Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at DET?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Box Score — May 4, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

BOS

14-21

DET

18-18

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

22,321 attended

Line movement

99 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open -1.5 · +3.0

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.0 · +1.0

DET no-vig %

46.8%

open 65.7% · -18.9

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.7%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
50.6%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.28 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+18.91

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+179

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at DET?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

DET vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Tarik SkubalDET
6.3± 2.9low
Ranger SuarezBOS
5.7± 3.6low
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.4± 2.0medium

Hits

Dillon DinglerDET
1.4± 1.1high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
1.1± 0.9high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.0± 1.2high

Total bases

Dillon DinglerDET
2.4± 2.0high
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
2.1± 2.4high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.0± 3.2high

RBIs

Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
0.7± 1.3high
Dillon DinglerDET
0.7± 0.8high
Marcelo MayerBOS
0.6± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jake BennettBOS
2.7± 2.0low
Framber ValdezDET
2.6± 2.4medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BOS

league avg

DET

.692

OPS

.719

▶

.708

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.315

3.92

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.03

3.85

Team ERA

4.19

3.83

1.26

WHIP

1.31

1.27

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 5 · DET 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked DET +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BOS	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	5
DET	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DuranLF	.203	5	1	3	3	1	0	2
W. Contreras1B	.270	4	0	0	0	0	1	2
R. AnthonyLF	.229	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. StorySS	.207	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
W. AbreuRF	.297	4	1	1	1	0	1	2
C. RafaelaCF	.261	5	0	2	0	0	0	0
M. Mayer2B	.256	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
C. NarvaezC	.219	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
A. MonasterioSS	.220	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. YoshidaDH	.296	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
G. WhitlockRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ChapmanRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.165	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	5	12	5	1	3	11

Player

.203

.270

.229

.207

.297

.261

.256

.219

.220

.296

.000

.000

.165

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. TolleSP	7.0	1	2	0	1	8	83
G. WhitlockRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	2	26
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	3	4	2	2	11	122

Player

P. TolleSP

7.0

G. WhitlockRP

1.0

A. ChapmanRP

1.0

Team

9.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JonesDH	.200	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. VierlingCF	.205	3	1	0	1	0	1	0
D. DinglerC	.257	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
R. GreeneLF	.289	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. Torkelson1B	.217	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
W. PerezRF	.150	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Lee2B	.189	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Keith3B	.327	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
Z. ShortSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CarpenterRF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		31	4	3	3	0	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. HoltonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	22
T. MaddenSP	5.0	4	0	0	0	7	81
R. VanascoRP	0.2	3	4	4	1	0	25
E. De JesusRP	1.1	3	1	1	1	2	32
K. JansenRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	10
Team	9.0	12	5	5	3	11	170

Team

BOS

DET

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

DET vs BOS.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

DET vs BOS.

3 sub-models, blended.