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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+6BOS
BOS

BOS

5-9

7
1
STL

STL

8-6

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
31,664 attended

Line movement

11 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

STL no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL48.9%40.9%STL NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 30, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 7 · STL 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +0pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0002000057
STL0000000101

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 26, 26sim 98
    25
    1(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 97
    166
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    169
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 96
    251
    23(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 4, 26sim 95
    25
    6(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 95
    164
    30(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

MLB·Sat, Apr 11·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 2-1/VegasBOS -136

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Marcelo Mayer

Marcelo Mayer

2B

1.250OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker

RF

1.833OPS

3-1

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS5-9
7
1
STL8-6
BOS5-9·STL8-6
BOS

BOS

5-9

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
R. AnthonyR. Anthony★LF
1-44210012
SPRINT27.457
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-55112000
SPRINT28.175
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-55121000
SPRINT29.294
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-44023002
SPRINT26.838
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-44000010
T. StoryT. Story★SS
0-44100011
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-22010020
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
2-44120000
SPRINT257
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-33111001
Team10-35357107056
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
6.0300260
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
0.2000100
D. CoulombeD. CoulombeRP
0.1000000
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0111021
R. WatsonR. WatsonRP
1.0100000
Team9.0511381
STL

STL

8-6

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
1-44010000
SPRINT27.560
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
0-44000001
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-33111112
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
0-33000012
R. UriasR. Urias★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT26.735
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
1-33010001
SPRINT27.148
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-22010000
SPRINT27.354
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-22000000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22000001
A. BurlesonA. Burleson1B
0-11000010
N. ChurchN. ChurchLF
0-11000000
Y. PozoY. PozoC
0-22000000
Team5-3131151138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. LeahyK. Leahy★SP
4.0322320
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
2.1100120
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.0000010
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.0655110
J. ShusterJ. ShusterRP
0.2000000
Team9.01077560

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • R. Suarez
    84 pitches·31% CSW
    • SI
      46%·90.4 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      18%·80.2 mph·38% whiff
    • FF
      14%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      11%·87.8 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      8%·73.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      2%·77.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      31%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·85.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      19%·81.3 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      19%·93.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      6%·81.6 mph·— whiff
  • R. Watson
    13 pitches·23% CSW
    • FF
      31%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      31%·94.6 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      15%·92.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·84.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.3 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • SL
      58%·86.3 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      42%·94.6 mph·33% whiff
  • D. Coulombe
    5 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      40%·88.7 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      40%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      20%·78.2 mph·— whiff

STL

  • K. Leahy
    71 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·93.3 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      30%·93.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      15%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      8%·82.0 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      8%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    43 pitches·12% CSW
    • SI
      63%·96.0 mph·12% whiff
    • ST
      23%·87.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.1 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    32 pitches·9% CSW
    • FF
      44%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      22%·89.1 mph·17% whiff
    • CU
      19%·83.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·96.3 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    11 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      82%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      9%·91.2 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      9%·78.6 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Shuster
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      50%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      25%·84.3 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      13%·92.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      13%·83.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

Hits

5

7

Runs

1

1

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 2-1

Apr 11BOSBOS2@STLSTL3
Apr 11BOSBOS7@STLSTL1today
Apr 12BOSBOS9@STLSTL3

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Apr 11BOSBOS2@STLSTL3
Apr 11BOSBOS7@STLSTL1today
Apr 12BOSBOS9@STLSTL3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-13658%
STLSTL+11347%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 23pp · Top 4th Inning

BOSBOS
M. Mayer

M. Mayer

2B

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.250 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 3 H · 2 BB

STLSTL
J. Walker

J. Walker

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS

K. Leahy

K. Leahy

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 2 K · 2 ER · 3 H · 3 BB

How it ended

BOS beat STL 7-1. Contreras's play in the top 4th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (23pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 2nd Inning · 0-0
+7pp→ 62% WP

Abreu · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Contreras out at second.

BOSTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+23pp→ 72% WP

Contreras · doubled to left, Duran scored and Anthony scored.

STLBottom 8th Inning · 2-1
+11pp→ 20% WP

Walker · homered to center (429 feet).

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0002000057
STL0000000101

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · STL won 1

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Contreras 2

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Walker 1

5
0

Inn 9

Durbin 2

BOS
STL

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 7·STL 1

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  3. B9

    Pozo grounded out to first.

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  7. B9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Yohel Pozo

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  8. B9

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  9. B9

    Church hit by pitch, Burleson to second.

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  11. B9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Nathan Church

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  12. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  13. B9

    Burleson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Fermín out at second.

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  16. B9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Alec Burleson

    · ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  17. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  18. B9

    Fermín singled to center.

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  21. B9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Jose Fermin

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  22. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  23. B9

    Urías grounded out to third.

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  27. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  28. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  29. B9

    Ryan Watson pitches to Ramon Urias

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

  30. B9

    Watson relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 7·STL 1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

STL

Home

7

Runs

1

10

Hits

5

1

Errors

0

11

TB

8

0

HR

1

5

BB

3

6

K

8

19

LOB

14

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7.5·BOS -136/STL +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 16 players in cohort
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Caleb DurbinBOS · 3B
    SPRINT28.175
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Dustin MaySTL
    2.6± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.9%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    49.5%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    48.5%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.