 623 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  2. T9

    Winn grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

    +1pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  9. T9

    Cionel Perez pitches to Masyn Winn

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  10. T9

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  11. T9

    Gorman grounded out to second, Walker to third.

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

    +2pp

  12. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 3

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  16. T9

    Walker to second on wild pitch by Pérez.

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  17. T9

    Walker to second on wild pitch by Pérez.

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  18. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  19. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  20. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  22. T9

    Cionel Perez pitches to Nolan Gorman

    · ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  23. T9

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  24. T9

    Walker singled to right.

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

    −2pp

  25. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  29. T9

    Cionel Perez pitches to Jordan Walker

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

  30. T9

    ·

    STL 6·WSH 9

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

6

Runs

9

9

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

17

TB

25

2

HR

3

7

BB

7

8

K

4

16

LOB

14

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 8·STL -110/WSH -110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

WSH vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cade CavalliWSH
    5.9± 4.3low
  • Foster GriffinWSH
    5.5± 3.4low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • James WoodWSH
    1.3± 1.4high
  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    2.4± 2.0high
  • James WoodWSH
    2.3± 2.8high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Keibert RuizWSH
    1.0± 1.6high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • CJ AbramsWSH
    0.8± 1.2high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Zack LittellWSH
    2.8± 3.4low
  • Andre PallanteSTL
    2.6± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    48.9%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.6%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.1%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 3, 26sim 97
    304
    9(H)10
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    66
    9(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    247
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 94
    267
    20(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 94
    308
    4(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 17, 26sim 94
    2610
    20(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Nasim NunezWSH · 2B
    SPRINT29.899
  • Daylen LileWSH · LF
    SPRINT29.395
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • CJ AbramsWSH · SS
    SPRINT28.483
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872