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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1ARI
ARI

ARI

8-6

5
4
PHI

PHI

6-7

Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
41,683 attended

Line movement

13 snapshots

PHI spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

PHI no-vig %

62.2%

open 62.2%

-1.0-2.0PHI SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL66.2%58.2%PHI NO-VIG %May 4, 10 AMMay 29, 2 PM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 5 · PHI 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PHI +7pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
ARI0000500005
PHI4000000004

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+153

Close price

+153

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, Apr 10·Final/SeriesARI wins series 2-1/VegasPHI -186

Recap · MLB

Arizona Diamondbacks went into Philadelphia Phillies and beat them, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

ARI +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 8.0 OVER by 1.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ARI · top performer

ARI
James McCann

James McCann

C

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

2

RBI

PHI · top performer

PHI
Brandon Marsh

Brandon Marsh

LF

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
ARI8-6
5
4
PHI6-7
ARI8-6·PHI6-7
ARI

ARI

8-6

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
K. MarteK. Marte★2B
1-44112012
SPRINT26.225
I. VargasI. Vargas★1B
1-44111002
SPRINT26.941
G. PerdomoG. Perdomo★SS
1-33010012
G. MorenoG. Moreno★C
0-11000000
N. ArenadoN. Arenado★3B
0-44000001
J. FernandezJ. Fernandez★DH
1-44110001
SPRINT29.597
T. TawaT. Tawa★LF
0-33100010
A. ThomasA. Thomas★CF
1-44110000
SPRINT27.867
J. BarrosaJ. Barrosa★CF
1-44010002
J. McCannJ. McCannC
1-22012000
SPRINT25.29
Team7-33335750310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. SorokaM. Soroka★SP
5.25442101
J. LoaisigaJ. LoaisigaRP
1.0000030
J. MorilloJ. MorilloRP
1.1100030
P. SewaldP. SewaldRP
1.0100000
Team9.07442161
PHI

PHI

6-7

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
T. TurnerT. Turner★SS
1-55110002
SPRINT29.798
K. SchwarberK. Schwarber★DH
0-33100012
SPRINT25.818
B. HarperB. Harper★1B
2-44121001
SPRINT2744
B. MarshB. Marsh★LF
1-44113103
SPRINT28.175
B. StottB. Stott★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT28.688
A. GarciaA. Garcia★RF
0-44000002
A. BohmA. Bohm★3B
0-44000003
J.T. RealmutoJ.T. Realmuto★C
1-44010001
J. CrawfordJ. Crawford★CF
1-22010011
Team7-33334741216
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LuzardoJ. Luzardo★SP
4.2555380
J. BowlanJ. BowlanRP
1.1000010
B. KellerB. KellerRP
1.0000000
O. KerkeringO. KerkeringRP
1.0100000
T. BanksT. BanksRP
1.0100010
Team9.07553100

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

ARI

  • M. Soroka
    93 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      43%·93.7 mph·16% whiff
    • SV
      28%·80.5 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      14%·85.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      10%·93.5 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      5%·88.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Morillo
    26 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      54%·98.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      31%·92.3 mph·67% whiff
    • SL
      15%·84.1 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Loaisiga
    15 pitches·47% CSW
    • CU
      40%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      40%·96.6 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      13%·89.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.1 mph·— whiff
  • P. Sewald
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      78%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·83.8 mph·0% whiff

PHI

  • J. Luzardo
    86 pitches·34% CSW
    • ST
      34%·87.0 mph·56% whiff
    • FF
      26%·97.4 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      21%·86.8 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      20%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Bowlan
    19 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      47%·96.5 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      21%·84.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      11%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·97.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      5%·83.3 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      5%·87.2 mph·0% whiff
  • T. Banks
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      29%·90.4 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      21%·90.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·86.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      21%·80.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      7%·80.6 mph·— whiff
  • O. Kerkering
    13 pitches·15% CSW
    • ST
      46%·87.3 mph·20% whiff
    • FF
      23%·97.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      23%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      8%·92.0 mph·— whiff
  • B. Keller
    7 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·93.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·87.3 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

