Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at CHW?

The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Apr 28, 2026

FINAL+3CHW

LAA

12-19

CHW

13-17

Rate Field · Chicago, Illinois

11,857 attended

Line movement

51 snapshots

CHW spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

CHW no-vig %

44.7%

open 44.7%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CHW favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Logged before first pitch · graded in public

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.4%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
54.8%
P(CHW win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.7%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
53.4%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.64 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.7%

Close no-vig

44.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LAA at CHW?: The model favors CHW, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

CHW vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Davis MartinCHW
6.0± 2.8medium
Sean BurkeCHW
5.8± 1.8medium

Hits

Donovan WaltonLAA
1.3± 1.1high
Jo AdellLAA
1.2± 1.4high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Donovan WaltonLAA
2.3± 1.9high
Zach NetoLAA
2.2± 2.5high
Denzer GuzmanLAA
2.0± 2.3low

RBIs

Denzer GuzmanLAA
0.9± 1.7low
Donovan WaltonLAA
0.8± 1.1high
Andrew BenintendiCHW
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.8± 3.2low
Jose SorianoLAA
2.6± 2.1medium
Reid DetmersLAA
2.5± 2.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

CHW

.719

OPS

.718

▶

.729

.319

OBP

.319

4.53

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.66

4.67

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.42

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.34

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

LAA 2 · CHW 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked CHW +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	2
CHW	0	1	0	2	0	1	1	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. NetoSS	.240	5	0	1	0	0	0	4
M. TroutCF	.248	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
Y. Moncada3B	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. SolerDH	.235	3	0	1	0	0	1	2
N. Schanuel1B	.241	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. AdellRF	.262	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. LoweLF	.192	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
S. RiveroC	.500	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. Frazier2B	.265	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Grissom2B	.353	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. Peraza2B	.272	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		35	2	9	2	1	3	13

Player

.240

.248

.190

.235

.241

.262

.192

.500

.265

.353

.272

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SorianoSP	5.0	6	3	3	3	6	97
B. SuterRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	17
J. LucchesiRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	1	24
J. FerminRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	20
Team	8.0	9	5	5	4	9	158

Player

5.0

1.0

0.1

1.2

Team

8.0

158

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BenintendiDH	.213	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
M. Murakami1B	.241	5	1	1	0	0	0	4
M. Vargas3B	.214	2	0	1	0	0	2	1
C. MontgomerySS	.236	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
E. PereiraRF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. AntonacciLF	.216	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.333	3	2	2	3	2	0	0
L. AcunaCF	.186	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
D. HillRF	.229	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. HaysLF	.206	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Meidroth2B	.257	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		32	5	9	5	3	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MartinSP	5.2	7	1	1	1	7	98
S. NewcombRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	3	29
J. LeasureRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	12
S. DominguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	12
Team	9.0	9	2	2	3	13	151

Team

LAA

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

CHW vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

CHW vs LAA.

3 sub-models, blended.