
SF
8-12

WSH
9-11
Line movement
8 snapshots
WSH spread
+1.5
open +1.5
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
WSH no-vig %
43.7%
open 43.7%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
SF wins
SF 10 · WSH 5 (by 5)
Model verdict
✗ Missed
Picked WSH +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
an Francisco Giants went into Washington Nationals and beat them, 10–5.
SF -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 6.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
SF · top performer

Drew Gilbert
CF
3-1
AB-H
2
R
1
RBI
WSH · top performer

Daylen Lile
LF
3-1
AB-H
2
R
2
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


SF
8-12
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3-5 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.175 | ||||||||
| 1-5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.251 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.428 | ||||||||
| Team | 15-41 | 41 | 10 | 15 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 6.0 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
WSH
9-11
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.483 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.891 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
SPRINT29.395 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3-4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.662 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 8-34 | 34 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.0 | 11 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| 3.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantSF
WSH
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
15
Hits
8
10
Runs
5
2
Errors
0
Current series
SF wins series 2-1
Season series
SF leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
SF -1.5
Total
8.5
Standard · 0.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
8.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 16pp · Top 2nd Inning
D. Gilbert
CFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
L. Webb
SPStarting pitcher
6.0 IP · 6 K · 3 ER · 7 H · 2 BB
D. Lile
LFBatter of the game
1-for-3 · 1 HR · 1.833 OPS
Z. Littell
SPStarting pitcher
4.0 IP · 4 K · 8 ER · 11 H · 1 BB
How it ended
SF beat WSH 10-5.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
WSH vs SF
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactRamos · homered to center (416 feet), Schmitt scored and Lee scored.
Chapman · singled to center, Gilbert scored and Adames scored.
Mead · lined into double play, third to first, House doubled off first.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Period scoring
SF won 2 · WSH won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Ramos 3
Inn 3
House 1
Inn 4
Gilbert 1
Lile 2
Inn 5
Inn 6
Tena 1
Inn 7
Schmitt 1
Wood 1
Inn 8
Inn 9
Ramos 1
Play-by-play · 602 plays
End of the 9th inning
SF 10·WSH 5
·
SF 10·WSH 5
House grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Ruiz out at second.
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
−0.7pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Blade Tidwell pitches to Brady House
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Wood flied out to right.
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
−1pp
Pitch 6 : Ball In Play
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 3 : Ball 3
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 2 : Ball 2
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Blade Tidwell pitches to James Wood
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
·
SF 10·WSH 5
Ruiz hit by pitch.
·
SF 10·WSH 5
+1pp
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
SF 10·WSH 5
Blade Tidwell pitches to Keibert Ruiz
·
SF 10·WSH 5
Tidwell relieved Kilian
·
SF 10·WSH 5
Bottom of the 9th inning
SF 10·WSH 5
Middle of the 9th inning
SF 10·WSH 5
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Susac grounded out to first.
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 4 : Ball In Play
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Richard Lovelady pitches to Daniel Susac
· ·
SF 10·WSH 5
Team stats
SF
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
10
Runs
5
15
Hits
8
2
Errors
0
27
TB
15
3
HR
2
3
BB
3
7
K
9
16
LOB
16
Betting line
SF -1.5·O/U 8.5·SF -143/WSH +119
The receipts
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+119
Close price
+119
Open no-vig
43.7%
Close no-vig
43.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohortPlayer projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 69 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
49.3%
ensemble · SF favored
Elo Static
51.6%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.1%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
51.7%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.26 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs