MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

MON, 6:10 PM EDTModelDET55%

BOS

13-21

DET

18-17

Comerica Park · Detroit, Michigan

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 8.65

P. Tolle

0-1 · 3.38 ERA

T. Holton

0-1 · 5.27 ERA

Pregame · scouting report

The matchup, end-to-end.

Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.

Away starter

Payton Tolle

SP · #70

0-1

W-L

3.38

ERA

1.03

WHIP

10.2

Last 2 starts

@TORL(0-1)4.2 IP3 ER4 K

vsNYY-6.0 IP1 ER11 K

Home starter

Tyler Holton

RP · #87

0-1

W-L

5.27

ERA

1.90

WHIP

13.2

Last 3 starts

vsTEX-0.2 IP0 ER1 K

@ATL-1.0 IP2 ER1 K

@CIN-1.0 IP2 ER0 K

Vegas line

Spread-1.5

TotalO/U 8

Money-122 / +102

Model edge

Win prob45% / 55%

LeanHome · 5pp

ConfidenceLean

Head to head

SeriesDET wins series 2-0

TypePreseason Series

Place a bet

Pick a side.

Even matchup per the model — pick a side and we'll send you to the book.

-122Bet BOS ML↗-122Bet BOS ML↗

+102Bet DET ML↗+102Bet DET ML↗

Other markets

-1.5Bet the run line↗-1.5Bet the run line↗

O/U 8Bet the total↗O/U 8Bet the total↗

21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.

Projected lineups

Top of the order, top of mind.

Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.

BOS

1.J. DuranDH
2.W. Contreras1B
3.R. AnthonyLF
4.T. StorySS
5.W. AbreuRF
6.C. RafaelaCF
7.M. Mayer2B
8.C. NarvaezC
9.A. Monasterio3B

DET

1.J. JonesDH
2.M. VierlingCF
3.D. DinglerC
4.R. GreeneLF
5.S. Torkelson1B
6.W. PerezRF
7.H. Lee2B
8.C. Keith3B
9.Z. ShortSS

Line movement

61 snapshots

DET spread

+1.5

open -1.5 · +3.0

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.0 · +1.0

DET implied %

49.5%

open 68.7% · -19.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = DET favored. Pure CLV joins once moneyline closing-line ingest catches up across leagues.

Model vs marketEdge

DraftKings · snapped 5m ago

+7.5ppon

DET

BOSWin prob axisDET DET

Market 47%

Model 55%

0%50%100%

ModelDET 55%Pre-game prob

MarketDET 47%No-vig · 4.5% hold

Edge+7.5ppModel finds value

BOS -122/

DET +102

+102Bet DET ML↗+102Bet DET ML↗

The One modelLean

Mon, May 4

BOS

Red Sox

13-21

vs55%DET

DET★

Tigers

18-17

BOS 45%win prob55% DET

DET 1507 · BOS 1497Box score→

MLBMon, May 45/4 - 6:10 PM EDTSeriesDET wins series 2-0VegasBOS -122

Preview · MLB

oston Red Sox visit Detroit Tigers Monday at 5/4 - 6:10 PM EDT.

Vegas opened BOS as a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 8.0. DET's moneyline implies a 50% break-even, BOS the inverse. DET is on a back-to-back.

For bettors: the BOS side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 8.0 total reads defensive vs the league average.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Line just movedMoneyline ↗ 301 over 6h6m ago

Updated 0s ago

Tonight's box score

Every player. Every line.

BOS · DET

BOS

13-21

J. Duran★

OPS

0.451

H-AB

21-113

RBI

W. Contreras★

OPS

0.737

H-AB

33-118

RBI

R. Anthony★

OPS

0.491

H-AB

25-108

RBI

T. Story★

OPS

0.462

H-AB

27-130

RBI

W. Abreu★

OPS

0.694

H-AB

37-124

RBI

C. Rafaela★

OPS

0.538

H-AB

27-106

RBI

M. Mayer★

OPS

0.523

H-AB

21-86

RBI

C. Narvaez★

OPS

0.543

H-AB

16-70

RBI

A. Monasterio★

OPS

0.500

H-AB

10-46

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Duran★LF	21-113	15	3	0.451
W. Contreras★1B	33-118	21	7	0.737
R. Anthony★LF	25-108	5	1	0.491
T. Story★SS	27-130	18	2	0.462
W. Abreu★RF	37-124	14	4	0.694
C. Rafaela★CF	27-106	10	1	0.538
M. Mayer★2B	21-86	7	1	0.523
C. Narvaez★C	16-70	3	2	0.543
A. Monasterio★SS	10-46	8	1	0.500
Team	-----	--	--	—

P. Tolle★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
P. Tolle★SP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

DET

18-17

J. Jones★

OPS

0.579

H-AB

8-38

RBI

M. Vierling★

OPS

0.471

H-AB

15-70

RBI

D. Dingler★

OPS

0.693

H-AB

26-101

RBI

R. Greene★

OPS

0.677

H-AB

36-124

RBI

S. Torkelson★

OPS

0.613

H-AB

25-111

RBI

W. Perez★

OPS

0.429

H-AB

9-56

RBI

H. Lee★

OPS

0.515

H-AB

7-33

RBI

C. Keith★

OPS

0.626

H-AB

31-99

RBI

Z. Short★

OPS

—

H-AB

-----

RBI

Team total

H-AB

-----

RBI

Player	H-AB	RBI	HR	OPS
J. Jones★RF	8-38	5	2	0.579
M. Vierling★CF	15-70	13	1	0.471
D. Dingler★C	26-101	23	6	0.693
R. Greene★LF	36-124	19	4	0.677
S. Torkelson★1B	25-111	14	6	0.613
W. Perez★RF	9-56	5	2	0.429
H. Lee★3B	7-33	5	1	0.515
C. Keith★3B	31-99	6	0	0.626
Z. Short★3B	-----	--	--	—
Team	-----	--	--	—

T. Holton★

--.--

Team total

--.--

Player	IP	H	ER	K
T. Holton★RP	--.--	--	--	--
Team	--.--	--	--	--

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Apr 17

DET0@

BOS1

Apr 18

DET4@

BOS1

Apr 19

DET6@

BOS2

Apr 20

DET6@

BOS8

May 4

BOS@

DETtoday

May 5

BOS@

DETupcoming

May 6

BOS@

DETupcoming

Season series

DET wins series 2-0

Mar 6

BOS3@

DET11

Mar 10

DET7@

BOS2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6h

Moneyline

BOS-12255%

DET+10250%

301· 6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

+1.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats

BOSSP

P. Tolle

#70 · 0-1

ERA

3.38

—

Last 3 starts

4/28@

TOR4.2 IP · 3 ER · 4 KL(0-1)

4/23vs

NYY6.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K-

DETRP

T. Holton

#87 · 0-1

ERA

5.27

—

Last 3 starts

5/3vs

TEX0.2 IP · 0 ER · 1 K-

4/28@

ATL1.0 IP · 2 ER · 1 K-

4/25@

CIN1.0 IP · 2 ER · 0 K-

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order

BOS4L · 5R

1
J. Duran
DH
L
2
W. Contreras
1B
R
3
R. Anthony
LF
L
4
T. Story
SS
R
5
W. Abreu
RF
L
6
C. Rafaela
CF
R
7
M. Mayer
2B
L
8
C. Narvaez
C
R
9
A. Monasterio
3B
R

DET2L · 6R · 1S

1
J. Jones
DH
R
2
M. Vierling
CF
R
3
D. Dingler
C
R
4
R. Greene
LF
L
5
S. Torkelson
1B
R
6
W. Perez
RF
B
7
H. Lee
2B
R
8
C. Keith
3B
L
9
Z. Short
SS
R

Scouting report

BOS @ DET

5/4 - 6:10 PM EDT

Rest going in

BOSB2B

0 days

last game May 3

DETB2B

0 days

last game May 3

Model edge vs market

Lean only

Spread

Market

BOS -1.5

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Total

Market

8.0

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Moneyline

Market

BOS -122

Model

On the roadmap

Edge

—

Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+

Tale of the tape

BOSmetricDET

13-21

Record

18-17

#14

Conf rank

-0.6

Pt diff

+0.5

Streak

4-6

Last 10

5-5

Bullpen used yesterday

BOS

6.0 bullpen IP · heavy

T. Samaniego0.2 IP13 P
G. Weissert1.1 IP22 P
J. Moran0.2 IP11 P
G. Whitlock1.1 IP19 P
A. Chapman1.0 IP17 P
Z. Kelly1.0 IP19 P

L 3-1 · May 3

DET

8.3 bullpen IP · heavy

B. Hanifee1.2 IP24 P
B. Hurter3.1 IP38 P
R. Vanasco1.1 IP28 P
K. Finnegan1.0 IP10 P
B. Smith1.0 IP18 P

W 7-1 · May 3

Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

DET

Home

267

Hits

293

Errors

130

Runs

158

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 8·BOS -122/DET +102

DraftKings · via ESPN