7

5

Runs

4

0

Errors

0

Current series

ARI wins series 2-1

Apr 10ARIARI5@PHIPHI4today
Apr 11ARIARI3@PHIPHI4
Apr 12ARIARI4@PHIPHI3

Season series

ARI leads series 1-0

Apr 10ARIARI5@PHIPHI4today
Apr 11ARIARI3@PHIPHI4
Apr 12ARIARI4@PHIPHI3
Sep 1PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 2PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming
Sep 2PHIPHI@ARIARIupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

ARIARI+15340%
PHIPHI-18665%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowARI ↔ PHI

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 5th Inning

ARIARI
J. McCann

J. McCann

C

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Soroka

M. Soroka

SP

Starting pitcher10-K game

5.2 IP · 10 K · 4 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

PHIPHI
B. Marsh

B. Marsh

LF

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

J. Luzardo

J. Luzardo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 8 K · 5 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

ARI beat PHI 5-4. McCann's play in the top 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

PHI vs ARI

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
PHIBottom 1st Inning · 0-1
+12pp→ 81% WP

Harper · doubled to right, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.

ARITop 5th Inning · 5-4
+27pp→ 58% WP

McCann · doubled to right, Vargas scored and Marte scored.

ARIBottom 9th Inning · 5-4
+18pp→ 100% WP

Turner · flied out to left.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
ARI0000500005
PHI4000000004

Period scoring

ARI won 1 · PHI won 1

0
4

Inn 1

Marsh 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

5
0

Inn 5

Marte 2

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

ARI
PHI

Play-by-play · 555 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  2. B9

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  3. B9

    Turner flied out to left.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

    −18pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  8. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Trea Turner

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  9. B9

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  10. B9

    Crawford tripled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

    +13pp

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  13. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Justin Crawford

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  14. B9

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  15. B9

    Realmuto lined out to third.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

    −8pp

  16. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  17. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to J.T. Realmuto

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  18. B9

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  19. B9

    Bohm lined out to center.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

    −9pp

  20. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  21. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  22. B9

    Paul Sewald pitches to Alec Bohm

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  23. B9

    Sewald relieved Morillo

    ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  24. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  25. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  26. T9

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  27. T9

    Marte struck out swinging.

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

    +2pp

  28. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  29. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

  30. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    ARI 5·PHI 4

Team stats

ARI

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

5

Runs

4

7

Hits

7

0

Errors

0

8

TB

14

0

HR

1

3

BB

2

10

K

16

14

LOB

10

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 8·ARI +153/PHI -186

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

PHI vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cristopher SanchezPHI
    7.8± 3.4low
  • Jesus LuzardoPHI
    6.5± 3.6low
  • Zack WheelerPHI
    5.7± 2.4low

Hits

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.6± 1.3high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    1.3± 1.2high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    1.2± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Ketel MarteARI
    3.0± 2.2high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    2.5± 2.8high
  • Corbin CarrollARI
    2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Ketel MarteARI
    1.1± 1.4high
  • Gabriel MorenoARI
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Kyle SchwarberPHI
    0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

  • Merrill KellyARI
    3.5± 3.5low
  • Andrew PainterPHI
    3.0± 3.0low
  • Zac GallenARI
    2.9± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    56.7%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.4%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    55.1%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.69 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • Apr 29, 26sim 98
    21
    14(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 97
    294
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    236
    8(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 25, 26sim 97
    62
    17(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 26, 26sim 96
    68
    17(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 15, 26sim 96
    283
    15(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort
  • Trea TurnerPHI · SS
    SPRINT29.798
  • Jose FernandezARI · DH
    SPRINT29.597
  • Bryson StottPHI · 2B
    SPRINT28.688
  • J.T. RealmutoPHI · C
    SPRINT28.381
  • Brandon MarshPHI · LF
    SPRINT28.175