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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+4CHC
CHC

CHC

6-6

6
2
TB

TB

5-7

Tropicana Field · St. Petersburg, Florida
20,483 attended

Line movement

10 snapshots

TB spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

TB no-vig %

51.1%

open 51.1%

+2.0+1.0TB SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL55.1%47.1%TB NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 28, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TB favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 6 · TB 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHC +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
CHC1000500006
TB0010000102

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 6, 26sim 97
    164
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 97
    27
    24(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 14, 26sim 97
    20
    9(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    25
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 11, 26sim 96
    22
    24(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    227
    28(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-105

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.9%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, Apr 8·Final/SeriesCHC win series 2-1/VegasTB -115

Recap · MLB

Chicago Cubs went into Tampa Bay Rays and beat them, 6–2.

CHC -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total pushed exactly on 8.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CHC · top performer

CHC
Nico Hoerner

Nico Hoerner

2B

1.800OPS

5-3

AB-H

2

R

2

RBI

TB · top performer

TB
Jonathan Aranda

Jonathan Aranda

1B

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
CHC6-6
6
2
TB5-7
CHC6-6·TB5-7
CHC

CHC

6-6

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
N. HoernerN. Hoerner★2B
3-55232100
SPRINT28.278
M. BuschM. Busch★1B
0-44000001
A. BregmanA. Bregman★3B
0-33000012
P. Crow-ArmstrongP. Crow-Armstrong★CF
0-44000001
C. KellyC. Kelly★C
2-44120000
SPRINT25.716
M. BallesterosM. Ballesteros★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT24.53
D. SwansonD. Swanson★SS
0-33100011
SPRINT27.867
M. ConfortoM. Conforto★RF
1-44112002
SPRINT2622
M. ShawM. Shaw★RF
1-33010010
Team8-3333684147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. ReaC. Rea★SP
5.0211220
H. MilnerH. MilnerRP
1.0000010
B. BrownB. BrownRP
2.0211030
H. HarveyH. HarveyRP
1.0100010
Team9.0522270
TB

TB

5-7

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
Y. DiazY. Diaz★DH
0-33000000
SPRINT25.716
J. ArandaJ. Aranda★1B
2-33121000
SPRINT25.29
J. FraleyJ. Fraley★RF
1-33011012
SPRINT28.278
J. CamineroJ. Caminero★3B
0-44000002
C. SimpsonC. Simpson★LF
1-44010000
SPRINT29.496
B. WilliamsonB. Williamson★2B
0-44000000
H. FeducciaH. Feduccia★C
0-33000012
J. DeLucaJ. DeLuca★RF
1-33110000
SPRINT2993
T. WallsT. Walls★SS
0-33000001
Team5-3030252027
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. BoyleJ. Boyle★SP
4.1465331
J. ScholtensJ. ScholtensRP
4.2400140
Team9.0865471

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

CHC

  • C. Rea
    79 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      39%·94.0 mph·10% whiff
    • FS
      16%·88.2 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      13%·82.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      10%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      6%·86.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·79.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Brown
    31 pitches·29% CSW
    • KC
      45%·87.7 mph·44% whiff
    • FF
      35%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·97.1 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      6%·90.0 mph·— whiff
  • H. Harvey
    16 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      44%·89.2 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      6%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      6%·86.5 mph·— whiff
  • H. Milner
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      40%·77.4 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      30%·84.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·86.5 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      10%·80.2 mph·0% whiff

TB

  • J. Boyle
    84 pitches·21% CSW
    • SL
      35%·90.0 mph·17% whiff
    • SI
      30%·97.8 mph·17% whiff
    • FF
      20%·97.8 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      10%·85.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FS
      6%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Scholtens
    61 pitches·30% CSW
    • SL
      36%·88.5 mph·9% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.0 mph·30% whiff
    • FF
      18%·93.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      11%·80.7 mph·33% whiff
    • FS
      5%·85.9 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

5

6

Runs

2

0

Errors

3

Current series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 6CHCCHC4@TBTB6
Apr 7CHCCHC9@TBTB2
Apr 8CHCCHC6@TBTB2today

Season series

CHC win series 2-1

Apr 6CHCCHC4@TBTB6
Apr 7CHCCHC9@TBTB2
Apr 8CHCCHC6@TBTB2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CHC -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

CHCCHC-10551%
TBTB-11553%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗SpreadBet CHC -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowCHC ↔ TB

Biggest swing: 18pp · Top 5th Inning

CHCCHC
N. Hoerner

N. Hoerner

2B

Batter of the game

3-for-5 · 1 HR · 1.800 OPS

C. Rea

C. Rea

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

TBTB
J. Aranda

J. Aranda

1B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

J. Scholtens

J. Scholtens

RP

Top reliever

4.2 IP · 4 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

CHC beat TB 6-2. Conforto's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (18pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

TB vs CHC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
CHCTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+10pp→ 58% WP

Kelly · doubled to left.

CHCTop 5th Inning · 4-1
+18pp→ 88% WP

Conforto · doubled to right, Kelly scored, Swanson scored on throwing error by right fielder Fraley and Ballesteros scored, Conforto safe at third on throwing error by first baseman Aranda.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
CHC1000500006
TB0010000102

Period scoring

CHC won 2 · TB won 2

1
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
1

Inn 3

Aranda 1

0
0

Inn 4

5
0

Inn 5

Conforto 3

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Fraley 1

0
0

Inn 9

CHC
TB

Play-by-play · 544 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    CHC 6·TB 2

  2. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  3. B9

    Feduccia struck out swinging.

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  9. B9

    Hunter Harvey pitches to Hunter Feduccia

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  10. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  11. B9

    Williamson grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 8 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  13. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  17. B9

    Simpson caught stealing third, catcher to third.

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  18. B9

    Simpson caught stealing third, catcher to third.

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  19. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  21. B9

    Simpson stole second.

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  22. B9

    Simpson stole second.

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  24. B9

    Hunter Harvey pitches to Ben Williamson

    · ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  25. B9

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  26. B9

    Simpson singled to left.

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

    +2pp

  27. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

  30. B9

    Hunter Harvey pitches to Chandler Simpson

    ·

    CHC 6·TB 2

Team stats

CHC

Away

Stat

TB

Home

6

Runs

2

8

Hits

5

0

Errors

3

14

TB

5

1

HR

0

4

BB

2

7

K

7

13

LOB

7

Betting line

CHC -1.5·O/U 8·CHC -105/TB -115

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

TB vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 76 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    6.0± 4.4low
  • Drew RasmussenTB
    5.1± 2.8low
  • Shane McClanahanTB
    5.0± 1.8low

Hits

  • Yandy DiazTB
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Alex BregmanCHC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Carson KellyCHC
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Yandy DiazTB
    2.4± 2.3high
  • Victor Mesa Jr.TB
    2.0± 2.3low
  • Junior CamineroTB
    1.9± 1.6high

RBIs

  • Jonathan ArandaTB
    0.8± 0.8high
  • Yandy DiazTB
    0.8± 1.4high
  • Ian HappCHC
    0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

  • Jameson TaillonCHC
    3.5± 2.9low
  • Colin ReaCHC
    2.7± 2.4low
  • Shota ImanagaCHC
    2.6± 3.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · CHC favored

  • Elo Static

    47.9%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.3%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    49.2%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.80 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Chandler SimpsonTB · LF
    SPRINT29.496
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC · CF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jonny DeLucaTB · RF
    SPRINT2993
  • Ben WilliamsonTB · 2B
    SPRINT28.381
  • Nico HoernerCHC · 2B
    SPRINT28.278